Given I’m getting asked in comments and Brownsox ran a big piece on it, I’ll cover it again. As Rich said the other day, anyone who says they know what Blagojevich will do is kidding themselves.
The big three are almost certainly out in Giannoulias, Hynes, and LMadigan. One theory holds that Blagojevich will appoint one to reduce the potential primary opponents. However, for Blagojevich there is safety in numbers so appointing any one of them hurts him. He thinks he does best in a four way race in the next gubernatorial primary. Given how awful he is doing and his legal jeopardy is only likely to worsen, that’s delusional. That said, it seems to be what he thinks. Beyond that he hates Mike Madigan enough to never do anything to even remotely improve his family’s standing.
Jesse White has done the Shermanesqe statement saying he won’t take the office even if it’s offered and by most accounts he loves being Secretary of State. Pat Quinn isn’t really an option to Blagojevich and if you are Pat Quinn, you probably figure your chance to be Governor for at least a little while is pretty high given the current circumstances. Even if for only a year or so.
Next up, is my pet theory–Blair Hull. Hull was a big donor to Blagojevich and while Blagojevich might not have endorsed, his clear preference was for Hull. I have no reason or no source to support the idea, but Blagojevich loves loyalty and so I think it’s a possibility.
The loyalty theory also gives a slight chance to State Rep. Jay Hoffman who has been loyal to a fault with the Governor. That said, my guess is Hoffman wants Secretary of State if any statewide office and knows his more socially conservative views woudl be touch in a primary in two years. My other guess is Hoffman cares about Illinois issues more than anything and being a US Senator would get him away from that.
Emil Jones? As entertaining as it would be to have Emil Jones be a US Senator, I don’t see it. He could be a fair caretaker, but he has never suggested any interest in being a US Senator and frankly I take his interest in retiring to be serious. But think of the YouTube clips….
Jesse Jackson Jr. has again indicated his interest. As someone else said, “And I’d like to fuck Angie Dickinson too.” The Governor doesn’t like Jackson and frankly Jackson has pissed off quite a few people this cycle between his attacks on Halvorson and his meddling in Will Burns’ race (probably pissing off Emil on top of everything in both cases).
Blagojevich could appoint himself, but he’s a fighter even if delusional and he wants to prove himself by winning another term as Governor. State laws are also a lot looser in terms using your account for legal fees and that may become a big help if the feds don’t freeze campaign account.
One person who I long dismissed simply because I didn’t see the upside to Blagojevich is Jan Schakowsky. However, she has been fundraising for him and represents a liberal base in the primary that Blagojevich would covet. The liberal base tends to distrust machine politicians and so such group of progressives would be a natural alliance against LMadigan and Hynes. She’d be insane to endorse him, but if you can’t take his appointment and screw him, you aren’t fit to be a US Senator.
Many discount her as not a good general election candidate, but I’m not certain. She’s certainly not Dick Durbin and her margins would be smaller, but she has good labor union ties and Illinois is a safe blue state. All that said, I don’t think Blagojevich cares much about that so I’m not sure it’s a relevant consideration to him. Where she would be vulnerable is if Madigan decides he wants to take her out and creates an alliance with Republicans. Tales of hating Schakowsky are legion amongst Madigan staffers. Schakowsky wears that as a badge of honor. Pissing off MMadigan might well be a bonus for Blagojevich.
The sort of consensus choice is Tammy Duckworth. Part of Blagojevich’s problem is that he wants to attract a coalition for reelection and so he needs some African-American and Latino support. The problem is that the African-American bench is thin in the short run (fantastic in the long run). Jones and White are out. Jackson isn’t really an option. Who is next? Ricky Hendon? I kill myself. The only choice that would make sense in terms of someone who could hold the seat is Kwame Raoul, but he doesn’t benefit Blagojevich because of the divisions over Will Burns betwene Kwame and Jackson. Kwame, for those not familiar with him, ran against Emil and Obama endorsed candidate Will Burns to replace Obama in the State Senate and won. He then backed Burns for a House seat while Jackson ran someone else. Burns ended up winning, but it was heated between Jackson allies and Burns allies–Obama ended up sitting out at Jackson’s pressuring of him.
There’s a similar problem in the Latino community with no natural candidate because of divisions within the community. Someone like Manny Flores would be a great choice, but no single choice in the Latino community is a consensus pick with the possible exception of Gutierrez who is a horrible fundraiser and thus would make a horrible candidate. Plus, he has ties to Rezko. Sort of kills his chances off.
So how does the relate back to Tammy Duckworth? She isn’t black, white, or Latino and she is a woman. On top of that she is woman veteran who is about the only person getting good reviews for this administration. She’s smart and tough and has gotten much better since the 2006 race, but most importantly, she’s the only person that makes Blagojevich look better.
The downside for Duckworth is she becomes Blagojevich’s pick and has to defend that in 2010. If he’s on the ballot, that’s nearly impossible, but he’s likely toast in the primary or in the Patrick Fitzgerald sweepstakes by then. If he’s gone by then, as he almost certainly will be, Duckworth is enough of person unto herself, she can probably pull it off with Durbin backing her and the President of the United States coming in to help if necessary. The ultimate problem is the first question upon being appointed would be do you endorse Rod Blagojevich for reelection.
As I said above, anyone who thinks they know what Rod Blagojevich will do is lying or as delusional as he is so the above may be the most pointless thing ever written. The only sure thing is that Mr. 10% makes John McCain look like a planning genius.
ArchPundit