October 2007

Daily Dolt: Glenn Beck, The Village Idiot

Pulling out the old canard that environmentalists oppose forest thinning, Beck blames the fires in Southern California on them.

This is wrong, as the links you can follow over at Think Progress pretty well demonstrate.  What environmentalists have sued over are plans to cut down larger diameter trees that don’t contribute to the fire danger.  Brush is the biggest danger to fires and it accumulates and in a natural process, fire clears it out occasionally.

The sins of forest mismanagement go way back, but the Bush administration couldn’t help, but try and make it actually worse with the Healthy Forest Initiative. An impressive feat, but there is truly no policy area this administration couldn’t try and screw up.

Environmentalists have sued over some projects, but not because they are designed to thin the forest, but because instead of concentrating on small trees and brush, the plans were essentially designed to allow for logging of larger trees which don’t generally create much of a danger in a fire unless the brush is present.  When attempts have been made to restrict the diameter of trees to be cut, the Bush administration has balked and then stalemate set in.

Of course, controlled burns that are another method of controlling the underbrush are often opposed by locals or big timber.  Go figure.

While we cannot say any single event is due to global warming, more of these kinds of fires will occur as global warming continues.  If forest policy isn’t created that reduces underbrush through actual thinning and not just an excuse for logging and the automatic effort to put out every fire isn’t adapted to allow fires when they are likely to be controlled, this will only be the first of many episodes exactly like this throughout the west.

Okay, Rahm Has Lost Me

I’ve been one of the few bloggers to defend Emanuel over time.  Sure there were things to be critical of, but I never found him to be nearly as bad as the general consensus on blogs has had it and, in fact, his being an asshole routine works often times.

However, he’s lost me:

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and champion of Democratic prospects for maintaining their House majority in 2008, said, “for the American people, and therefore all of us, [immigration has] emerged as the third rail of American politics,” Emanuel said. “And anyone who doesn’t realize that isn’t with the American people.”

“Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2008 presidential campaign? Open-ended

.

%

War in Iraq

26

Health care

25

Economy/Jobs

11

Immigration

6

Education

3

Environment

2

Social Security

2

Defense/Military

2

Terrorism (general)

2

Abortion

1

Other

12

Unsure

8

CBS News Poll. Sept. 14-16, 2007. N=706 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

“What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” Open-ended

.

%

War in Iraq

28

Economy/Jobs

16

Health care

8

Terrorism (general)

6

Immigration

5

Foreign policy

4

Poverty/Homelessness

3

Defense/Military

3

Misc. social issues

3

Misc. government issues

3

Other

16

Unsure

5

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 4-7, 2007. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

“Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president?” Open-ended

.

%

War in Iraq

35

Health care

13

Economy/Jobs

11

Terrorism/National security

6

Ethics/Corruption in government

6

Immigration/Illegal immigration

5

Morals/Family values

2

Other

13

Unsure

9

When it comes to [see below], which party do you think would do a better job — the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? If you think that neither would do a good job, please just say so.”

.

Democratic
Party
Republican
Party
Both About
The Same
Neither Unsure
% % % % %
ealing with immigration

   7/27-30/07

29 19 19 26 7

So, he has everything exactly wrong. Democrats do better on immigration largely because it’s a two sided issue with all of the those Latinos more and more voting for Democrats because the Republicans are horrible on the issue. Let them run the ads against Democrats–it will cost them as many votes as they get.

Immigration isn’t a salient issue other than in some very specific communities.  One of those communities nationwide happens to be Latinos who voted more Democratic this last cycle because the Democrats were right on the issue with them and helped bring about a great election.

Rahm is now just pissing on key allies.

Illegal immigration is a Republican base issue that excites their base. It happens to excite our base as well.  It isn’t what swing voters are fought over.  You middle group of voters don’t think it’s an important issue. In terms of only illegal immigration, only a small group of conservatives are up in arms about it as the polling shows.

It’s a perfect opportunity to exploit the rightward pull of the Republican base by taking positions like Durbin and Obama do that work to find comprehensive reform that celebrates our diversity.

