I remember mostly watching then DNC Head David Wilhelm and RNC Head Hailey Barbour on CNN with Larry King discussing the race and Wilhelm not being particularly happy about the entire evening. But when it came to rubbing it in, Barbour just said, look, the guy came to us with a poll in the last few days and so we sent money in. We had no idea it was going to be a race.
But a District like that doesn’t stay the opposite party. Bringing up the question that assuming you all work for Melissa Bean this weekend will she be able to hold it in two years? Zorn says no, but he’s forgetting one thing–the GOP will have a primary and I’m betting on the unamed as of yet wingnut to emerge to allow Bean to cement the District until next redistricting cycle when she’s given a safe seat.
Sound outlandish? Alan Keyes.
If Crain was a still the same ‘Wing Nut’ he is now but actually paid attention to what was going on his district he would not be having nearly the problems he is now.
It will hard for her to hold however, even against a ‘Wing Nut’ in two years. Congressman Salvi?
OneMan
Suburbs are trending Democrat. As you point out, AP, it’s because the GOP has been hijacked by freaks. FREAKS.
Outlandish? Alan Keyes.
The power of incumbency gives a strong way to backhand anyone who is very conservative. If the Republicans nominate someone who is far to the right–as they’ve been doing in many races, they’ll lose. Salvi is pretty conservative, but nowhere near as conservative as an original movement conservative as Crane. Salve may face a primary challenge from the right. It’ll be fun to watch too.
Ok, you guys need to stop saying “Alan Keyes” like that — I keep hearing “Denny Crane” in my head whenever you do that.
(And if none of you watch Boston Legal, then none of you understand that…)
The Illinois GOP will do everything it can behind the scenes to get Keyes to leave. He’s a loud reminder of how low the party has sunk. And his continued visibility in the media will be a drag on the party.
Flanagan is the wrong historical analogy. When he won, it was by no means settled that he would be a one-termer. The fact that he was an ineffective congressman and a lazy campaigner did him in as much as his politics.
My suggestion for a better analogy is Loretta Sanchez, the woman who defeated “B-1 Bob” Dornan in 1996. Like the 8th CD, Dornan’s Orange County district was considered a conservative bastion, but was facing demographic changes. Sanchez’s defeat of Dornan is as much of a surprise as Bean’s surge. And both Bean and Sanchez are smart, moderate candidates.
Sanchez is still in Congress, and (coincidentally) so is her sister. If Bean wins, I’d expect a tough re-election, but as along as she works the district and avoids becoming a liberal stereotype, she’s got a good shot at re-election — the demographics work in her favor.
I make no prediction about her siblings.
I agree Sanchez seems a better analogy than Flanagan.