2008

So Complicated

It appears Oberweis Dairy might have violated the law by engaging in public dissemination of press materials about the race.  It’s a fairly complicated area of campaign finance law to be sure, but it wouldn’t be the first violation for Helicopter Jim….in this cycle, or in this way.

Using corporate resources, a private public relations consultant and a private law firm, Oberweis Dairy – two days before the election – intervened in Oberweis’s favor, attacking the ads and purporting to file a frivolous lawsuit against the DCCC to stop them. The corporate press release accused the DCCC of “misleading the public.” It also referred to Mr. Oberweis and the fact the he is “running for Congress.” This press release is a public communication; it was disseminated within 90 days of an election; it references a federal candidate; and it was almost certainly produced in coordination with that candidate. Thus, it is a corporate “coordinated communication” in violation of 2 U.S.C. § 441b(a) and 11 C.F.R. § 109.21. (See Exhibit C.)

Beyond any doubt, this press offensive and sham litigation represent illegal corporate expenditures. Even if one were to assume that the lawsuit has actually been filed, [1] and that it actually presented a meritorious claim, no press release was necessary to secure any rights of the corporation. Indeed, the sole purpose of a press release is to generate news stories. This particular release, issued in the eleventh hour before the election, was produced via corporate resources and issued only to shape the news coverage in connection with the special election. Thus, it is a blatant and clear violation of the ban against corporate political expenditures in federal elections.

The Commission should immediately investigate this violation of the conciliation agreement, and should institute a civil action for relief in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia against Jim Oberweis and Oberweis Dairy to enforce the conciliation agreement. It should stop, once and for all, Jim Oberweis’s repeated and transparent attempts to convert Oberweis Dairy resources to the support of his failing campaigns.

Houston, We Have a Lawsuit

I owe Chris Lauzen and John Zahm apologies (Zahm was a volunteer, not employee of Lauzen’s campaign). I figured the lawsuits would start in the primary-probably with Zahm.

Nope.   The Oberweis family sues first!

The content of the DCCC piece is not my favorite argument given it was a contractor, but at the same time if you are going to insist you are sending 12 million people back to Mexico in a few months, the irony is wonderful.  It’s definitely not lawsuit material.  Except, in the 14th.

I knew if I held out, someone would come through in this race….

Not Surprisingly, Winning Big States in a Primary Doesn’t Matter

It’s perhaps one of the weirdest arguments ever made about a nominating process, having more delegates matters less than winning the right states.  The apparent claim is that when one wins a state in the primary, that makes you more likely to win it in the general election.

It’s a dumb argument because, well, the general election is a different electorate and so winning a state in a primary doesn’t mean you can carry it in the general election.

Case in point, look at the Survey USA poll of McCain-Obama, McCain-Clinton matchups.

The maps are only a snapshot in time and I’m sure they would change over an election, but Democrats take Ohio in both cases and Obama, who hasn’t even campaigned in Michigan, wins Michigan, Clinton doesn’t.   That Obama makes inroads in some deeply red states is what is most interesting to me, while Clinton survives only by taking the safe Democratic states and a few swings.

He also loses New Jersey according to the survey which will only happen in bizarro world after an actual general election campaign just as Clinton isn’t going to lose Oregon and Washington.

Obama, according to the poll loses Pennsylvania and Florida–two places he hasn’t yet spent time in so this is likely to change if he does campaign in both places–or at least Pennsylvania will likely change.

The thing that makes all of this interesting is that Clinton’s only way to win the nomination is to have superdelegates vote against the plurality of the elected delegates.  In one case that is reasonable if she creates popular vote margin in the contests, but if Obama wins the most popular votes and the most elected delegates, it’s hard to imagine how superdelegates would justify voting against the Democratic electorate.  The only argument to even make that plausible is that Obama cannot win states like Ohio that are swing states–but the polling tells another story.

Hey Look–Over There, Ken Starr!

Howard Wolfson reminds us all that Mark Penn isn’t the only asshole in the Clinton campaign:

“When Senator Obama was confronted with questions over whether he was ready to be Commander-in-Chief and steward of the economy, he chose not to address those questions, but to attack Senator Clinton,” Wolfson said. “I for one do not believe that imitating Ken Starr is the way to win a Democratic primary election for president.”