===And anyone who doesn’t realize that isn’t with the American people.”

The polls say differently as did the 2006 election. Don’t try and sell this to our candidates.

Madigan has Already Won

Blagojevich just doesn’t get it.

Via Rich 

 16 percent approval

Given the margin of error his Excellent rating could be from 0.5% to 9.5%.  Woohoooooooooo…..

Looking up at Nixonian numbers.  How’s it feel Guv?

All Madigan has to do is sit, avoid headlines, and he, or his daughter, will be around far longer than the guy there now.  The thing Jones needs to seriously think about is whether he wants anyone in his caucus tied to this guy.  While I think that relationship is far more tenuous than those that claim it’s the defining issue in Illinois, Jones gets nothing out of this relationship besides headaches.
George Bush, probably the President who has sustained low poll numbers longer than anyone else is twice as popular as a Democratic Governor in a blue state.  And we haven’t even had any good indictments lately.

Let Obama Be Obama

The Obama campaign is humming along, but not nearly the kind of operation one should expect from him and an incredibly talented group of advisors.  Mike Lux offers a good take on it from someone outside of the Illinois

The great mystery of the Obama campaign so far is when they have such a unique and compelling candidate with such a fresh voice, why are they running such a conventional wisdom campaign? From their issue positions to their debate strategy to their day to day tactical positioning, they have run a campaign that keeps neatly within the lines of the campaign lane they’ve picked out to drive in. Every time he does a policy speech it fits within the outlines of Democracy policy establishment conventional wisdom. Every ad they do feels just like all of the usual political ads you see on TV. The strangest thing to me is that the kind of campaign they are running feels exactly like the others I’ve seen before.It’s the politics that is broken, upper middle income-oriented, tired of partisan bickering campaign that Gary Hart, Bruce Babbitt, Paul Tsongas and Bill Bradley all chose to run.

And that spells out my biggest disappointment. I backed or voted for all those guys and thought Obama had the talent to not run that kind of boring campaign.

Josh Marshall interviews Markos on Obama’s campaign and similar sentiments are expressed

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/_DgjezbTWFI" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

The campaign’s outreach online has been both incredible on the organizing level, and absolutely horrible in setting the agenda.  IN terms of allowing supporters to go out and build up their own organizing efforts–doing what Dean thought he was doing and Karl Rove actually did do–the campaign has done things I don’t think much of the blogs understand fully.  The discussion is below the radar of most of them because it isn’t the large bloggers pushing the conversation which I think is an innovation that is remarkable.

However, when blogs set the agenda and there isn’t the discussion being had there, it’s a problem. Josh Orton mentioned in the video left the campaign and largely blogger outreach is non-existent since then. Josh was very helpful and understood how to reach out to blogs and keep them up on what was going on.  The story appears to be that Josh wanted to push online outreach more in that way while Rospars wants to concentrate on the organizing. The problem to me seems to be they aren’t mutually exclusive and keeping someone in the position Josh was filling was essential to a second part of what should be a balanced net operation that both innovated over the blogcentric strategy, but paid attention to the agenda setting on blogs

And tied to this is just the recent hire of a rapid response person which is exactly what such a blog outreach person effectively does.  It’s the same kind of problem.

Some of the criticisms of Obama are a bit sillier than others.  For example, the overstated expectations about him in debate weren’t born out by the 2004 race. He’s capable, but the short form answers don’t lend themselves to his strengths. In other cases, some claim he can simply change the debate by opening his mouth–that’s generally not as true as most think–remember he was talking about lead in toys long before the current problems and crickets were heard.
The argument over McClurkin and the Gospel Tour is a distraction–probably from the Clinton camp. Any Democratic candidate who has significant black minister support has people who say the same things. Many white preachers are the same.  In fact, some of Clinton’s supporters believe similar things.  Building bridges between communities takes dealing with differing view points, and certainly Obama doesn’t agree with McClurkin on the issue and attends a church that is welcoming to gays and lesbians himself.
The worst thing is the campaign has effectively neutered Obama with caution and
boriinnnggggg.  There are several issues he should lead on–and ones that would take back the momentum with progressive base voters.  He’s done well on voter suppression.  He hasn’t done well on FISA where it took days to get a statement together that should have been easy to make for a Con Law Instructor. He’s still not entirely clear on telecom amnesty which should be a non-starter for any Democrat.  He has taken agonizing time figuring out how he’d vote on various war related bills.

