Zogby in Illinois
The Zogby poll has been drawing some attention for the Illinois Governor’s race. The poll reports a dead heat. Why I doubt the poll’s result given how out of line it is with other polls and no clear sign of a movement in the campaign. J-Ry has been animated recently, but not much has changed the dynamic. Ryan’s numbers may be correct, but it is unlikely Blagojevich has lost this much. Rich Miller’s column from last week predicted a collapse, but I noted some reasons why this is nothing like 1998.
Additionally, John Kass argues betrayal is going to lead to a lot of Republicans staying home. I agree with Kass, but I think he misses the divisions in the ICFST. Social conservatives are making a concerted effort to attack the party moderates like those on the ballot this year (save Birkett). Republicans in Illinois aren’t abandoning their party, their party is abandoning them. On one end, Kass is correct. Power for too long has led to a lot of problems and many rank in file have been abandoned by moving away from low taxes and shrinking government. In political terms, this election is the Perfect Storm for the ICFST. First, business left because of the sense the Rs are going to lose. Next, the social conservatives went into a snit when home schooling and abortion weren’t the focus of the party’s candidate. Third, George Ryan infurated the base with his moves to raise taxes and protect corruption.
The only warning point is that Zogby seems to have similar numbers to others in the AG race. Why this is in line, but the Gov race is an interesting question and perhaps the best evidence I may be wrong.
Of the many reasons Zogby probably has the poll wrong, traditional models of likely voters aren’t going to apply Tuesday. And that is too bad. The social conservatives are going to try and hijack the party after this election, and with business gone and the moderate rank and file feeling abandoned, there isn’t going to be any organized resistance. The first effect will be a primary fight against Fitzgerald in two years. When Fitzgerald emerges scarred from that fight, the Democrats will have some fine candidates to take him out. Hynes, Obama, Chico, and the millionaire all provide real alternatives–real alternatives that business will get behind if there are any more delays in the expansion of O’Hare.
It is a sad day when a party loses its moderates. But it is a good day to be an Illinois Democrat.
Wednesday morning–Blago goes to Governor-Elect Blowdry.
ArchPundit