Everyone has been coy for a few days about a lot of weird signals, but Kristen McQueary put them all together and Rich confirms them today.
If U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller runs for re-election, he may face two feisty gals: Debbie and Emily.
Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete) is considering running for the 11th District congressional seat, in part because of hot pursuit from Emily’s List, a prominent fundraising group in Washington, D.C., that supports pro-choice Democratic women. Halvorson is meeting with Emily’s List recruiters this month to discuss a possible congressional bid.
Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I’m told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That’s a long commute.
Halvorson, meanwhile, is halfway through her current term. She could challenge Weller or any GOP hopeful without giving up her Senate position. The question for Halvorson is: Does she want it?
“I don’t know if I want to be one person out of 435,” she said Tuesday. “Compared to, possibly, being the first-ever woman Senate president, I don’t know. It’s a big decision.”
Weller still has time to pass petitions, but it’s odd that he isn’t yet. Given he is now in the minority and has not done well advancing within the Party, he may well opt out.
The subpoena is less of a big deal, though it does add to the noise. Most likely the subpoenas are fishing expeditions, though it could theoretically expose widespread problems in the appropriations process. I would expect the subpoenas to be quashed though and so don’t expect that to be anything. I think it is safe to say, he’s making the Illinois GOP nervous.
On the other hand:
Run, Debbie, Run.
From the Almanac of American Politics:
| 2004 Presidential Vote | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bush (R) | 162,779 | (53%) |
| Kerry (D) | 140,619 | (46%) |
Pavich came in at 45% of the vote with a fairly low spending campaign. Halvorson should enter the race with a money advantage over any Republican candidate given the RNCC is not raising much and is playing defense in a number of districts. Retirements are high this cycle and there won’t be enough money to go around. On the other hand DCCC is raising a ton as is EMILY’s List and Halvorson can fundraise on her own. Once you have the District, there is only one cycle left under the current map and the new maps will likely be created to help Democrats. This might well be a good reason to retire for Weller as well since he has few protectors amongst the Republican establishment to try and carve out a safe District with what little capital Republicans will have for the remap.
Thanks Larry… always appreciated. GO DEBBIE!