In 2004, that wasn’t Obama.  He wasn’t some wild eyed progressive quote machine, but he took strong stands and did it forthrightly and quickly.  Now, every pronouncement is awaiting a detailed policy response vetted to be bland and uninteresting.

Part of it appears to be an effort to discipline the message and another part is simply the painstaking inability to move quickly of a larger campaign operation.  But message discipline shouldn’t hold hostage the basic campaign strategy which is to be the different kind of politics–that is one that should be off the cuff and honest–not the cautious, overly word smythed crap that is like the Clinton campaign.

When he has done best contrasting himself on issues, it has been on issues such as being willing to talk to anyone while Hillary tried to paint him as naive. It so happens that 60% of the Democratic Party agree with Barack yet the campaign seems to think that was a problem.  It wasn’t a problem, it was an opportunity, and the type they haven’t taken enough advantage.

Bogging the campaign down in the traditional model of caution loses the appeal of Barack Obama.  People like him because he talks to them plainly and understandably.  His best commercial ever was still the introductory commercial in 2004 where he is standing leaning against a desk and says, “Hello, my name is Barack Obama…”

The effectiveness was he was a guy who was obviously smart and easy to understand.  Pushing the language of Washington in carefully worded statements is exactly the playing field he should not be on.

Vapidness

Apparently watching a debate will tell you all about intelligent design and make it scientific.
Unfortunately, there is no falsifiable hypothesis. The arguments boils down to information must be intelligently designed without any way to refute the claim.  Hence, it’s not a scientific argument–it’s a claim of faith.

The first clue might be to search the actual scientific literature, but, you know, videos are the same thing.

Pera on Hurckes and Ganschow

Democratic Congressional candidate Mark Pera on Tuesday called upon Congressman Dan Lipinski to direct his staff to return to donors or contribute to charity the payments they received from a state political campaign fund controlled by Lipinski’s father — former Congressman and federal lobbyist William Lipinski.

According to the Daily Southtown (10/21 & 10/14) and the Chicago Sun-Times (10/07), Congressman Dan Lipinski’s chief of staff and director of communications collected $13,500 in consulting fees from the “All-American Eagles” fund — a state political campaign fund — during 2006 and 2007.

Making matters worse is the fact that William Lipinski misrepresented the fund as one that benefits charitable causes in a solicitation letter that was sent out in August (see attached).

Pera said the newspaper reports raise some troubling questions.

“Why are members of Congressman Dan Lipinski’s staff receiving income from his father — a lobbyist at both the state and federal levels? If Congressman Lipinski wasn’t aware of this relationship, he should have been. If he was, then why didn’t he move to end it?” Pera said.

“If this isn’t a violation of House ethics rules, it should be.”

In the interest of full disclosure, Congressman Dan Lipinski, the two staffers in question — Chief of Staff Jerry Hurckes and Director of Communications Christopher Ganschow — and William Lipinski should report exactly what kind of work they do for William Lipinski to merit these payments, Pera said.

It’s not uncommon for someone to be on the federal payroll and the campaign payroll–there are lots of examples around including Robert Gibbs who worked for both the Obama campaign and the Obama Senate office. While I’m not a huge fan of doing it, there is no real conflict of interest in such arrangements and the individual has to be careful to follow the law. Fair enough.

However, doing political work for a lobbyist’s PAC at the same time working for a Congressman is a very, very different thing. On top of that, there are all sorts of reimbursements to Hurckes for various things through the 23rd Ward Committee and All-American Eagles including my favorite priceless reimbursement from 1999:

Reimburse Clowns Fee Xmas Party