The Comeback

While many see the imminent demise of Blagojevich as done, he’s got some powerful cards still to play. The reason Topinka is such a strong challenger is that she is the only Republican he can’t paint into a corner on issues such as abortion rights and other social issues. LaHood falls into a second category of someone who is hard to hit, but only because he comes off as folksy.

The rest of the Republican field has attached itself ot a social conservatism that doesn’t play well with swing voters. With Democrats having about a 10% or more advantage in ID in Illinois, those swing voters are already skewed towards Democratic positions.

That’s why the order to dispense birth control at pharmacies that carry such pharmaceuticals. His position has 80% support nationwide, yet in a primary social conservatives are going to have a hard time not siding with those opposed to the rule because of the influence of pro-life groups in the primary. Obviously Judy is exempt given she is pro-choice, but she already lost that vote and is counting on the others to split social conservatives in a divided primary.

With loons comparing him to Slobodan Milosevich, he gets three or four days of attacking his opponent for not denouncing such language when the group backs the inevitable opponent’s positive press from Pharmacists for Life. Oh, and his opponents will be practicing politics as usual, you know, the politics he came to change.

On cultural issues other than abortion he has taken positions that many swing voters are concerned about including violence and sex in video games. While on the internet it gets howls of protest, it’s a smart move politically. Whether it does any good or not, he gets to get up and tell moms that he tried to shield their children from gratuitous sex and violence and give a lecture about responsibility. Sure, the press rolls their eyes, but so what? They’ve been rolling their at him for 2 years (and so have I). He’s against gay marriage, but signed landmark legislation to protect gays and lesbians from discrimination–a position that has 60%+ support in the general public.

So he has taken strong positions on choice–positions that are supported more than just by the core pro-choice audience and he has taken strong positions on violence and sex in the culture that suburban women consistently point to as one of the things that they feel most worried about with their children so a crusading social conservative doesn’t get any traction.

But, but…what about the budget? Yeah, what about it? He hasn’t raised general taxes. He has raised specific taxes that most people don’t feel directly. He has gimmicked the budget, but who actually follows budget negotiations? People who read blogs, that’s who and there just aren’t that many out there.

He has also held his hand out to African-Americans and Latinos after a shaky start and seems to have the Jackson’s backing and in his recent letter Guitierrez signs on as well as Rush.

If the election is one of social issues, Rod Blagojevich is a two term Governor and while gritting their teeth, the press writes stories about him being the Comeback Kid and who knows what else is possible.

The wild cards out there are three. One, how much scandal is out there. Because there are so many scandals in Illinois, who to blame might end up at his feet or it might end up diffuse and thrown on the system as a whole. George Ryan’s trial is likely to be going on during next election and while many social conservatives view Ryan as a RINO, he’s a Republican to the average voter and under those circumstances, it’ll be hard to tar Blagojevich. If, however, the press keeps finding scandals like the cleaning contract, the Governor is in trouble, but if it stops now, the blunders fall from the public mind while others replace him and in that case, his break from Mell may even help him.

The second wildcard is his mouth. How do we know this? Testicularvirility.com was taken up within 48 hours of him saying it and done through a hidden registration process so no one knows who did it, but it might be the same folks who registered Blagorgeous.com. Just guessing because the other likely candidate would probable tell us if he did.

Third, does the act just wear thin. The problem with this is the US Senate is full of people who are thought to be shameless media whores. Hell, the Dems nominated a guy for President with the nickname LiveShot in Boston because he’ll show up anywhere for a Liveshot on the nightly news.

The Republican primary is set up to be a fight over who can be the most holy. Topinka goes left and hopes for the party not to coalesce around a single social conservative. If she wins, Blagojevich runs against the old ways attempting to be an outsider and I figure it’s 50-50 who wins.

If LaHood takes it, 60-40 odds (not percentages) for Blagojevich as he backs LaHood into uncomfortable positions and exploits conservative distrust over LaHood attacking Fitzgerald. Rauschenberger is a wild card because he has to raise cash, but also is tied to Keyes. G-Rod takes the rest of the field.

Right now the Republican primary is the best thing Rod Blagojevich has going for him. And the frightening thing is that he and his political people know it and have set themselves up to win that fight.