October 2007

When You Don’t Let Media Buyers Make the Buying Decisions

One of the pet peeves of many who watch Democratic campaigns is the weird obsession with broadcast TV buys over cable TV buys.  The Nicki Tsongas race involved huge broadcast buys that were a waste of money given they were targeting people in the area who could not vote in MA-5.  Republican candidates often use cable buys to more effectively target buys geographically and even more so, reach likely voters by picking shows with the right demographics.

The theory is that because of the way many Democratic Ad makers take a percentage of ad buys, it encourages choices to go on broadcast.

Pera’s campaign has gone cable:

From now until late-December the ad will be regularly appearing on a cable channels

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/pzC9TOpg1lc" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

Also, CQ chimed in on the race:

Challenger: Democrat Mark Pera, Illinois’ 3rd District ($240,000 raised, $181,000 cash-on-hand)
Incumbent: Rep. Dan Lipinski ($305,000 raised, $321,000 cash-on-hand)
Primary: February 5

Pera, a lawyer, is running to Lipinski’s left and criticizing the incumbent’s votes against abortion and embryonic stem cell research, while the incumbent will emphasize a record that includes service on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Other Democratic candidates in the Feb. 5 primary election include Palos Hills mayor Jerry Bennett, who reported receipts of $56,000 and cash-on-hand of $50,000, and lawyer Jim Capparelli, who took in $12,900 and has $4,400 left to spend.

If you want high comedy, check out Capparelli’s report that is almost as bad as Mike Kelly’s last cycle.  Not one donor has an occupation or employer listed.

Daily Dolt: Treason in Defense of Slavery Yankee, Potentially the Stupidest Boycott Ever

Treason in the Defense of Slavery Yankee is calling for a boycott of The New Republican because it is published Scott Beauchamp:

We know The New Republic attempted to stonewall their way through obvious, blatant, and grievous breaches of journalistic ethics. In so doing, they have attacked the service, integrity, and honor of an entire company of American soldiers serving in a combat zone to avoid taking responsibility for their own editorial and ethical failures.

I’ve never quite understood the big deal over the Beauchamp story–at worst it told the story of some people stuck in the middle of a civil war being cruel to a dog in the street.  Other than by Michael Vick rules of dogs are the most holy thing ever, is that shocking.  Anyway, Treason in the Defense of Slavery Yankee is claiming it is stabbing troops in the back and even left a classic over at Yglesias’ place.

The knives are being swung at the back of our soldiers comes from the hand of Franklin Foer.

It is unclear to just about everyone, but Treason in Defense of Slavery Yankee why a pro-war magazine that continues to cheerlead the Iraqi War and a publisher who is all a twitter at the thought of attacking Iran would want to undercut the troops, but a guy who calls himself Treason in Defense of Slavery Yankee is short a few marbles for pretty obvious reasons.

Anyway, he wants to boycott the TNR’s advertisers.  Yeah, for those who have actually read TNR, that’s pretty funny. Here’s a sample of the advertisers:

Alfred A. Knopf Allstate Amazon.com American Gas Station
American Petroleum Institute AstroZeneca Auto Alliance
Blue Cross Blue Shield Association (current issue) BP (current issue) Chevron (current issue) CNN
FLAME (current issue) Federal Express The Financial Times Focus Features
Ford Motor Company Freddie Mac GM Grove Atlantic
HBO Harvard University Press History Channel Hoover Institution (current issue)
MetLife Microsoft Mortage Bankers Nuclear Energy Institute
The New School New York Times Novartis Palgrave Macmillan (current issue)
Simon & Shuster John Templeton Foundation (current issue) University of Chicago Press University Press of Kansas (current issue)
U.S. Telecom Visa (current issue) The Wall Street Journal Warner Brothers
Warner Brothers Home Video W.W. Norton Wyeth Laboratories Yale University Press (current issue)

TiDoSY wants to boycott pharmaceutical companies, think tanks, academic presses, and interest groups.  Even in the cases of Ford and GM or Chevron and BP their advertising in TNR is oriented towards issues or corporate reputation more than actually selling products.  Oh, and insurance companies….like Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

There are virtually no products to boycott unless one is an academic.  Most of the advertisers aren’t there to sell things so much as to reach a very particular audience about issues.

But the comments are the best:

tilting at windmills…

the advertisers are there because they’re interested in giving money to a liberal magazine and because they’re interested in the readers.

So….American Gas Station, Chevron, BP, the American Petroleum Institute, the Farging Hoover Institution,  FLAME, the Bleeping Nuclear Energy Institute, US Telecom, and Big Pharma are all interested in giving money to a liberal magazine.  Of course.

Never mind that the New Republic is not the New Republic of old, but pretty much a neo-con publication on foreign policy and DLC on domestic policy.  But whatever, these conservative stalwarts are backing the TNR because it is a ‘liberal’ magazine?

TNR, probably far less than it used to be, is a place to reach very specific policy audience with ideas, not sell televisions or cars and that is why this is probably the dumbest consumer boycott ever.

