2003

Misery knows Hancock and you don’t want it

Calpundit and South Knox Bubba are discussing state constitutional limits on spending. As always, the devil is in the details, but here in Misery, this has been pretty much a disaster. While it limits profligate spending, it also makes it really hard to deal with budget cycles. If Misery had been able to bank some of the excesses during the good years, we would have a reasonable rainy day fund to deal with the current downturn.

Most importantly, the Hancock Amendment here in Missouri, has limited effective investment in transportation and other infrastructure investments that have long term benefits. The St. Louis Business community is fed up with poor transporation infrastructure and Hancock is being rightly blamed.

Hancock defines limits as such:

he revenue limit shall be calculated for each fiscal year and shall be equal to the product of the ratio of total state revenues in fiscal year 1980-1981 divided by the personal income of Missouri in calendar year 1979 multiplied by the personal income of Missouri in either the calendar year prior to the calendar year in which appropriations for the fiscal year for which the calculation is being made, or the average of personal income of Missouri in the previous three calendar years, whichever is greater.

Perhaps there is a way to impose a limit and not deal with the problems Missouri has, but my experience is that the best way to deal with spending is through elections.

That time of the week–Joyce Morrison, Jersey County Loon

The most recent Joyce Morrison tract is up and it lives up to her reputation.

Written to an anonymous Mr. Greenshoes it has one funny bit about hemp shoes, but otherwise descends into paranoia and rather bizarre stereotypes.

Other than amusement, this may seem pointless, but let me point out who she is affiliated with:

Joyce is an activist and serves as a member of the agricultural advisory board of U.S. Congressman John Shimkus (R-IL).

Also, she is part of a ministry with interesting supporters like Jo Ann Emerson and Jesse Helms.

Hemp activists generally don’t get to sit on advisory boards of liberal candidates…for good reason. The same would be true for conservative Members of Congress and conservative loons in a sane world.

Some choice out-takes:

You will learn the truth about the UN?s Agenda 21, Biosphere reserves, Sustainable Development, Smart Growth, Wildlands Project, wetlands and wilderness areas, buffers, conservation easements, corridors, viewsheds, global governance and all other ways of control, control, control of the land.

Acronyms such as UNESCO, IUCN, USFWS, USDOT, NEPA, USDA,FSA, DNR, EPA and hundreds of others will be explained.

Don’t forget about the snakes being airlifted into Missouri.

Are you the tree hugger who marches in protest about the timber being harvested and yet you live in a wooden house and brag about your hardwood floors, beautiful oak cabinets and exquisite wooden dining room suite?

Uh, huh.

Is that you who gets into your foreign built car and protests about our American made automobiles and complains about everyone else?s emissions while driving to your over-paid job?

Her she is completely confused. Hippie hemp activists generally are lucky if they have a job. Though, American cars do have higher emissions, but I doubt Joyce bothers with such details.

You are the first to protest drilling for oil in the Arctic (ANWR) because it is "pristine" but you love to heat your home and put fuel into your car(s). Don?t you realize it takes fuel to generate electricity?

Electricity has little to do with crude oil.

Do you protest against the chemicals used in agriculture while playing 18 holes on your favorite over-fertilized golf course?

I think it is safe to say hemp activists aren’t playing golf when they claim to be.

And yet, you are fat and healthy on the cheapest, finest food in the world. While protesting against agriculture in the U.S., you are willing to eat food shipped in from foreign countries where you have no idea under what conditions the food was grown. In the U.S. there are regulations and controls to insure the food?s safety, but who regulates what the third world countries produce?

Just make sure the cheetos are kept around, huh?

Dershowitz and Fitzgerald in the Tipsville

Michael Sneed captures a couple interesting tidbits today:

Dershowitz may file a brief on behalf of Betty Loren-Maltese to keep her original incarceration date.

Two, is too rich to paraphrase:

Rumor is Jerry Clarke, a former top aide to the beleaguered House Minority Leader Lee Daniels, is in line to run the re-election campaign of U.S. Sen. Peter Fitzgerald. So?

"Top GOPers are chuckling that Peter, who considers himself the icon of all that is honest, may hire someone who worked for Daniels, whose campaign practices are being probed by the feds."

Uhhhh..Kevin, it is Bullshit

Kevin Drum tries to understand John Lott’s weighting of responses in the 1997 survey. Kevin is not trusting his internal bullshit detectors–actually they may have malfunctioned from an overload. Overall, the survey is large enough to produce decent results, but one must remember that focusing on respondents within the sample reduces the sample size one is actually addressing.

In Lott’s work that means if 25 people reported defensive gun use, 25 is your sample size. Given that, the margin of error is +/- 20%.

