Call It A Comeback
John Cox is very, very concerned about Transexual Teachers
Why? That’s a very good question.
The best highlight reel yet of the Values Voter Debate has been put together by the Drexel Democrats:
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Go visit them here–I’ll link through the graphic. The blog will be liveblogging tomorrow from the courtroom.
Planned Parenthood Volunteer Videos
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Democratic Primary Prediction: Lipinski, but you can change that
+3 D results in Illinois Delegation of 13-6 Democratic Advantage and significantly more progressive.
IL-3 Map
Already covered here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
Go help Mark with $30 by September 30th and contribute $30 or more to help him out.
IL-6 Map
2004
Bush 53 %
Kerry 47 %
2000
Bush 53 %
Gore 47 %
Cook Partisan Index +3 R
Republican: Uberwingnut Peter Roskam who is excellent at campaigning, constituent service and damn likeable.
Democrat: No serious candidate. Tammy Duckworth decided against the race and no serious candidate has announced.
Given Roskam is a prodigious fundraiser and has high positive name recognition, this is unlikely to be a targeted race. Republicans get a pass on one race.
IL-17 Map
2004
Kerry 51
Bush 48
2000
Gore
Bush
Cook Partisan Index +5 D
Democrat: Progressive Phil Hare won his last race with 57 % of the vote and appears to have no serious challenger. He’s been a great surprise as a strong voice for progressive causes. And he bought some ties.
IL-10 Map
2004
Kerry 53 %
Bush 47 %
2000
Gore 51 %
Bush 47 %
Cook Partisan Index +4 D
Republican: Incumbent Mark Kirk was first elected in 2000 and had no serious competition in 2004. He’s positioned himself as a moderate Republican who is pro-choice and environmentally friendly. On the first position, he’s relatively accurate, but his League of Conservation Voters scores are mediocre with some variance depending upon the year. He has voted to a significant degree with Republican leadership on several issues lately including against a bill to give teeth to gender discrimination in wages and has consistently voted with the administration on the war. He is a strong campaigner and very good at constituent service. He’s personally considered very likeable and pretty calm. In addition, he is a very strong supporter of Israel reflecting his district well on that issue.
Democrats: Dan Seals ran last time and held Kirk to 53%, his lowest total since his first win in 2000. Seals made it a race largely on his own with limited DCCC support even though he got a lot of national attention and really was liked in DCCC. The number of seats in play made his District one they didn’t have much money to support him. Seals has strong local support and has made his support of Israel a key point of his campaign.
Jay Footlik was recruited in 2006, but took a pass on the race that year. He entered the race this year and after some initial statements that confused his position on the war has come out strongly against the Iraq War and is running a smart campaign. His background as a Homeland Security consultant who has worked in Israel is an asset in the District as well. He has surprised everyone with very strong fundraising and caught Seals a bit flat-footed on that front and the October reports will be important benchmarks for both campaigns.
Seals has the loyalty of many folks who supported him last time and that probably gives him an edge assuming both have good quarters.
Kirk has tried to break from the President on the war with a bizarre plan he has put together with Dan Lipinski that would force the reduction of troops that has to be done anyway since the armed forces are overextended and attempted to call it a compromise. The compromise is essentially a complete capitulation to the Bush administration. Given that polling after the Petraeus testimony indicates the public was not buying the administration’s line, it’s hard to tell how the plan Kirk is endorsing helps him.
Given the unpopularity of the war and limited RNCC support that Kirk can expect and the Democratic nominee is likely to get significant DCCC support, this race leans Democratic. Kirk is a tough campaigner, but he has virtually everything going against him this cycle.
IL-16 Map
2004
Bush 55 %
Kerry 44 %
2000
Bush 54 %
Gore 43 %
Cook Partisan Index +4
Republican: Don Manzullo, incumbent since 1992 and was Chair of the House Committee on Small Business. He’s a strong constituent service Member and avoids controversy to the point of being unknown outside of his District.
Democrat: Robert Abood, a nuclear scientist, son of a wealth Chicago Banker, and President of the Barrington Hills Village Council. He’s an interesting candidate because he has enough money to spend it to get the campaign going and is well known in the suburban Chicago area of the District. He’s also running next to IL-14 with physicist Bill Foster creating an interesting issue of the crossover buzz with two scientists running.
Independent: General John Borling ran as a write-in candidate last cycle and is threatening to run as an independent this cycle. Borling potentially could be a spoiler delivering the race to Abood since Borling is generally considered a Republican though socially moderate. While he is unlikely to win, he can run a credible enough race to have a serious impact.
The District is a large district geographically going from the Northwestern Exurbs of Chicago to the Iowa state line with Rockford in the middle. Rockford proper produces a good number of Democratic votes and will have to deliver good margins for this to be a race. Borling’s potential entry is the most likely reason this race could become one to at least keep one eye on it. Abood also fits the profile of a guy who can make some headway in the suburbs.
IL-8 Map
2004
Bush 56 %
Kerry 44 %
2000
Bush 56 %
Gore 42 %
Cook Partisan Index +5 R
Republican: A couple random guys, and Steve Greenburg, a businessman who can partially self-finance–a big plus for the GOP this year with bad RNCC fundraising. He considered a race against Durbin, but reality set in and he took on a reasonably tough race, but one with a chance at least.
Democrat: Incumbent Melissa Bean. She won in 2004 against entrenched Republican fossil Phil Crane and won again in 2006 with 51.2 % of the vote compared to 43.7% for partial self funder David McSweeney and 5.1 % of the vote for independent candidate Bill Scheuer.
