No Clear Trend
In making my guesses for the election, let me make it clear–I don’t see a trend either way. What I do see are specific elections that tend to be turning towards Democrats. I can well be wrong on these, but from reading the background on them and looking at the poll numbers, it looks like Democrats will do better in Senate and Governor’s races this year. I don’t sense a clear trend towards a specific party though. The Governors are a combination of anti-incumbency (w/more Republicans) and strong candidates. The Senate is simply a factor of specific races. Given the Democrats haven’t tried to nationalize this race, it only makes sense that individual factors will determine the outcome. It just so happens those individual factors are probably helping Democrats.