I don’t have a permalink, but I had an article forwarded to me:
Concerns that Rep. Phil Crane, R-Ill., may have trouble in the upcoming election are being dismissed as “overblown” by some folks close to him.
The Democrats are saying that Crane, currently the longest-serving member of the House GOP Conference, has become “a lobbyist-dependent Washington insider.”
The “anxiety began to bubble over in June,” the Chicago Tribune reported, when GOP Rep. Ray LaHood said in an interview that Crane could be the election’s “November surprise.”
“The problem is he really just has not worked (his district) that well. He hasn’t paid attention to it,” said LaHood, who has since backed from his observation. Crane, meanwhile, is touting his frequent visits to the district over the last three months and his seniority as chairman of the House’s Trade Subcommittee.
A recent poll conducted for his opponent, Democrat businesswoman Melissa Bean, showed that 36 percent of voters in the district “are inclined” to re-elect Crane, but one prominent business lobbyists who is following the race closely says people should not be concerned. “The district is solidly GOP. For Bean to win it would require a convergence of anomalies that would be biblical in scope.”
“Crane is prepared for a fight,” he said, while “the rest of the Illinois GOP delegation are pouring a lot of resources into the race.”
(That’s Politics! looks at the inner workings of the American political process and is written by UPI’s Peter Roff, a 20-year veteran of the Washington scene.)
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I, of course, hope that is the attitude, but I’d say looking at the demographics, the likely low turnout in the District, and the money Bean is raising, this is going to be a very hot race. One thing to consider is that a challenger who can raise enough money can challenge and Bean is doing that and that poll will pull in the DCCC. Especially with no TV (just useless in such a market) and no record to run against with Bean, Crane is going to have a really hard time framing the debate in terms beneficial to him. He has to have a strong turnout in his District, and there is little evidence he can produce that anymore.
Of course, I could be wrong.