Unfortunately, Chet Culver won the Iowa Democratic nomination for Governor–while I’d still say he’s the favorite over Nussle given the political climate, he’s not nearly as strong as Mike Blouin. Braley won in the 1st CD and will be a good candidate. The real key is more Dems turned out than Republicans in the race which is a reasonable sign of intensity.

In Montana Tester won after Morrison ran into many problems including running a horrible campaign. Either would beat Burns who is the primary Senator tied to Abramoff. Much bigger Dem turnout than four years ago which is a good sign. Unfortunately, Markos still thinks Hull was the establishment candidate in 2004 against Obama. In reality, the establishment candidate was Dan Hynes who is a great guy, but not as good as Obama.

Markos and I have discussed this so the note to him is good natured, but let’s remember what happened in 2004. For the vast majority of the race, Hynes was the presumptive front-runner. Despite favoring Obama, I had to put Hynes as the frontrunner into January of 2004 with only Hull’s media blitz displacing him from my cattle calls. Even then, I’d argue Obama had more momentum than most thought, but few, except SEIU’s political team, thought he’d do as well as he did.

The point being, all the early national expectation was on Hynes, not Hull. Hull actually did a pretty good job of garnering state wide support, but the revelations late in the campaign regarding him and his wife hurt him–though I’m still not sure he would have won.

In California, bad turnout in the Dem Primary for Governor probably kills Busby as it stands now. Given the amount of money the GOP put into the race, it’s still a hell of a run. Billbray only beat his registration numbers by 4 percent.

In Illinois that matters a lot–the 6th District showed a strong Republican self-identification of 24 percent though a high number of leaners with 25 percent. Depending upon how California’s registration number correlate to leaners and strong partisans, it makes IL-06 a tough race. It also makes a race like Kirk’s especially tough in a Democratic District.

In Alabama, both Roy Moore and indicted former Governor Siegelman lost. Both parties showed a minimum of sanity at least.

0 thoughts on “The National Beat”
  1. People should begin to realize that Kirk may have difficulty holding the Illinois 10th. The district went 53% for Kerry in 2004. At that time, Kirk won against a Democrat who spent just $35,000. This year he has a strong opponent in Dan Seals who is raising serious money. Yet, the Illinois 10th does not seem to make the short list of serious battlegrounds in 2006.

  2. “In reality, the establishment candidate was Dan Hynes who is a great guy, but not as good as Obama.”

    I agree. And I will strongly support Hynes run for the Senate seat when Obama runs for President.

    “Hull actually did a pretty good job of garnering state wide support, but the revelations late in the campaign regarding him and his wife hurt him–though I’m still not sure he would have won.”

    I’m pretty sure you would agree, but it wasnt the revelations themselves that really hurt Hull, it was the amaturish mishandling of the revelations. It could have been a two-cycle news story but it went on and on and on…

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