At that point there is no reason to weight because you don’t have a sample size appropriate to make any reasonable conclusions. His new study will not have sufficient sample size of those using defensive gun use to make any reasonable conclusion either.

Lott is a hack. The only real problem with that is people listen to this particular hack. From what I’ve read of his stuff Gary Kleck is far more reliable and trustworthy in his research, but doesn’t get the press coverage because he isn’t a hack.

Michigan Affirmative Action Case

The President opposing the Michigan plan reeks of obtuseness more than anything as Debra Pickett points out. Tom Spencer pointed out the column earlier, but I also read Pickett every week–a hell of a good columnist.

That said, I’m uncomfortable with the Michigan admission process. Actually I’m uncomfortable with almost all college admission processes, but that is a different story. I believe the 20 points is too much to give solely on race in comparison to other factors.

This doesn’t apply to Shrub because it is pretty clear the only reason he got in was his connection as a legacy. 20 points wouldn’t have done him much good and interestingly, Michigan has the Provost’s Discretion factor that limits the impact of such admission to 20 points and 4 points for being a legacy. It is doubtful that 24 points, admittedly in a very different system, would have done it for Shrub.

Ending affirmative action is a cry from some on the right and most of the loudest opponents do a good job of distorting what affirmative action is. Simply put, affirmative action is taking means to enlarge the applicant pool and by doing so providing greater opportunity to individuals. It is not about diversity–or at least should not be. Diversity is a great goal, but it misrepresents what is at stake and if individual opportunity is furthered, so will be diversity. This is my first problem with the Michigan standards. They are written to achieve a goal of diversity when they should be written to promote individual opportunity.

It is true that affirmative action does result in non-formal quotas, but those are illegal except in specific cases of redressing past discrimination and any more the courts have largely stopped such efforts.

In the Michigan case, the standards are pretty clearly described:

The Selection Index has a maximum value of 150 points, with the final score for an applicant representing the cumulative attributes that the individual will bring to the incoming freshman class. Fully 2/3 of the points of the Selection Index are attributable to academics. When test scores are added to the academics, only 27% of the maximum possible points are derived from other factors that assist in enrolling students who will provide a mixture of attributes and characteristics valued by the University. It is our sincere belief that this mixture contributes to the education of our students, as well as fulfills the University?s mission to prepare society?s future citizens and leaders.

So the key factor to admission is academic performance. The hulabaloo trying to claim different is nonsense. In fact, 110 out of 150 points are on academic factors. To claim that race is more important than academics is false.

What is important to note is that the quality of high school is a significant factor as is strength of schedule. In some respects these are great tools. An A in basketweaving isn’t an A in AP Physics. However, this has a significant impact on people applying from poorer districts whether they be urban and largely African-American or rural and white (or latino or African-American). Other than the magnet high schools in the City of Saint Louis, there are no significant AP courses and virtually no honors courses. By no fault of their own, a student coming from Roosevelt High School would be disadvantaged under the system Michigan has in place. At best, under the school and curriculum factors the student gets a zero compared to a student who went to a wealthier district and gets points for nothing but the District quality in which they live.

If we are to be committed to individual opportunity we first need to address the inequality at the primary and secondary levels, but it is perfectly reasonable to pull students up by giving them points for that disadvantage. If they have a poor record in a mediocre school, it won’t matter. But, a student with an excellent record in a mediocre school would have a fighting chance.

How to correct for this is the question that has to be answered in order to promote individual opportunity. Race is one factor that Michigan has specified as being highly significant. Geographic underrepresentation in Michigan is another. In fact, a black kid from Travers City would get huge bonuses in the admission process.

Race is too important under this formulation. It isn’t solely race that is the problem in providing individual opportunity. A white kid from the bootheel faces the same mediocre school and curriculum problems that a black kid from Roosevelt faces. Or within Roosevelt, the black kid and the Bosnian kid face the similar challenges. For this, the way to best address it is to rely more upon socio-economic disadvantage or school district socio-economic disadvantage as the opportunity enhancing factor. It is race neutral and it promotes opportunity. Race neutral should be a goal for any program since we treat race as a suspect classification under the law.

As far as diversity the white kid from the bootheel of Missouri adds to diversity as well.

All that being said, there is an extra barrier to achievement in being African-American. We see differential performance holding socio-economic factors between races constant that surely isn’t a result due to the amount of melanin in their skin. What is the cause of this? Some sort of institutional racism that we might be working towards ridding ourselve of, but still exists. As such, a smaller number of points for underrepresented minorities combined with the economic disadvantage points would make good sense and fit with suspect classification under the law while still providing greater individual opportunity. In fact, such a process might improve diversity along class lines.

I don’t know how a court could determine the difference between 5 and 20 points, but I don’t find the category of race a problem as much as the number of points. For a court to come up with a decent test to distinguish this would be very difficult.