Statisitically it’s a tie against Blagojevich in the WSJ Battleground poll
Rauschenberger 41.3%
Blagojevich 40.4%
The Edgar trial run
Edgar 48.3%
Blagojevich 36.3%
Brady (an unknown State Senator from Bloomington
Brady 37.5%
Blagojevich 42.2%
+/- 3.0%
Given the numbers, my guess is that 40% is the floor below which Blagojevich can’t fall in this state with its Democratic lean. More likely 45% with a bad campaign–though I expect it to not be a bad campaign.
These numbers will be a huge boost to Rauschenberger now that the establishment may well be open to other candidates. With Judy wavering and Edgar out, Rauschenberger seems to be the establishment guy given the rest of the field. These sort of numbers will help him out quite a bit.
If it isn’t clear yet to the supporters of the Guv, he needs a Come to Jesus moment with the voters.
This is an interactive poll, which means you should not read too much into it. The 2004 interactive polls really suckec. This was all done online, so don’t give it much credit.
That said, I do think it is close, but Blago is ahead of both Brady and Rasucy.
With the top tier GOP potentials having “run from Blago” moments I suspect his weakness is being overstated. JBT and Edgar would have given him a fight but Rauschenberger wouldn’t win a competitive senate district much less a statewide.
I realize Blago has his faults, but if any pollsters or political junkies honestly think that Illinois’ solidly blue electorate is going to reward the party of Bush and DeLay next year by electing a hard-core social conservative to the governor’s mansion — a guy who thought Sen. Alan Keyes would be a brilliant idea, by the way, let’s not forget that — well, let’s just say I want to sell real estate to them…
The Republican label will be electoral poison next year by itself, just like the Democratic Party label was in ’94.
Either the CTJ moment will take place or Blago
will just have to wait for people across the state to find out what a right-wing stroke Rauschenberger is.
The way I heard him talk last week, if we could just get rid of ALL the pesky Dems, then Illinois would be just fine. Someone tell this man that our nation wouldn’t be a better place under one-party rule. I assume his failure to notice the unaware of the ongoing corruption trial featuring our former Republican governor led him to believe that only Dems are fallible.
I have one question though, where was the Ilinois utopia when the Republicans held the Gov’s Mansion for what was it, 30 years? I missed that.
I’ll post more on this later, but Blago’s biggest problem is that he doesn’t admit he has problems.
I agree that Rauschenberger has ideological baggage. In fact, I’ve promised to let know one forget that ideological baggage. That said, the Governor does not address the problems around him–like Rezko. If he’d take responsibility, admit he’s made mistakes, it would be a way to begin to recapture trust of the Citizens of Illinois and perhaps do more than simply be reelected, but perhaps be able to govern from a position of respect and authority.
I don’t know Larry, I see Steve close up and see him interact with Democrats from around the country at NCSL functions. One of the reasons he is so well respected is because he doesn’t come across as overwhelmingly ideological. He’s has good predilictions but he his more of the Western Reagan bent then the souther James Dobson bent of conservative. And we learned in the, “Right Nation” that there are differences between southern and western conservatives.
Also, the Governor not admitting his mistakes is one of the saws against the President. Do you think the political class is just come to the conclusion that under no circumstances do you admit wrong doing? It’s a good observation.
With regard to Norm’s comments, if you look at Red-Blue maps you’ll notice that by far most counties in the state are red or purple. I think Illinois has pretty much gone with the winner of the popular vote in modern Presidential election all but 2004. (Please correct if I’m wrong.)
Democrats control the Senate because because they had the honor of drawing the map. And I think are some cool research questions we could ask about changing demographics in the collar counties. In sum, Illinois is a leaner.
Comparing this migration to the burbs and past migrations might also be an interesting tacts. Local Republicans failure to differentiate themselves from Democrats also could be something to look at.
I don’t know Larry, I see Steve close up and see him interact with Democrats from around the country at NCSL functions. One of the reasons he is so well respected is because he doesn’t come across as overwhelmingly ideological. He’s has good predilictions but he his more of the Western Reagan bent then the souther James Dobson bent of conservative. And we learned in the, “Right Nation” that there are differences between southern and western conservatives.
Also, the Governor not admitting his mistakes is one of the saws against the President. Do you think the political class is just come to the conclusion that under no circumstances do you admit wrong doing? It’s a good observation.
With regard to Norm’s comments, if you look at Red-Blue maps you’ll notice that by far most counties in the state are red or purple. I think Illinois has pretty much gone with the winner of the popular vote in modern Presidential election all but 2004. (Please correct if I’m wrong.)
Democrats control the Senate because because they had the honor of drawing the map. And I think are some cool research questions we could ask about changing demographics in the collar counties. In sum, Illinois is a leaner.
Comparing this migration to the burbs and past migrations might also be an interesting tacts. Local Republicans failure to differentiate themselves from Democrats also could be something to look at.
Very interested theme, with attention I will read following registration fees.