Environmental Policy
Jack Darin at the Illinois Sierra Club points us towards Al Gore’s speech concerning the environment in the wake of Katrina
There are scientific warnings now of another onrushing catastrophe. We were warned of an imminent attack by Al Qaeda; we didn’t respond. We were warned the levees would break in New Orleans; we didn’t respond. Now, the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming. A scientist at MIT has published a study well before this tragedy showing that since the 1970s, hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific have increased in duration, and in intensity, by about 50 %. The newscasters told us after Hurricane Katrina went over the southern tip of Florida that there was a particular danger for the Gulf Coast of the hurricanes becoming much stronger because it was passing over unusually warm waters in the gulf. The waters in the gulf have been unusually warm. The oceans generally have been getting warmer. And the pattern is exactly consistent with what scientists have predicted for twenty years. Two thousand scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate, well organized scientific collaboration in the history of humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming. [applause] It is important to learn the lessons of what happens when scientific evidence and clear authoritative warnings are ignored in order to induce our leaders not to do it again and not to ignore the scientists again and not to leave us unprotected in the face of those threats that are facing us right now. [applause]
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The scientists are telling us that what the science tells them is that this – unless we act quickly and dramatically – that Tucson tied its all-time record for consecutive days above 100 degrees. this, in Churchill’s phrase, is only the first sip of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year until there is a supreme recover of moral health. We have to rise with this occasion. We have to connect the dots. When the Superfund sites aren’t cleaned up, we get a toxic gumbo in a flood. When there is not adequate public transportation for the poor, it is difficult to evacuate a city. When there is no ability to give medical care to poor people, its difficult to get hospital to take refugees in the middle of a crisis. When the wetlands are turned over to the developers then the storm surges from the ocean threaten the coastal cities more. When there is no effort to restrain the global warming pollution gasses then global warming gets worse, with all of the consequences that the scientific community has warned us about.
Tie that in to this peach where the federal government appears ready to try and use evidence of particular levee opposition to environmentalists and you get some perfect examples of what is wrong with the Bush Administration. What is perhaps most ironic in this is that opposition to levees usually occurs because of a lack of wetlands–something that in the Gulf Coast region is especially problematic because barrier islands tend to slow hurricanes before they make landfall on the mainland.
Here’s a hurricane expert that disagrees with the one you cite. And Dr. Gray points out that the source of funding–VP Gore is specifically mentioned–may tend to result in the slant of the funder.
Global Warming
From Capitalism Magazine
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Interview with Meteorologist Dr. William Gray
by James K. Glassman (September 12, 2005)
Summary: “I mean, there’s almost an equation you can write the degree to which you believe global warming is causing major hurricanes to increase is inversely proportional to your knowledge about these storms.”
[www.CapMag.com]
Meteorologist Dr. William Gray may be the world?s most famous hurricane expert. More than two decades ago, as professor of atmospheric science and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, he pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting. Each December, six months before the start of hurricane season, the now 75-year-old Gray and his team issue a long-range prediction of the number of major tropical storms that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as well as the number of hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) and intense hurricanes (with winds of at least 111 mph). This year, Gray expects more activity, with 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes. Four of them, he says, will be intense.
James Glassman: Dr. Gray, in the September issue of Discover Magazine, there?s a remarkable interview with you. You?re called the world?s most famous hurricane?
Dr. William Gray: Well that ? you have to talk to my critics about that. I don?t think they would agree with you.
Glassman: Well you certainly?
Gray: I?ve been around a long time, yes. I?ve been around studying hurricanes over 50 years now, I?m an old guy. Yes.
Glassman: Well, you?re in the hurricane forecasting business among other things?
Gray: Well, we?re in the seasonal hurricane forecasting business, and monthly. We don?t do the short range, you know, one to two day crucial forecasts. That can only be done by one group at the National Hurricane Center. But we certainly do a lot of forecasting for different parts of the globe and the hurricane from a seasonal, monthly point of view. Yes.
Glassman: And from a seasonal, monthly point of view, you had been predicting a growing number of hurricanes. Now, my question is in the wake of Katrina and some of the statements that we?ve heard immediately afterwards by advocates of the global warming theory ? is global warming behind this increase in hurricanes?
Gray: I am very confident that it?s not. I mean we have had global warming. That?s not a question. The globe has warmed the last 30 years, and the last 10 years in particular. And we?ve had, at least the last 10 years, we?ve had a pick up in the Atlantic basin major storms. But in the earlier period, if we go back from 1970 through the middle ?90s, that 25 year period ? even though the globe was warming slightly, the number of major storms was down, quite a bit down.
Now, another feature of this is that the Atlantic operates differently. The other global storm basins, the Atlantic only has about 12 percent of the global storms. And in the other basins, the last 10 years ? even though the Atlantic major storm activity has gone up greatly the last 10 years. In the other global basins, it?s slightly gone down. You know, both frequency and strength of storms have not changed in these other basins. If anything, they?ve slightly gone down. So if this was a global warming thing, you would think, ?Well gee, all of the basins should be responding much the same.?
Glassman: You?re familiar with what your colleagues believe. Do you think many hurricane experts would take a different point of view, and would say, ?Oh, it?s global warming that?s causing hurricanes??
Gray: No. All my colleagues that have been around a long time ? I think if you go to ask the last four or five directors of the national hurricane center ? we all don?t think this is human-induced global warming. And, the people that say that it is are usually those that know very little about hurricanes. I mean, there?s almost an equation you can write the degree to which you believe global warming is causing major hurricanes to increase is inversely proportional to your knowledge about these storms.
Now there?s a few modelers around who know something about storms, but they would like to have the possibility open that global warming will make for more and intense storms because there?s a lot of money to be made on this. You know, when governments step in and are saying this ? particularly when the Clinton administration was in ? and our Vice President Gore was involved with things there, they were pushing this a lot. You know, most of meteorological research is funded by the federal government. And boy, if you want to get federal funding, you better not come out and say human-induced global warming is a hoax because you stand the chance of not getting funded.
Glassman: We thank you very, very much for this interview. Thank you, Dr. Gray.
Gray: Well thank you for asking me.
I am convinced myself that in 15 or 20 years, we?re going to look back on this and see how grossly exaggerated it all was. The humans are not that powerful. These greenhouse gases, although they are building up, they cannot cause the type of warming these models say ? two to five degrees centigrade with a doubling of the greenhouse gases.
Glassman: Well thank you very much for giving us your time.
First appeared in Tech Central Station.
About the Author: James K. Glassman is the host of TechCentralStation.com.
Right Cal. And no one expected the levees to break. Or were people believeing the odd nut who said that there was disagreement in the “scientific” community about the levees breaking.
I was in the U.S. Budget Bureau handling the Small Business Adminstration budget when Hurrican Betsy came in 1965. Hale Boggs, whom I believe was House Whip, got everything he asked for, even to the point of forgiveness for $12,000 (as I remember the figure) of any disaster loan from the SBA.
It appears this powerful Southern Democrat should have asked for higher levees.
Perhaps the previous poster would like to comment on the main ponits made by Dr. Gray, whom this article says “pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting”:
“…there’s almost an equation you can write the degree to which you believe global warming is causing major hurricanes to increase is inversely proportional to your knowledge about these storms.”
Two (now infamous) quotes sum it up:
“The adults are in charge, now.” Dick “Big Time” Cheney, as the “adults” were taking charge.
“Thank God George W. Bush is our president.” Rudy Giuliani, former Democrat, whoring it up at the 2004 GOP Convention