ArchPundit
Houston Chronicle Final Poll Cornryn
Houston Chronicle Final Poll
Cornryn up 6 with 10% undecided. Additionally, one of the more overlooked races in Texas this year is the Lt. Governor. The Democrat Sharp is up 4 points. Who the hell cares about the Lt. Governor? In Texas, the Lt. Governor is more powerful than the Governor. Just another quirky aspect of the Lone Star State. Sanchez may not pull out his race, but he is going to deliver the Lt. Gov and maybe Senator with his GOTV operation.
Selected House races Leach in
Selected House races
Leach in IA
Nussle in IA
Van Hollen in MD
Sumers in NJ
Breakdown 213 D – 222 R
Gubernatorial Predictions IL-Blago IA-Vilsack AL-Riley
Gubernatorial Predictions
IL-Blago
IA-Vilsack
AL-Riley
AR-Fisher
CA-Davis
AK-Murkowski
AZ-Napolitano
HI-Lingle
MD-Townsend
MA-Romney
MN-Pawlenty
SC-Sanford
WI-Doyle
TX-Perry
OK-Henry
and
FL-Bush
Not listed: either I don’t know or not close
US Senate Predictions AR-Pryor MN-Mondale
US Senate Predictions
AR-Pryor
MN-Mondale
NJ-Lautenberg
NC-Dole
SC-Graham
TN-Alexander
CO-Strickland
LA-Landreau-no run-off
NH-Shaheen
TX-Kirk
SD-Johnson
MO–Raining-Talent–No rain-Carnahan
GA-Cleland
IA-Harkin
Most likely to be wrong–Duh Texas
Most likely to come from nowhwere–OK
Illinois Predictions Blagojevich by 56,
Illinois Predictions
Blagojevich by 56, Ryan 40, Skinner 3
Madigan 52, Birkett 48
Durbin 60, Durkin 40
Hines and White in blowouts
Dart 51 Topinka 49
Senate Dems control + 3
House Dems Control + 10
Shimkus 55, Phelps 45
Crane and Kirk not that close
Republican Meltdown–for sure
Banana Republic II? Rich Miller
Banana Republic II?
Rich Miller reports at least one Democratic Senator in Illinois may be willing to vote for a Republican Senate Leader. For those who remember the Banana Republic days when Big Jim pulled a couple dems over to vote for his leader of the Senate which was eventually resolved with Illinois State Troopers, this could be verrrrryyyyyyy interesting….
Endorsement: Lisa Madigan for Illinois
Endorsement: Lisa Madigan for Illinois AG
Joe Birkett seems to think the voters of Illinois are stupid. His role in the Cruz case was problematic regardless of the apologists out there. The support of the DuPage 7 is as inexcusable as Robert McCollough’ s job in the Jack-In-The-Box shootings in Saint Louis County. He has hedged his positions on guns and it is simple dishonesty. The Chicago Tribune covers this issue and I’ve linked to it below. Joe Birkett shows no interest in death penalty reform and he seems to have no interest in consumer protection–something J-Ry has been decent at monitoring.
Lisa Madigan isn’t perfect. She doesn’t have the experience of her primary opponent John Schmidt who would have been a far, far better choice for the Democratic Party. His qualifications far outshine either candidate still in the race or any AG in recent history. Her inexperience isn’t as fatal as some have tried to portray it. Much of the AG’s work is civil and more and more we see a role in securities where her work is far more relevant than Birkett’s. She is smart, articulate and seems to have the makings of a good manager. She also seems to have a sense of distance from her father which is everyone’s biggest concerns. She is deeply committed to supporting a woman’s right to choose and she is supportive of gay and lesbian rights. Most importantly, she supports reasonable gun control. Illinois is a strong gun control state that still respects the average gun owner. She is clearly against concealed carry and committed to enforcing the current laws. The same does not seem to be true of Birkett. While I was initially very concerned about her campaign, I believe she and Dan Hines may make one hell of a duo as the future of a very bright Democratic Party. She is warmly endorsed.
Endorsement: Blagojevich for Governor J-Ry
Endorsement: Blagojevich for Governor
J-Ry isn’t evil. He is a goofball as his moniker in this space is meant to demonstrate. He has spent more time during this election whining that everyone is unfair to him, that people are confusing his name so he should be identified as JRyan, that Blago has unsavory friends and he has already talked about the Cruz case. No one is unfair to J-Ry, he has avoided most of the tough issues and run a crappy campaign without a message. He is an inspiring man in many ways and a committed public servant. But he has campaigned horribly. The confusion over his name is nonsense and almost as much nonsense as Chris Lauzen’s crusade to be called Chris Lauzen, CPA (he tried to change his name to that–I kid you not). Thus he earned the nickname J-Ry as a ridiculous moniker he deserved. I guess it could have been J Diddy. Blagojevich does have ties to some unsavory types, but frankly the Republican Party needs to be a bit circumspect on that issue this year. Finally, he never actually has answered the questions about the Cruz case.
What J-Ry does right is his support for capital punishment reform. He is far more progressive on this than is Blago and that earns him a draw on the Cruz case in my opinion. He is probably more serious as well.
Ultimately, both are lying. The State of Illinois must reform the school funding mechanism. This has been clear since before 1990 when Hartigan lied about it and I supported Jim Edgar. In 1994, Jim Edgar lied and I voted for Dawn Clark Netsch predicting that he would adopt her plan when he won. He did, but it didn’t take a clairivoyant to figure that out. In 1998, I supported Poshard because he was lying less about education than G-Ry. This year, we have a draw. Neither has been willing to address education or any other issue seriously. Instead they have debated corruption and what they have or haven’t done. Neither will do a damn thing to change it either. Miquelon in Southern Illinois and Fitzgerald in Chicago may, but neither of these two has a snowball’s chance in hell of seriously rooting out corruption.
So why Blagojevich? Ultimately, both are lying about fiscal policy and so the tie-breaker goes to social issues where Blagojevich is pro-choice and more likely to support serious efforts at enforcing non-discrimination against gays and lesbians. Additionally, he is a clear supporter of O’Hare expansion while J-Ry has avoided the issue.
Most importantly, Paul Vallas is in Philadelphia thanks to the Jerry Costello and the cesspool in Belleville. Two things were clear about Vallas to them. One he was no one’s tool and he wouldn’t tolerate their raiding of the treasury. Two, he might just be crazy enough to help Miquelon. And hence he is reforming Philly’s schools. Couldn’t we have gotten Rendell in the trade?
Vallas was a budget whiz who knew exactly what was wrong with the Illinois budget and he had the amazing trait of not being beholden to every special interest. When Democrats in Illinois say they want to serve the public, ask them who they voted for in the 2002 primary. If their choice was Blago, don’t believe a word. They supported a Combine candidate who had only the powerful in mind. But hold your nose and vote for Blagojevich. As Rich Miller points out, unless he learns to pick his friends, he won’t last that long anyway.
Endorsement: Bean Crane is
Endorsement: Bean
Crane is a wingnut. Bean has pointed this out. Anyone who doesn’t think this already is hopeless and won’t listen to me.