Daily Dolt: Dennis “GET OFF MY LAWN” Byrne

Seriously, someone at the Trib smack Dold over the head for allowing this crap in his paper.

The problem with dismissing the Carroll study because it is epidemiological is that you’ll also have to dismiss a multitude of public health studies, including ones claiming a link between radon and lung cancer. These are the same epidemiological studies that alarmed millions of Americans, frightening them into buying radon detectors and creating a huge radon mitigation business. No study is perfect, and Carroll’s shortcoming is that his data do not allow comparisons of individual women over time. But other major studies have, and according to one unchallenged compressive analysis of those studies, they show that a pregnant woman who has never had a child before and aborts in the first term increased her chance of breast cancer by 50 percent.

Let me offer up the model from the paper

Two explanatory variables are selected for modeling: (abortion)and (fertility).The trends for abortion and fertility are shown in Figures 8 and 9 for countries considered. The Mathematical Model is then:

Yi = a + b1x1i + b2x2i + ei

where Y represents cumulated cohort incidence of breast cancer within a particular age group; a is intercept, b1 and b2 are coefficients, and e is random error.

That creates a guffaw from those who know statistics at all.

He has a correlation Coefficient of .98.

Figure3.jpg

Those who understand correlation coefficients are shooting liquid through their nose if they were drinking anything right now. I had to look at it about 20 minutes to understand this moron was trying to sell a .98 correlation coefficient.
What he has done is take mass data that shows one factor increasing (abortion) and another decreasing (fertility) and then regresses it upon a variable that is increasing-incidence of breast cancer.

So if I were to regress the number of abortions and the fertility rate on the number of televisions sold per person, I’d get about the same result over this period of time. So I can, according to this dumbass, claim credibly that television leads to breat cancer. Or, as the Orac points out, the reduction in the number of pirates has led to global warming.
There’s a variety of problems in this study starting with he throws out independent variables well established by other studies. In the case of linear regression, the problem is that if you do not include other variables, you cannot control for those variables and so not are just theoretical variables excluded, but well established variables demonstrated over and over are excluded from the analysis. To say the least, this is an underspecified

A regression model is underspecified if the regression equation is missing one or more important predictor variables. This situation is perhaps the worst-case scenario, because an underspecified model yields biased regression coefficients and biased predictions of the response. That is, in using the model, we would consistently underestimate or overestimate the population slopes and the population means. To make already bad matters even worse, the mean square error MSE tends to overestimate ?2, thereby yielding wider confidence intervals than it should.

No one accepts a .98 coefficient. No one. That is essentially regressing one variable on itself and in this case, it’s the regressing less restrictive abortion laws with a number of factors that have led to an increase in breast cancer. Some cancer patients even need Home Care Assistance.

Ecological inference is not an acceptable means of imputing causation on individuals from macro level data and this study violates the principle. One might use it to explore potential causes and whether there is a gross correlation, but not to determine causality. For that one requires cohort information or some other way to address individual observations.

It’s junk science. Yet the Chicago Tribune keeps publishing a clown who insists there is a link, but is wholly unqualified to judge that and uses crappy studies to do it. Why?

Let’s Review Commenting

It’s fine to post support for someone, but you only get to do it as one identity.  I will delete comments made by the same IP with different identities.  If you change from time to time that isn’t so bad, but in the same day or same thread, not cool.
Second, the only other thing I take very seriously is if a campaign is being dishonest about posting.  If you want to post anonymously–go for it–keep one identity if you do.  But don’t pretend to be a random person when posting from blahblah2008.com.  Just make the point without setting yourself up as some sort of random person who just happen to have heard about Candidate blahblah.
Other than that–your IPs and identities are perfectly safe.

When the Good News is Still Really Bad

Yesterday’s Rasmussen release gave Rod a 16% approval and below Bush.  IWU’s poll has him above Bush by 2%, but at 23%.  Rasmussen is usually a little higher on approval for Republicans than other polls so the two aren’t that much in conflict–which is exactly the right number is hard to say, but none of these numbers are in the good range.

Generic Congressional questions are fraught with problems, but this is still interesting:

5. If the upcoming elections for the U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you like to see win in your district, the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
49%  Democratic candidate  27% Republican candidate  24% Undecided/NR

8. How convinced are you that global warming or the greenhouse effect is actually  happening – would you say you are completely convinced, mostly convinced, not so convinced or not at all convinced?
34%   completely convinced     32%  mostly convinced
16%   not so convinced             13%  not at all convinced
5%     undecided/other/NR

It’s fascinating that Romney isn’t doing well here, though Illinois voters are still tuning out the election.

