January 2003

Cattle Call: Buy Hines

ArchPundit January 21, 2003 No Comments

Cattle call missed last week, but hey, the Earth shook and it is back.
First, read Steve Neal’s article that is essentially a love fest for Hynes.

The key paragraph is here:

The co-chairmen of his campaign include Cook County Commissioner John P. Daley, County Board President John H. Stroger, Mellody Hobson of Ariel Capital Management, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Vince Demuzio of Carlinville and Laborers’ union official Ed Smith of Cairo.

Burying my head up my ass I was going on about how Daley has been selling Hull, but as was pointed out by a sharp eyed e-mailer, Daley isn’t going to back someone against his old friend Thomas Hynes and the proof is above. John Daley is on board and while that doesn’t absolutely guarantee Richard is going to follow, it is a pretty good bet. Additionally, Stroger has signed on to support Dan Hynes.

More important is Demuzio and Ed Smith. In a divided primary southern Illinois Labor matters a lot. Ask G-Rod and Dick Mell. Jerry Costello pulled out the corrupt Belleville machine and labor to pull off a narrow victory over Paul Vallas in the 2002 primary for Governor. With everyone being from Chicagoland, this might be the key. The open question I haven’t seen answered yet is where is Jerry "unindicted co-conspirator" Costello in this race. Demuzio is a clue, but not a definitive one.

Costello is close to G-Rod and Mell (Chicago Alderman and G-Rod father-in-law) and Richard Devine. He was pushing Devine to run for Governor and offered his machine up. The Devines (Richard and sons) are close with G-Rod and Mell as well. Mell and G-Rod are potentially behind Blair Hull, the multi-millionaire running for Senate as well. Hull provided the plane for G-Rod to campaign on and was the biggest contributor. Where Costello ends up probably determines whether this race is a Hynes coronation or a three way race with Hynes-Hull-Obama.

How this breaks down in the City is the four big players are the Daleys, Mell/G-Rod, Thomas Hynes, and Madigan (Da Speaker). Emil Jones and the Jacksons I place separately because of the way Illinois politics works. My assumptions as of now is that Hynes, Madigan and Daleys back little Hynes. Mell/G-Rod back Hull minus a giant meltdown.

Amongst African-American players, Jackson has backed Obama and is making noises for him. The Jacksons carry a lot of weight around the state amongst African-Americans despite the significant distate for Sr. in civil rights circles. Emil Jones is growing as a power broker and, as noted last week, is a close friend of Thomas Hynes having represented the same district at one time. For Obama to make it a close race, he needs unified African-American support.

Chico has money. Unfortunately money doesn’t beat money and organization.

Pappas is the wild card.

So the new Cattle Call is:

1) Dan Hynes
2) Hull
3) Obama
4) Pappas
5) Anyone
6) Chico

Obama is low because he hasn’t proven himself. Hull falls with Costello. Pappas, who the hell knows. I still have the feeling someone will move her to a 2006 spot-perhaps Secretary of State. Chico has Daley and Guiterrez against him–are you kidding me?

My preferences:
1-2) Obama – Hynes
I like ’em both. Obama has the heart, Hynes has the head
3) Pappas–I think she is stronger versus Peter
4) Hull– Fourth place isn’t a slam.
5) Anyone
6) Chico-with Daley and Guiterrez sabotaging you–might as well call Chuck Percy out of retirement and convince him to run as a Democrat

Donna Brazile is a genius

ArchPundit January 20, 2003 No Comments

I can’t believe this all broke while I was busy with work and family, but Donna Brazile has pulled one of the most magnificently astute moves in politics I have ever seen.

Brazile has been looking to marginalize Al Sharpton in the primaries by recruiting local African-American candidates to run against him in primaries. By doing so, he would be reduced to the side show he should be, kept off prime time convention time, and African-American voters would be offered truly outstanding African-American candidates within the Democratic Party. It is my view that most African-American voters think that Sharpton’s views are too outlandish and he is morally suspect, but that in the absence of other strong black voices, they understand the appeal and even turn to him. It appears Donna Brazile agrees with me (ahem, I agree with Donna Brazile that is).

Additionally, Carol Moseley-Braun was looking at a Senate race in Illinois she couldn’t win. She is an astute political operative, something this writer does not often give her credit for when discussing her weaknesses. She passed up a chance to take on Daley probably out of the reality that being the gnat smashed to ground created severe challenges in later electoral contests. I assume the same level of astuteness saw the challenge of going up against some of the most connected people in the Illinois Democratic Party and then facing a self-financed wealthy incumbent was too much of a hurdle with the baggage she carries.

