Given I’m getting asked in comments and Brownsox ran a big piece on it, I’ll cover it again. As Rich said the other day, anyone who says they know what Blagojevich will do is kidding themselves.
The big three are almost certainly out in Giannoulias, Hynes, and LMadigan. One theory holds that Blagojevich will appoint one to reduce the potential primary opponents. However, for Blagojevich there is safety in numbers so appointing any one of them hurts him. He thinks he does best in a four way race in the next gubernatorial primary. Given how awful he is doing and his legal jeopardy is only likely to worsen, that’s delusional. That said, it seems to be what he thinks. Beyond that he hates Mike Madigan enough to never do anything to even remotely improve his family’s standing.
Jesse White has done the Shermanesqe statement saying he won’t take the office even if it’s offered and by most accounts he loves being Secretary of State. Pat Quinn isn’t really an option to Blagojevich and if you are Pat Quinn, you probably figure your chance to be Governor for at least a little while is pretty high given the current circumstances. Even if for only a year or so.
Next up, is my pet theory–Blair Hull. Hull was a big donor to Blagojevich and while Blagojevich might not have endorsed, his clear preference was for Hull. I have no reason or no source to support the idea, but Blagojevich loves loyalty and so I think it’s a possibility.
The loyalty theory also gives a slight chance to State Rep. Jay Hoffman who has been loyal to a fault with the Governor. That said, my guess is Hoffman wants Secretary of State if any statewide office and knows his more socially conservative views woudl be touch in a primary in two years. My other guess is Hoffman cares about Illinois issues more than anything and being a US Senator would get him away from that.
Emil Jones? As entertaining as it would be to have Emil Jones be a US Senator, I don’t see it. He could be a fair caretaker, but he has never suggested any interest in being a US Senator and frankly I take his interest in retiring to be serious. But think of the YouTube clips….
Jesse Jackson Jr. has again indicated his interest. As someone else said, “And I’d like to fuck Angie Dickinson too.” The Governor doesn’t like Jackson and frankly Jackson has pissed off quite a few people this cycle between his attacks on Halvorson and his meddling in Will Burns’ race (probably pissing off Emil on top of everything in both cases).
Blagojevich could appoint himself, but he’s a fighter even if delusional and he wants to prove himself by winning another term as Governor. State laws are also a lot looser in terms using your account for legal fees and that may become a big help if the feds don’t freeze campaign account.
One person who I long dismissed simply because I didn’t see the upside to Blagojevich is Jan Schakowsky. However, she has been fundraising for him and represents a liberal base in the primary that Blagojevich would covet. The liberal base tends to distrust machine politicians and so such group of progressives would be a natural alliance against LMadigan and Hynes. She’d be insane to endorse him, but if you can’t take his appointment and screw him, you aren’t fit to be a US Senator.
Many discount her as not a good general election candidate, but I’m not certain. She’s certainly not Dick Durbin and her margins would be smaller, but she has good labor union ties and Illinois is a safe blue state. All that said, I don’t think Blagojevich cares much about that so I’m not sure it’s a relevant consideration to him. Where she would be vulnerable is if Madigan decides he wants to take her out and creates an alliance with Republicans. Tales of hating Schakowsky are legion amongst Madigan staffers. Schakowsky wears that as a badge of honor. Pissing off MMadigan might well be a bonus for Blagojevich.
The sort of consensus choice is Tammy Duckworth. Part of Blagojevich’s problem is that he wants to attract a coalition for reelection and so he needs some African-American and Latino support. The problem is that the African-American bench is thin in the short run (fantastic in the long run). Jones and White are out. Jackson isn’t really an option. Who is next? Ricky Hendon? I kill myself. The only choice that would make sense in terms of someone who could hold the seat is Kwame Raoul, but he doesn’t benefit Blagojevich because of the divisions over Will Burns betwene Kwame and Jackson. Kwame, for those not familiar with him, ran against Emil and Obama endorsed candidate Will Burns to replace Obama in the State Senate and won. He then backed Burns for a House seat while Jackson ran someone else. Burns ended up winning, but it was heated between Jackson allies and Burns allies–Obama ended up sitting out at Jackson’s pressuring of him.
There’s a similar problem in the Latino community with no natural candidate because of divisions within the community. Someone like Manny Flores would be a great choice, but no single choice in the Latino community is a consensus pick with the possible exception of Gutierrez who is a horrible fundraiser and thus would make a horrible candidate. Plus, he has ties to Rezko. Sort of kills his chances off.
So how does the relate back to Tammy Duckworth? She isn’t black, white, or Latino and she is a woman. On top of that she is woman veteran who is about the only person getting good reviews for this administration. She’s smart and tough and has gotten much better since the 2006 race, but most importantly, she’s the only person that makes Blagojevich look better.
The downside for Duckworth is she becomes Blagojevich’s pick and has to defend that in 2010. If he’s on the ballot, that’s nearly impossible, but he’s likely toast in the primary or in the Patrick Fitzgerald sweepstakes by then. If he’s gone by then, as he almost certainly will be, Duckworth is enough of person unto herself, she can probably pull it off with Durbin backing her and the President of the United States coming in to help if necessary. The ultimate problem is the first question upon being appointed would be do you endorse Rod Blagojevich for reelection.
