Eric then points out the ordinal relationship of immigration on priority lists tends to show an increasing concern.
I understand Eric’s point, but I think using ordinal relationships in polling data obscures whether the public is changing its overall view of the issue or if there is simply movement around the issue.
This is my fault for not laying out the numbers in a bit of laziness, but let’s look at polling data since 2004 in terms of the number of people who identify immigration as a extremely/very important or similar language
Gallup Poll. Feb. 6-8, 2004. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.
immigration 55%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). May 12-16, 2005. N=1,005 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.1 (for all adults).
Too Little Attention to Immigration 64%
Pew Research Center survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Jan. 4-8, 2006. N=approx. 750 adults nationwide. MoE ? 4
Making it tougher for illegal immigrants to enter the U.S.” 51 %
Gallup Poll. March 13-16, 2006. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.
“Illegal immigration” Great Deal 43 Fair Amount 29 Only a Little/Not A lot 28
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). April 21-24, 2006. N=1,005 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.1
“Well, if you had to choose just one, which do you think should be the top priority?”
Illegal immigration 11
CBS News Poll. April 28-30, 2006. N=719 adults nationwide. MoE ? 4.
“What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” Open-ende
Immigration 8
======================
In open-ended questions it has increased from neglible to somewhere between 8 and 11%. That’s significant certainly, but it also seems to be pretty tied to a small group of people who strongly care about the issue.
The overall concern over the issue seems to be pretty stable with all caveats about using different polling methodology and different questions.
So my interpretation is that while the overall numbers are pretty consistent, certainly the salience has increased amongst about 10% of the population.
When one looks at overall views on immigration, the numbers are remarkably consistent about the issue. Before 9-11 the polling shows a lower level of concern with the public hovering around 40% for reducing immigration. 9-11 demonstrates a change in the underlying population with a spike to 58% for reducing immigration, but then number settles down to about 50% for reducing immigration.
So while I was sloppy, I’d say that it seems that the public is pretty stable in its views on immigration with the exception of dramatic events that change the underlying dynamic. Since 2004, general public opinion is very stable. However, I was wrong in saying that salience is low all around since those thinking it is especially important has increased in open response questions.
There are a series of interesting question about whether salience is because the problem has changed or just because political entrepeneurs have raised the issue for political gain. Given the drop after 9-11 passed for support to decrease immigration, it seems to me to be more of a issue to motivate specific constituencies.
In fact, that seems certain given the top poll that shows 68% approval for a bill such as the Senate has generally been heading toward that allows for undocumenteds to stay and eventually apply for citizenship under specific circumstances.
For the change in immigration views overall:
USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 7-9, 2006. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.
Below the flip
| Present | Increased | Decreased | Unsure | |
| % | % | % | % | |
| 4/7-9/06 | 35 | 15 | 47 | 4 |
| 12/9-11/05 | 31 | 15 | 51 | 3 |
| 6/6-25/05 | 34 | 16 | 46 | 4 |
| 4-Jun | 33 | 14 | 49 | 4 |
| Jun 03 | 37 | 13 | 47 | 3 |
| Jun 02 | 36 | 12 | 49 | 3 |
| Oct 01 | 30 | 8 | 58 | 4 |
| Jun 01 | 42 | 14 | 41 | 3 |
| Mar 01 | 41 | 10 | 43 | 6 |
| Sep-00 | 41 | 13 | 38 | 8 |
Larry,
Here is a recent snip snip from the Mystery Pollster, who has the bona fides —
>> Democrats and Republicans disagree over the nation’s top problem. For Democrats, it is Iraq. Thirty percent say so, compared with 21% of independents and 15% of Republicans. Among Republicans, immigration is seen as the most pressing concern. Thirty percent of Republicans cite immigration as the most important problem, compared with 16% of independents and 11% of Democrats.
A Gallup analysis from just two weeks ago (now available to subscribers only) pooled data for this question from the first three months of 2006. It found a similar pattern. Only 4% of Americans named immigration as the most important problem, although mentions were more frequent among Republicans (6%) and independents (5%) than among Democrats (2%).
Open-ended mentions of immigration increased from 3% to 13% from January to April.
UPDATE II: Results from the surveys released today by the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive also confirm the trend. Harris shows immigration increasing from 4% to 19% between March and April as the most important problem. Pew shows an increase from 1% to 15% between March and April in the percentage who name immigration or border issues as the “FIRST news story that comes to mind when you think about what’s been in the news lately.”
I think that fits with what I’m saying—salience increases somewhat, but the underlying dynamic of public opinion hasn’t changed. I think the interesting question is if overall public opinion in the last paragraph I cite moves–I’m betting it doesn’t.