So Brazile recruited her to run for President of the United States. One might view someone with a checkered political past to be a bad thing for the Democratic Party, but I do not. She is quite appealing on first encounter. She has a broad smile that is infectious, a smart wit, and a charming personality. She is also ethically challenged, but clearly, she isn’t going to be the nominee. She also isn’t Al Sharpton and putting her up in front of the convention isn’t going to incite the same visceral reaction Sharpton does from non-black America.

It marginalizes Al Sharpton and tremendously improves the Democrats chance to take the Illinois Senate seat held by Fitzgerald. While there will be a good fight in in the Democratic Party, that fight is likely to look like a day at the beach compared to the Great Illinois Republican Civil War coming soon to a theater near you.

Bobbleheads add one

ArchPundit January 20, 2003 No Comments

In Chicago the Burt Natarus declared the council could save lots of costs by just hiring three people to tip the bobbleheads at the Aldermanic desks to agree with Daley. Given the Board of Alderman has 50 members and they make just under $100,000 a year, this would save a good, but not significant amount of money for the city. There was, of course, one sticking point. Helen Shiller of the 46th had the gall to actually vote against Daley from time to time.

Limousine liberal has a corrolary in Chicago called the Lakeshore Liberal and Schiller fits the bill. Really they aren’t loony liberals as much as goo-goos (good government types) who think there ought to be someone watching the candy store and caring about the less fortunate. A tradition of proud independents have existed along the Lakeshore and around Hyde Park (U Chicago area) for many years, but over time Daley has either coopted them or beat them or waited for them to die so he could appoint their replacement. In recent years Schiller had been on many 49-1 votes upholding that tradition most exemplified by Dawn Clark Netsch in past years (and notably a close Daley friend and sometimes ally–ally and friend being different).

Today we learn, Schiller has crossed over to Richie’s team. I’m a strong supporter of Richard M, being exiled to a city that doesn’t work, I’ve come to appreciate the intense love he has for his city and how he has molded into a remarkable metropolis. That said, he shouldn’t be left unchecked to threaten to take his pants down when questioned.

Still slow

ArchPundit January 17, 2003 No Comments

Busy till later this afternoon. Cool stuff coming up–

Moseley-Braun running for president and it isn’t that wacky of an idea.
Dick Cunningham series redux
G-Rod fires bunches
Birkett’s whine continues
Dick Mell votes for Chicago War Resolution (I think–gotta check on that)
Fawell Trial sheds light on the depth of corruption in Illinois politics

Hang in there with me and go to Ted Barlow’s for some hilarious stuff–link at the left

I can’t stop giggling

ArchPundit January 15, 2003 No Comments

After reading that Carol Moseley-Braun might run for President of the United States.

Of course, we wouldn’t be worried about Chinese donations to her campaign, just Nigerian. The upside is after being made a laughingstock she would be done in electoral politics.

That being said, Donna Brazile might just be on top of the most effective manner to isolate Sharpton. Let’s face it, Sharpton won’t win, but the key is to keep him from being able to secure a speaking slot at the convention.

Slow Posting

ArchPundit January 15, 2003 No Comments

Slammed–slow today through Friday. I’ll still post, but not at the usual volume.

SUV Takedown

ArchPundit January 14, 2003 No Comments

Gregg Easterbrook addresses the fallacies of safety surrounding SUVs. As usual, he is excellent.

Black Helicopters are dropping snakes

ArchPundit January 14, 2003 No Comments

My favorite loon at the asylum known as the Illinois Leader, is Joyce Morrison, who in a typically over-the-top routine on the evils of government regulating the environment drops this gem:

This would be Guam?s problem, except we may soon encounter a similar problem. There is an unsubstantiated report that a helicopter seen hovering over a wooded area in Missouri dropped two boxes. Supposedly, a curious hunter went over to find the boxes contained Eastern Massasaqua Rattlesnakes, which are endangered and cannot be killed.

Now, I know a few folks who go hunting around here and I can tell you that one doesn’t generally trust what one claims to have seen through the upturned bottle of Schnaps on a cold day.

Added bonus to anyone who can find something resembling a thesis statement in the article!

Leader returns to form

ArchPundit January 14, 2003 No Comments

For a couple weeks the Illinois Leader was primarily publishing a bunch of puff pieces and not doing the usual hatchet jobs on the Illinois Democratic Party and the real object of their hatred–moderate Republicans. But have no fear, today the Church Lady is back and reporting on gossip that Bob Kjellander might be challenged by the ideologically pure.

The beginnning of the article is another attempt to identify social conservatives as adults. Ironic, huh?

When do you fire a press secretary?

ArchPundit January 14, 2003 No Comments

Because I keep thinking it has to come soon. Getting heckled by the lapdogs is a pretty amazing feat even for evasive Ari.