So this one has been running around my head for a while, though I’d now title it, ‘Why Edgar Might Not Run’.
Certainly the signs from Edgar are more positive than I thought they would be and others like Mike Lawrence seem ready to saddle up.
There are problems for Edgar that no one is really talking about. Pete Giangreco covered some of it in the now famous Capital Fax column, but he left out a couple issues that no one has touched yet.
MSI is obviously a big issue, but how much can a 10 year old issue really matter? Well, when your Deputy Chief of Staff is named an unindicted Co-Conspirator*
From the AP on August 23, 2000
Named as unindicted co-conspirators were former Edgar deputy chief of staff Michael Belletire; former Edgar personnel director Janis Cellini; James Owen, longtime assistant to Senate President James “Pate” Philip, R-Wood Dale; and Terry Bedgood and Terry Logsdon, who were MSI’s politically connected marketing consultants and shared in the millions reaped from MSI’s contract.
Now, the first point is that all of the people foaming at the mouth over Daley’s patronage chief–where’s the outrage at MSI? Pretty similar huh?
That said, I don’t think that means necessarily Edgar knew or was involved. Underlings often do things that they think the boss wants, but that actually horrifies the boss.
Pete took on the wrong issue in relation to crime and punishment. The scandal that few talk about today, is the abhorrent lack of control and order in the Illinios Prison System under Edgar’s Administration. The Speck videotape was the only real widespread public incident concerning an Illinois prison system that was largely run by gangs and out of control. It would truly be a shame if the spotlight on this issue weren’t shown in a 2006 race. While the tape was made in 1988 under Jim Thompsons administration and Edgar blamed the problems on what he inherited, few think the prisons really changed until after George Ryan became Governor. Of course, Ryan had a self-interest in a decent prison system.
Below the fold is a portion of a Kurt Erickson story on the problems in the prisons from late in 1996. That issue is one of the toughest Edgar could face in a fight with Blagojevich.
Add to that and the disaster that was DCFS as Giangreco pointed out and there is some new material to hit him that people don’t remember, but will be a lot harder to avoid discussing if he’s attacking Blagojevich’s ethics.
Furthermore, the problem of how to run on school funding is more complex than Giangreco portrayed. Long time readers know that I voted for Edgar in 1990 because Neil Hartigan was lying about school funding. I then voted in 1994 for Dawn Clark Netsch because Edgar was lying about school funding. And then Edgar turned around, repackaged Netsch’s school plan and tried to pass it.
But how does he run to the right and left of Blagojevich. Edgar can’t run too far to the right–his appeal is being a moderate. And running to the left on school funding and a tax swap has a small problem of, “Haven’t we heard that before”
Get out the flip flop costumes! Is he for a tax swap or against it? If he’s against it, who believes him after 1994?
If he’s for it, how does he placate his base? He’s socially moderate being pro-choice (except about beer tents at the fair), generally supportive of gay and lesbian rights and isn’t likely to join a jihad against gay marriage. So why would conservatives vote for him? Taxes. But what if Blagojevich has staked out the anti-tax position and Edgar takes what I view to be the responsible position for a tax swap. Doesn’t he lose his right flank? Sure the Chamber will still support him, but do the social conservatives who are becoming ascendant in the State GOP?
Some might argue it’s a Hartigan-Edgar race all over again, but with the increasingly blue nature of the state, does that necessarily mean an Edgar win this time? I’m not sure though Blagojevich’s current poll numbers might mean that Edgar would win.
The impact of these issues aren’t only going to exist in the general election. Edgar faced two primary challenges when he ran for Governor by Steve Baer and Jack Roeser. Neither gained much traction, but both candidacies helped form a foundation for social conservatives in the Illinois GOP that had long been dominated by moderates.
Some of the current candidates will drop out if Edgar runs. Judy will jump out of the way. I imagine Gidwitz will, though he’s irrelevant enough to not matter anyway. I think Brady will get out–he’s made suggestions he might. Rauschenberger insists he is in, but one has to wonder if he won’t be able to be moved to a ‘dream team’ slot as Treasurer nominee to run with Edgar as a slate. O’Malley may run, but he’s increasingly marginalized within his own party.
Essentially that leaves either Oberweis or perhaps Oberweis and Rauschenberger to run against Edgar in a bruising primary. In past years, Baer and Roeser couldn’t get press to save their lives, but it would be different this time with Oberweis able to get plenty of press with constant attacks on Edgar.
Oberweis and his allies at Family Taxpayer Network will attack him relentlessly over abortion, immigration, gay and lesbian rights, MSI, and DCFS all the while Blagojevich piles on while Edgar is too busy to attack Blagojevich.
I think Edgar wins that primary by about 5 points and wins a general election by 2-3. But does he want that nightmare of a campaign? Does he want that to define his legacy?
* I believe this is the first time I’ve used the word not tied to Costello
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