Bean works hard as an incumbent and has very good constituent service. She has a relatively moderate voting record and has broken with key Democratic constituencies on several issues making her unpopular with many activists. Her only real vulnerability comes from if she were to lose a lot of votes to Bill Scheuer again and Greenburg could make up some of the losses McSweeney faced. But frankly, McSweeney was a decent candidate who worked hard and had strong base support for his run. It’s hard to see how Greenburg does better than him.
My guess is both of these districts are holds for the respective parties, but if one is going to break, it’ll be 16 if Borling gets in.
Illinois has 19 Congressional seats this year and other than for Luis Gutierrez deciding not to retire, it would have 4 open seats, one strong primary Democratic primary challenge, one high money challenger in Republican leaning seat with a Democratic incumbent, and a strong challenge to a Republican in a Democratic leaning District, one Republican Freshman in a traditionally Republican, but trending towards swing District, and a wealthy nuclear scientist running against an entrenched, but largely unknown Republican incumbent.
The Open Seats:
IL-11 Map
2004
Bush 53%
Kerry 46%
2000
Bush 50%
Gore 48%
Cook Index +1 R
Likely Republicans? Not sure, though Weller friends have been suggested.
Likely Democrats? Two lightweights announced, but the big fish is Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson who is being pursued by Emily’s List and presumably DCCC. If Halvorson takes a pass, other Democrats might look at the race again given the year and that Weller is retiring.
The problem with the District is that it’s spread out, the TV market is split cross including the very expensive Chicago market, and the urban areas are fairly different from one another. It does have a strong union membership in areas including Will County and the west side of Bloomington in McLean County. Whomever runs, they have to run outside of their home turf making it all the more difficult.
Given what looks to be a very strong year for Democrats, this is probably a true tossup depending on who runs. Halvorson is the favorite if she runs and has the ability to raise money on her own. She’s also incredibly likeable as a candidate. Republicans are largely unknown in the area, though we could see some bigger names jump including people like Bill Brady from Bloomington. While I believe he’s in the 15th District, that’s hardly stopped anyone in Illinois in recent years.
IL-14 Map
2004
Bush 55%
Kerry 44%
2000
Bush 54%
Gore 42%
Cook Index +5
Fascinating fact. The two longest serving Republican Speakers of the House came from IL-14 with Hastert number one, and the infamous Joseph Cannon, number two.
Likely Republicans? Three are running: State Senator Chris Lauzen, Investor Jim Oberweis, and Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns. Most presume Lauzen or Oberweis will win the nomination with Oberweis having the backing of Dennis Hastert who apparently cannot stand Chris Lauzen. Lauzen has a better grass roots following and the backing of wealthy arch-conservative political activist, Jack Roeser. Lauzen has a particularly thin skin and even sued an opponent for defamation over whether Lauzen was a CPA or not. To never have to face the issue again, Lauzen attempted to change his legal name to Chris Lauzen, CPA. The judge denied the request. Oberweis has ridden anti-immigrant politics for most of his career and has lost three state-wide races in the primaries and lost his bid to be Kane County Republican Chair after the third loss. Burns is relatively moderate compared to these two wingnuts and has no chance in hell in the Republican Primary. If someone doesn’t get sued by the end of this primary, I’ll be shocked.
Likely Democrats? Three are running with last cycle’s nominee John Laesch getting a lot of national netroots support, but derision from the local netroots. Jonathan Stein is running as well and has some progressive supporters. Bill Foster, a Fermilab scientist is running and is willing to put $1 million of his own money into the primary. Foster probably has the leg up, but Laesch supporters claim to have a better grassroots operation. The October 15th FEC filings should tell the story for the primary.
This is a nightmare district again with the District spanning three television markets and most of the width of the state. It runs from the outskirts of the Quad City area into western DuPage County. The majority of the population is centered in the Chicago outer suburbs. Given the likely hijinks and silliness in the Republican Primary, the general should be close. Both Lauzen and Oberweis have either records or opinions that can be used against them.
IL-18 Map
2004
Bush 58 %
Kerry 42%
2000
Bush 53%
Gore 43%
Cook Partisan Index +5 R
Likely Republicans: Aaron Schock, current State Representative, businessman Jim McConoughey, and John Morris, a former Peoria City Council Member. Schock is the prohibitive favorite. He’s one of the few bright spots on the Republican bench in Illinois and he appears to be a complete wingnut. A wingnut who people happen to think is very moderate, but not so much. He’s very personable, has lots of establishment backing, and access to cash. It would be a shock if he doesn’t take the primary and he will be an incredibly tough general election candidate with less than a 3% disapproval of which most of that resides at Peoria Pundit.
Like Democrats: Former Bradley Men’s Basketball and Indiana Pacers Coach Dick Versace who may be the Dems can find. He has good name recognition, but also is known as a bit unserious and somewhat polarizing as a figure. But he could raise cash and he’s always entertaining. Former State Representative Bill Edley has also discussed the race, but doesn’t want to fight in a primary. He seems to understand it would be a hard race and take a lot of time on the trail.
The District is gerrymandered to exclude any pockets of labor outside of the Peoria area skirting Springfield and going down toe Jacksonville. With Schock, this is the least likely pick-up opportunity unless a Democrat can raise his negatives fast.
How will these three end up? Pick-ups in IL-11 & IL-14, Republican hold in IL-18. Primarily the political environment is so bad in the state of Illinois this year and given the candidates they are fielding, the Democrats have real shots at both seats and probably stronger candidates. Schock in Peoria will be strong and probably hold that seat safely.
Oh, screw it.
Weller is retiring
Perhaps as soon as tomorrow.
ArchPundit
