Call It A Comeback
Despite much of the RNCC’s mail on behalf of Roskam being truly atrocious, a candidate cannot just respond once to a theme of the other campaign when she has been hit five times on immigration.
Hit back people and hit back more than once. And ignore the bait on Rosie, that’s just base stroking for Roskam. And then microtarget some mail to the Latinos in the District who are growing as a population.
I have some serious reservations about the Big Box law especially at a city level, but Daley was far from genius on this maneuver.
Daley just handed Jackson a stronger hand with SEIU and even if Jackson doesn’t run, SEIU looks to be putting together a slate of strong challengers to pro-Daley alderman. I don’t know if they’ll win and frankly, I don’t think it matters in the short term. What matters is that SEIU is creating a functioning alternative to a failing machine that has no new life and is paralyzed with fear to use the old tools of favors and patronage.
Daley will probably take the trades in terms of support, but they have been severely weakened over the years and SEIU is the single best organizer in Illinois. They are going to form an independent political organization tied to their ideals and not to contracts or jobs and that is a powerful force in politics given that voters are less tied to neighborhoods and wards that they once were. Daley might not lose because of it, but he just gave them an organizing issue and a rallying cry that even if some of the rest of the unions oppose, they cannot argue with the issue. If it’s a victory for Daley, it’s pyrhic for the remnants of his Machine.
It’s not a good time to be a Republican in Illinois
I’ve had a running debate with several good friends and people who correspond with me about the impact of a deeply unpopular President and anger at a Republican Congress on elections in Illinois. The alternative argument is that Rod will reduce that edge and somewhat even out the playing field.
I’d like to declare that I’m right on this today. Rod could still fall, though I don’t think he will and Democrats will still have a very good year in Illinois.
But the most recent Tribune poll found that even in longtime Republican-leaning regions, the GOP no longer might have the upper hand. In the collar counties, 31 percent of voters aligned themselves with Republicans while 29 percent identified with Democrats.
That’s just a stunning number. It is a very good sign for Congressional races in 6, 8, 10, and 11.
Unless the Republicans can effectively localize these races, the national trend is going to be hard to buck. Blagojevich can have relatively low popularity, but this is an election for many that is nationalized over war and corruption at the federal level. The Iraq War is deeply unpopular and that trumps more localized issues.
It’s been a bit crazy around here as I was job hunting, but that is all settled now and I’ll be getting back to a regular schedule.
If the check scandal continues to gain some traction, expect to hear that Democratic loyalists float the idea that it’s okay to vote for Rod because if there is anything in the investigations you get Pat Quinn
I love hearing the screeching—He’s dishonest. He’s as bad as Ryan. He’s going to get indicted. The PEOPLE will rise up and throw him out because he’s so bad. He’s bankrupting the state…
Yeah, I’m talking about Rod. I’m not sure he’s as bad as Ryan, but I’m not much of a fan. The problem is that all of the above could be true, but barring indictment he’ll be Governor next term, though perhaps not for the full term. And by that I mean if he’s indicted in office because given it’s mid-September I’m pretty sure we won’t be seeing any indictments before the election.
Nationally, Markos points out how well Republicans have created narratives to win elections.
In Illinois, Rod is the master of the narrative. It’s perfect for him because he has no attention span so summing it up in two sentences works great.
Rod is fighting for working families health care and education.
Judy is just another corrupt right wing Republican like Bush and the Republican Congress who have screwed up this country.
Rod’s numbers suck, but not nearly as much as Judy’s do. Look at the most recent Trib poll.
Issue advantages:
Education—Rod
Health Care–Rod
Corruption–tie
Who wins in that equation?
Is Rod better on education? I like his general ideas on programs, but his funding scheme is lame and probably won’t pass anyway. Judy’s plan which I haven’t had time to discuss lately, is maybe slightly better on funding, but not by much. Neither deals with the long term financing.
Health Care? Even if All Kids is overblown (and the press releases certainly are) it’s a decent program. If it serves fewer families than thought, then there should be cost savings through managed care. If it serves more it’ll be close to a wash. Judy wants to get rid of it without much of a plan to extend care to those families. Rod legitimately wins on this issue.
Budgeting wise everyone is working on silly numbers that don’t add up, though Rod’s are probably a bit worse given he absolutely won’t raise income or sales taxes. Judy also admits she isn’t sure of the ultimate answer and pretty much admits her final plan would be what she could negotiate with the Four Tops.
But all of this is crap. It doesn’t matter. What is Judy’s theme? Rod’s corrupt.
To Illinois voters a candidate calling another candidate corrupt is about as effective as pointing out they are a politician. Duh.
And Rod follows up with claiming she is corrupt. Are they comparable? Given the Stu Levine leaks are showing one hell of a mess coming down and that’s only one of many investigations, any infractions Judy is guilty of are probably small potatos, but without an indictment it doesn’t matter. Making it worse, Judy screwed up her campaign finance filings giving Rod just the ammunition he needed to neutralize the issue.
And when it comes to making her look right wing and tieing her to Bush, she happily obliges by keep pulling out lines like her rolling pin being an assault weapon.
She has no narrative, instead she makes arguments about corruption that Rod has effectively neutralized with the public and then about state finances….and the voters fall asleep. Curry sort of gets it, but he’s obviously not in charge of messaging day to day.
What makes Judy attractive to political watchers is she admits she doesn’t know everything and she speaks honestly and off the cuff. And it is exactly that which has doomed her candidacy.
I got my hands on an advanced copy of the new documentary/performance film on Al Franken’s life from about 2002 – 2005. It’s pretty good.
Some other comments I’ve seen suggest that it doesn’t give you any great insight into Franken and I’m not sure that’s the point. What it does well is follow him through this period and give you a good idea on what has driven him to do Air America and now consider a race for US Senate in 2008.
If you listen to Al everyday on Air America, as I do, it won’t be anything you haven’t heard many, many times. However, if you are a more casual listener, you’ll find it very funny as you won’t have heard the bits before and he’s damn funny.
At times the film seems a bit disjointed, but it might because some of the scenes were in Left on the Dial on HBO so those who have seen it will recognize those moments all centering around Air America.
However, there are several interesting scenes with him speaking to different groups and I found those the most compelling. He speaks the most honestly and urgently at those times.
It also provides the best context for his running feud with O’Reilly who hasn’t looked so foolish since OutFoxed.
If you are a fan and listen all the time, some moments will seem a bit slow, but still worth it since it’s more Al. If you are the more casual listener, I think it would be a great film to watch and to follow how his political career has evolved through several years of George Bush and quite funny. I’d definitely go see it. It opens today in New York and depending on how it does, it will spread across the country–on September 29th.
Not quite the same thing as one thinks of in Chicago, but George Allen had an Ethnic Rally and even has video posted on his front page.
Because I’m sure someone at the Allen Campaign will get their head out of their ass or the RNSC will be making a call very soon, Josh Marshall has a screen capture up.
So essentially, he holds an event for all non-whites and refers to them broadly as ethnic. Nevermind that the groups have little in common other than being not white.
Where were the Irish by the way? Or the Polish?
And yeah, really, seriously back tonight. I’ll explain then.
ArchPundit