As I said above, anyone who thinks they know what Rod Blagojevich will do is lying or as delusional as he is so the above may be the most pointless thing ever written. The only sure thing is that Mr. 10% makes John McCain look like a planning genius.
Thanks Arch.
I think Duckworth is a long shot in a normal year… but this year certainly isn’t normal.
I would suggest Bill from CapFax.
This isn’t a normal situation either. Its not as if Obama is leaving to take a cabinet post or an ambassadorship somewhere. He’s going to be President and as such, I think he’ll have some influence over who Blago appoints.
With that in mind, Duckworth seems the safest bet.
Rod’s not totally nuts in thinking his best chance is to survive a primary is a 4 way fight. His only hope would be to have a lower bar to clear to survive- that means more challengers. Where he’s delusional is in thinking that people will do anything other than flip him off when his TV ads roll out.
Assuming that he is in hardcore survival mode- he’ll only care about how the appointee brings him voters. That is what makes it impossible to predict.
Your point about divisions in African-American and Latino voting blocks- does being a Senator lead to a setting aside of those splits? If it does- then I can see him making making a play to become the non-white candidate in an all white race for Governor.
For Duckworth- her edge is that everyone seems to like her except for a handful of 6th CD activists frustrated over the Cegelis thing.
Here’s what I don’t understand?
While the choice is nominally Hot Rod’s to make, how does anyone think that Barack Obama will not de facto select who replaces him?
I said Duckworth a looooong time ago. I fear that choice has been “out there” too long for Mr. Unpredictable.
I like Raoul. Seems a long shot.
And I almost spit a mouthful of coffee all over my computer when I read the “Angie Dickinson” line. Fucking classic. And spot on. Some hump on politico commented something to the effect of, “I am from Illinois and I think I know a lot about Illinois politics, and it will likely be Jesse Jr.”
Yeah. You’re a genius.
Am I correct in recalling the line was originally an Uncle Junior line?
Nicholas- I’d turn the question back on you: how can anyone who’s seen Rod operate in this state think he’ll care what Obama wants and do anything that doesn’t benefit his survival?
If appointing Obama’s pick will bring votes and give G-Rod a chance at wrapping himself in Obama love (in Rod’s fantasies anyway) then he’ll do it. Seems to me Rod will do what he thinks will benefit him most.
A friend speculated that Duckworth is going to be Obama’s Sec of Vets Affairs and Kwame Raoul will be appointed to the U.S. Senate.
If Obama doesn’t take Duckworth, I think she’s a solid choice.
Under the Illinois Constitution, it’s Blagojevich’s call who gets appointed to the U.S. Senate, but it seems like Obama will have some influence.
Obama isn’t going to campaign for Blagojevich, but Blagojevich would be wise not to give Obama a reason to campaign against him.
How many donors does Obama have? Email addresses? How many are in Illinois?
I think Obama is going to care who Blagojevich replaces. And while Blagojevich has decision-making processes that are hard to fathom, I think he’ll attach some weight to Obama’s preference. Would it be good PR for Blagojevich to appear with Michelle Obama when he announces the appointment? Would it help Blagojevich to have Obama praise the appointment?
Nobody on the list of candidates delivers as much to Blagojevich as Obama can deliver. So, the question isn’t who will Blagojevich pick on his own, but who will Blagojevich pick in consultation with Barack Obama (and David Axelrod)?
Cook County Board President Todd Stroger.
Bleeding Heartland user American007 took a stab at the same question in May (not that she has any inside info, but you may be interested):
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1449
Carl- the good PR of following Obama’s preference only exists in Rod’s fantasyland- a place only slightly less twisted than the Neverland Ranch.. Wrapping himself in a warm Obama blanket for personal gain has no real benefit to Rod because it isn’t possible.
No one named Obama will appear with the man when the appiontment happens. And regardless of who the choice is Obama’s official statement will give general praise to that person and only mention Blagojevich, if at all, with a phrase along the lines of “Gov. Blagojevich appointed…”
Now, if following Obama’s pick has the real value of thawing the feelings of some voting bloc for Rod- that matters. That’s real. Draping himself in Obama-love is delusion.
Was anybody particularly impressed by the campaign Duckworth ran against Cegelis or Roskam? Not really sure what she’s done to deserve a shot on a bigger stage, but I haven’t followed what she’s done since going to Springfield.
Nick–Blagojevich is very erratic and as I think Rich pointed out, if he thinks giving Obama a say helps him, he does that. Otherwise not. What he thinks is what makes this a fun game, but that’s about all.
dbt–there are two things with Tammy. First, she has done a great job in Veterans Affairs. She is really popular there. Also, part of the problem was in 2006 she was still recovering and it seriously limited her campaigning. I think we’d see a far better campaigner this time.
My view is I like Tammy, but the reasons I think she has a shot have few things to do with what I think and what Blagojevich has to work with.