19. Although the presidential primaries for 2008 are still a few months away, if the  choice among Republican candidates was between John McCain, Rudy Giuiliani,   Mitt  Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, who would you like to see win the  Republican nomination?
21% McCain    23%  Giuiliani  9%  Romney  9% Thompson
6% Huckabee   4% OTHER – specify_______________________________
29%  Undecided/No Response

Some of the lowest numbers in Illinois polls I’ve seen for Obama

20.  On the Democratic side, if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination?
26%  Clinton     36% Obama   16% Edwards
5% OTHER – please specify______________________________________
18% Undecided/No Response

The thing about Blagojevich is he doesn’t seem to be a drag on the party in general–largely because just about everyone hates him.  Obviously Morganthaler will have a tougher time distancing herself from him, but pretty much he doesn’t seem to be hurting anyone else or progressive issues in Illinois.
Conducted by Illinois Wesleyan University
Department of Political Science
October 15 – 18, 2007
Sample Size  N = 395  (Confidence Interval +/- 5%)

But Why Mark Pera?

A big part of the time talking about IL-3 is spent bashing Dan Lipinski. And for good reason, but there’s another aspect that I’ve neglected and that is why I support Mark Pera.

I was somewhat skeptical of Pera run after the Sullivan race last time. John was a great, great guy, but just wasn’t able to put a campaign together. So when I was trying to organize the regional caucus for Yearly Kos I ended up e-mailing a ton of people and one was Pera and his early campaign advisors. He sounded like a nice guy and that’s not always a good sign. Also, there were rumors of a more establishment candidate who would have good access to fundraising and I’m not above choosing electability.
However, I got the chance to sit down and talk with him for a bit at Yearly Kos and I was very impressed. Mark was sitting down outside the main hall doing some reading before Pat Botterman took him around to chat with some folks. The first thing I noticed was how easy going he was. I sat down to chat with him and he was one of the most approachable candidates I’ve met. We comfortably talked about our families and jobs before even getting into the politics.

This kind of easiness is important when campaigning and being able to listen well is often the best characteristic of a good candidate. Too many Democrats launch into rants about policy or such without establishing that personal connection.

When we turned to politics, he pulled off what I consider an essential element of a good candidate–he was passionate, but not the angry guy shaking his fist. He talked about the stakeholders he had met with and the general frustration they had with Lipinski including pro-choice advocates, embryonic stem cell research advocates, immigration rights activists, anti-war activists, and civil liberty advocates.

Finally, he told me he took a leave from work to campaign full time. Challengers cannot run effective campaigns part time. There is simply too much work to do in raising name recognition and fundraising to make that work.

Checking into Mark’s background was interesting as well. He was a private attorney until 1996 when he ran for the State House losing by a few points to a Republican. Instead of going back to private practice he went to work for the State’s Attorney’s office which is like a reverse career pattern for most lawyers. If a lawyer is going to work in an SA office, they do it early and then either make that their career or move on to make more money in private practice. He didn’t and likely took a decent pay cut compared to his previous work.

And he worked on interesting cases working on public utilities and the environment. He took part in the closing of the incredibly dirty Premcor refinery and pointed out the folly of the reverse auction con in Illinois for electric utilities. The choice to work for the State’s Attorney office on such issues is an incredible testament to his commitment to the public.

There’s another aspect of his background that impressed me as well. He came from the are and worked his way up. He worked in the steel mills in East Chicago and Gary before college and largely worked his way through school. It’s quite a contrast to a guy who was handed his seat in Congress by his Dad.

It’s easy to want to beat Lipinski, but that doesn’t always mean you getting a great candidate–in this case we are.

Mark is progressive, committed to the race, and has incredibly life experiences that would make him a fantastic candidate to represent IL-3.

There’s a lot of talk that Lipinski is a placeholder for a few years until a young potential party guy is ready for the seat–this is the time to elect a guy who can work within the system, but who is also independent. Let’s take that opportunity and convert it.

So What is the Line on Anti-Gay Activists in Democratic Campaigns?

Because if Donnie McClurkin, is the standard, a whole lot of Black Ministers aren’t going to be acceptable as supporters.

Let’s start with where the issue probably started:

Hillary Clinton

Rev. Harold Mayberry 

Or perhaps Darrell Jackson, who has admirably supported hate crimes legislation, but preaches that homosexuality is wrong.  Oh, and he got a big fat contract too 

The real point here is that Democrats have two constituencies that often disagree with one another.  One, African-Americans, compose a socially conservative demographic who are more anti-gay than the average member of the population.  The GLBT community is a strong supporter of Democrats as well, but they find that many African-American religious leaders who back Democrats have offensive ideas about gay people.  That’s true.

Joe Solomonese of Human Rights Campaign said this today:

“I spoke with Sen. Barack Obama today and expressed to him our community’s disappointment for his decision to continue to remain associated with Rev. McClurkin, an anti-gay preacher who states the need to ‘break the curse of homosexuality,’” Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solomonese said in a statement sent out moments ago.

Lots of black preachers say such things.  Does that mean none of them can be associated with a Democratic Campaign?

Obama is right on most GLBT issues other than marriage by the standards of the HRC–he was a Sponsor on the ENDA at the state level in Illinois.  And he, like every other Democratic politician who courts African-Americans has lots of socially conservative black preachers backing him.  Why then is he singled out for this one?

And is the solution to insist on excluding such people, or is it better for candidates to build a coalition that can then dialogue on such issues?

And why aren’t other candidates hit hard on the same issue?