March 2004

Present and Accounted For

At this point in a campaign cynicism sets in for me and I pretty much take the charges flying around as ‘the game’. But Eric Zorn offers a powerful counterpoint to the claims that Obama has avoided votes on abortion.

“To provide cover for other Democrats who were shaky on the issue in an effort to convince them not to vote `yes,'” Sutherland said. “The idea is to recruit a group to vote `present’ that includes legislators who are clearly right with the issue.”

Sutherland said this tactic makes the “present” vote look less like a hedge or a cop-out and more like a constitutional concern or other high-minded qualm.

She pointed to the Parental Notice of Abortion Act of 2001, a bill requiring that an adult family member be notified 48 hours in advance when a minor seeks an abortion.

The complaint seems to me to be the equivalent of complaining about fake committees created to kill bills. Being more familiar with the House, bills problematic for certain blocks of Members are sent to an ad hoc committee by Rules. The ad hoc committee never meets, the bill dies. If one was to complain that the chair never even chaired the meeting, you would laugh them out of the room because Da Speaker told them not to meet–well actually Steve Brown told them not to meet, but you know.

UPDATE: I just read the Hotline and I did not take the Title from them. Really! In fact, I think I had this up first.

First Advertiser

Thanks to Justin who is apparently doing an independent expenditure for Obama! All right! And fitting for later in the day.

Let me explain why I’m hyping advertising. ArchPundit is now hosted by Fatdays–essentially a friend who thinks it is cool to have lots of local original content generated. That said, ArchPundit takes more space and bandwidth than we ever realized. It is going to cost more, but other options–such as Typepad turned out not to be realistic. I’m generally uncomfortable with hyping donations because I like to be able to walk away for breaks from time to time without feeling guilty. Ads allow me not to ask for cash and provide something for others. Currently the site is averaging between 400-500 visits per weekday and while the audience is not huge, it is full of political junkies.

Now, for something completely different…Is Martha Stewart on In Chicago?

Okay, Ms. ArchPundit has her knickers in a twist. Martha has been pulled off TV here in St. Louis and this breaks her morning in a way she doesn’t like. Is Martha still on in Chicago?

I’m a bit confused at to the reasoning here–aren’t there lots of folks on TV who have histories with the law? NBA basketball players (not Kobe-he hasn’t been convicted), Kelsey Grammer (who shouldn’t be on for many reasons starting with he isn’t funny), Marv Albert, etc….

For those who are curious as to why there is this sudden departure from Senate issues–homelife was tough yesterday. Martha is very important in the household. It is bad enough on those days when they interrupt Martha to update the world on the ArchBishop’s prostate surgery as they are wont to do.

Interesting Analysis on Hynes

Springfield Dem is known for coming out of left field, dropping amazing analysis and then disappearing again. Let’s hope he doesn’t disappear again after this gem in comments

I still have Hynes 3rd, with Pappas threatening to overtake him. His campaign is listless, message-less, and he doesn’t even benefit from the organization he’s had in the past. Hynes’s organizational strength — in my opinion — is being greatly over-estimated this time.

While Hynes got the AFL-CIO endorsement — it was an inside baseball play using parlimentary rules and the muscle of Ed Smith and Laborers International to mask the fact that Obama already had the support of — SEIU, IFT, and AFSCME — not coincidentally the three of the biggest money and manpower producing unions in the state.

Hynes’ organization is limited to South side irish wards, and the Southwest suburbs organization built by Madigan/Tom Hynes in the 90’s to control House races. Downstate — he’s basically got Metro East locked down. Beyond that, Hynes is relying on name ID and media. Neither are helping him much.

The big problem for Hynes — his ads suck. The Hull and Obama ads are an order of magnitude better than Hynes.

My disclaimer–I like Dan Hynes. I think his work as a financial watchdog is great. That said, the campaign is maybe competent, but certainly not inspiring. If the organization can’t pull out a ton of votes, he’s toast. I have made a few passing references to SEIU in the last few days, but those three union endorsements are big deals and they are unions that go to work for you. The trades are helpful, but not what they used to be.

He does have Metro-East locked up–minus the black vote which will be delivered to Obama by the Jackson outreach machine. Chico has the Mayor of East St. Louis, but he can’t deliver votes in any number. The Central Committee delivers the votes and Carl only won by beating them at retail politics. They’ll go with the Jacksons and whatever walk-around money the can split between themselves. The rest of the black vote in Metro East isn’t much prettier other than some independent minded folks.

Going out from there, the electeds backing Hynes will deliver some votes, but the Hull organization should do well outside of Metro East simply by knowing who to get out. The divorce scandal is below the radar for the most part other than in Springfield. Hull’s ability to spend for a GOTV operation even if it is just calls should outpeform Hynes in areas not controlled by the Jerry Costello.

Overall, this just reinforces Obama’s position at the top and Hull pulling back into second. Hynes isn’t dead, but he has to thread the needle at this point.

Tribune/WGN Poll

Seeing a Trend

Democrats
Obama 33
Hynes 19
Hull 16
Pappas 8
Chico 6

Republicans
Jack! 32
Edelweis 11
McKenna 10
Undecided 35

The Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll is based on telephone interviews with 602 Democratic and 580 Republican voters likely to participate in the Illinois primary on March 16; the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted March 3-6.

Hull bottomed out during this time, so expect some sort of gains for him. Hynes can’t seem to move from right around 20 and Pappas can only do better with commercials breaking. Chico is just the odd man out.

Jack! just can’t seem to break it open to finish everyone off with the high undecideds, but probably is high enough to win. Maybe I’m just engaging in wishful thinking for our democracy, but I have to think that while Rauschenberger won’t win, he’ll pick up a big chunk of late deciders and be the surprise on election day. Oberweis and McKenna have topped out.

Submissions Accepted: Senate Race

Two types of submissions are now being accepted. For nearly immediate publication any grassroots endorsements of the candidates for Senate will be published assuming it meets reasonable taste and legal standards. So send ’em in. I decided to open it up because, well, why not? The space difference is marginal so let’s hear what you think.

Starting Thursday or Friday I will be publishing mock endorsements. And please, not all of them should be for Oberweis. Special no-prizes given to those who can make an Edelweis parody. Taste isn’t much of an issue here, but no bigotry. So get cracking. I’ll post either through early Monday, and then ArchPundit will go to full time election coverage and keep it pretty sparse on analysis.

All requests for anonymity are honored. archpundit@yahoo.com