May 2008

We Are All Gonna Die!

ArchPundit May 12, 2008 0 Comment

And the parallels between Bush and Blagojevich continue:

“This is an emergency,” Blagojevich told reporters after the announcement. “Children are being shot and killed. And for lawmakers to say we can’t do it, that’s exactly the reason why there’s so much violence out there today and so we’re just not gonna take ‘no’ for an answer.”

No lawmakers had yet said that they couldn’t do what the governor wanted. Blagojevich briefed just a couple of them beforehand, so how would he even know how lawmakers felt? The governor hadn’t submitted legislation containing the proposal, so lawmakers hadn’t even seen it. Heck, they probably hadn’t even seen the press release at that point.

What he meant was that he would make the choice very clear to the General Assembly: “If you don’t vote for my capital plan, then you’re siding with the killers.”

As if the Statehouse atmosphere wasn’t poisoned enough with broken promises, stalled legislation, rising deficits, corruption allegations (most of them against the governor himself) and general dysfunction, now we’re going to be subjected to crud like this?

Fear-mongering doesn’t work forever. Bush’s use of the tactic isn’t producing the results it once did, partly because we’ve become almost dulled to the overuse of fear and partly because he’s been so discredited in the public’s eyes.

Blagojevich is even more discredited than Bush, if the polls are correct, so it’s doubtful that this gambit will work to persuade a skeptical General Assembly and an angry public to climb aboard. Just the opposite.

And that’s too bad because his plan is pretty good.

Many of Blagojevich’s plans are decent or at least a good place to start negotiating. The problem is that he doesn’t negotiate in good faith and he thinks any criticism is an attack on him and not a policy disagreement.  And those who disagree must be demonized.

The most bizarre thing from this proposal is that he insists it must be passed immediately, but then ties it to the Titanic of bills currently.  Blagojevich, like Bush, is quickly becoming background noise. If he loses Jones, he’ll simply be a bystandard.

The Question is Seldom Asked; Is Our Children Learning

ArchPundit May 9, 2008 0 Comment

Despite the desperate claims of Big Tent Democrat, the polling shows virtually no difference between Obama and Clinton against McCain in regard to white voters who are lower income, there isn’t any evidence that there is a problem for Obama any more than there is for Clinton.

From the Diago/Hotline poll:

White Voters

McCain 51%

Clinton  40 %

McCain 51%
Obama 38 %

Under $30,000 year voters

McCain: 37 %

Obama 50 %

McCain 37 %

Clinton 55 %

Women
McCain  37 %

Obama  51 %

McCain 37 %

Cllinton 52 %

So the only real difference is Obama does slightly worse with those under $30,000 in a general election match-up, but then actually does slightly better than Clinton in the 30-50 K bracket.

The reality based community understands several things that BTD doesn’t:

1.    Demographic blocs in primaries don’t translate into demographic blocs in general elections
2. The people who actually vote in Democratic primaries overwhelmingly vote Democratic in the general election
3. Obama does just as well in most categories in a general election match ups and better in other categories to the point that as of right now, there is very little difference in general election match-ups. Overall, the differences amongst these groups in a general election match up is very small so the notion that this is a great weakness for Obama is a simply a fiction.
4. Just as Clinton would have to shore up some voters, Obama needs to shore up some voters, but the polling to date indicates only small differences based on gender, income, and race.

Trying to portray preferences in the primary as evidence for a weakness in the general when general election polls show little difference indicates there is someone with a problem with reality, it’s just not who BTD thinks it is.

I Must Be in the Front Row

ArchPundit May 5, 2008 0 Comment

So I am on the Steve Earle e-mail list and got a notice that pre-sale was going on for Saint Louis a while ago.  Didn’t think much of it other than I wanted to go so I bought two tickets.  They ended up being front row center. It was a fantastic show.  Here’s a clip from earlier in the tour:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/5PJC_9apec0" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

Busy on Tuesday, but we’ll see.