The Wide Open Illinois Congressional Races

Illinois has 19 Congressional seats this year and other than for Luis Gutierrez deciding not to retire, it would have 4 open seats, one strong primary Democratic primary challenge, one high money challenger in Republican leaning seat with a Democratic incumbent, and a strong challenge to a Republican in a Democratic leaning District, one Republican Freshman in a traditionally Republican, but trending towards swing District, and a wealthy nuclear scientist running against an entrenched, but largely unknown Republican incumbent.

The Open Seats:

IL-11 Map
2004
Bush 53%
Kerry 46%

2000
Bush 50%
Gore 48%

Cook Index +1 R
Likely Republicans? Not sure, though Weller friends have been suggested.

Likely Democrats? Two lightweights announced, but the big fish is Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson who is being pursued by Emily’s List and presumably DCCC. If Halvorson takes a pass, other Democrats might look at the race again given the year and that Weller is retiring.
The problem with the District is that it’s spread out, the TV market is split cross including the very expensive Chicago market, and the urban areas are fairly different from one another. It does have a strong union membership in areas including Will County and the west side of Bloomington in McLean County. Whomever runs, they have to run outside of their home turf making it all the more difficult.

Given what looks to be a very strong year for Democrats, this is probably a true tossup depending on who runs. Halvorson is the favorite if she runs and has the ability to raise money on her own. She’s also incredibly likeable as a candidate. Republicans are largely unknown in the area, though we could see some bigger names jump including people like Bill Brady from Bloomington. While I believe he’s in the 15th District, that’s hardly stopped anyone in Illinois in recent years.

IL-14 Map

2004
Bush 55%
Kerry 44%

2000
Bush 54%
Gore 42%

Cook Index +5

Fascinating fact. The two longest serving Republican Speakers of the House came from IL-14 with Hastert number one, and the infamous Joseph Cannon, number two.

Likely Republicans? Three are running: State Senator Chris Lauzen, Investor Jim Oberweis, and Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns. Most presume Lauzen or Oberweis will win the nomination with Oberweis having the backing of Dennis Hastert who apparently cannot stand Chris Lauzen. Lauzen has a better grass roots following and the backing of wealthy arch-conservative political activist, Jack Roeser. Lauzen has a particularly thin skin and even sued an opponent for defamation over whether Lauzen was a CPA or not. To never have to face the issue again, Lauzen attempted to change his legal name to Chris Lauzen, CPA. The judge denied the request. Oberweis has ridden anti-immigrant politics for most of his career and has lost three state-wide races in the primaries and lost his bid to be Kane County Republican Chair after the third loss. Burns is relatively moderate compared to these two wingnuts and has no chance in hell in the Republican Primary. If someone doesn’t get sued by the end of this primary, I’ll be shocked.

Likely Democrats? Three are running with last cycle’s nominee John Laesch getting a lot of national netroots support, but derision from the local netroots. Jonathan Stein is running as well and has some progressive supporters. Bill Foster, a Fermilab scientist is running and is willing to put $1 million of his own money into the primary. Foster probably has the leg up, but Laesch supporters claim to have a better grassroots operation. The October 15th FEC filings should tell the story for the primary.

This is a nightmare district again with the District spanning three television markets and most of the width of the state. It runs from the outskirts of the Quad City area into western DuPage County. The majority of the population is centered in the Chicago outer suburbs. Given the likely hijinks and silliness in the Republican Primary, the general should be close. Both Lauzen and Oberweis have either records or opinions that can be used against them.
IL-18 Map

2004
Bush 58 %
Kerry 42%

2000
Bush 53%
Gore 43%

Cook Partisan Index +5 R

Likely Republicans: Aaron Schock, current State Representative, businessman Jim McConoughey, and John Morris, a former Peoria City Council Member. Schock is the prohibitive favorite. He’s one of the few bright spots on the Republican bench in Illinois and he appears to be a complete wingnut. A wingnut who people happen to think is very moderate, but not so much. He’s very personable, has lots of establishment backing, and access to cash. It would be a shock if he doesn’t take the primary and he will be an incredibly tough general election candidate with less than a 3% disapproval of which most of that resides at Peoria Pundit.

Like Democrats: Former Bradley Men’s Basketball and Indiana Pacers Coach Dick Versace who may be the Dems can find. He has good name recognition, but also is known as a bit unserious and somewhat polarizing as a figure. But he could raise cash and he’s always entertaining. Former State Representative Bill Edley has also discussed the race, but doesn’t want to fight in a primary. He seems to understand it would be a hard race and take a lot of time on the trail.

The District is gerrymandered to exclude any pockets of labor outside of the Peoria area skirting Springfield and going down toe Jacksonville. With Schock, this is the least likely pick-up opportunity unless a Democrat can raise his negatives fast.

How will these three end up?  Pick-ups in IL-11 & IL-14, Republican hold in IL-18.  Primarily the political environment is so bad in the state of Illinois this year and given the candidates they are fielding, the Democrats have real shots at both seats and probably stronger candidates.  Schock in Peoria will be strong and probably hold that seat safely.