Rule #5. Don’t mistake the “natural tightening” that occurs in the polls at the end of most races in competitive states for a true surge by the trailing candidate.
The Note explained this rule and the Chicago Tribune and the Political Wire need to follow it. J-Ry is @ 37% and not closing. The difference is a drop in Blago’s number. More frightening for J-Ry is he isn’t getting the normal return home numbers typical for this time of year. I imagine he will pick up a bit, but this has to be disturbing to his campaign. Trying to sell these changes as momentum or a surge is silly.
Interestingly, the poll shows Durbin under 50% and is the only one doing so. This sample may be slightly biased given Durkin seems to need to rob a bank to get noticed and a reduction in Durbin’s numbers doesn’t make any sense.