Call It A Comeback
Jeeshh….
Roskam comes in with $1,066,000 for the cycle and $834,000 on hand.
For the quarter $386,000 raised
From the press release
Roskam FEC Report Highlights
·
Total Individual Donors – 2,402
·
Individual Donors who contributed less than $200
– 1,493
·
Online Contributions – $130,000
·
No personal loans/contributions from the
candidate
Rich points to the Hotline’s post on rising stars in Illinois. The thing I picked up on was the Judy Baar Topinka entry
State Treas. Judy Baar Topinka (R): Running for Gov, leading in
the polls at the moment. Conservatives don’t like her, but “Judy is an
establishment” GOPer in IL, “and establishment” GOPers “win.”
This isn’t necessarily true anymore. Certainly Jim Ryan his primary, but looking back at statewide elections since 1996, we don’t see the establishment dominating contested primaries. Salvi beat Kustra in 1996. Fitzgerald beat Didrickson in 1998. Jack Ryan won in 2004, though one can argue whether he was the establishment candidate or not. The establishment isn’t what it used to be.
That doesn’t mean Judy won’t or can’t win, but increasingly, Republican primaries are moving the party farther to the right and the organization from social conservatives and movement conservatives gives them a significant advantage in any race. Oberweis is polarizing enough that he might not be capable of putting together a win against Judy, but it’s not unreasonable to see it as a possibility. That said the best analysis I’ve seen yet is Russ Stewart’s in which he predicts wins for Judy and Birkett
This race is becoming increasingly hot so there will be a lot of these through the primary.
Stuart Rothenberg ranks the race a top race for control of Congress in Roll Call
llinois’ 6th. Democrats have a shot at the seat of retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R), but they must endure a primary and overcome a district in which Bush drew 53 percent in each of his presidential races. Unsuccessful ’04 nominee Christine Cegelis starts as the Democratic frontrunner, but many party insiders and the state AFL-CIO are backing Illinois Army National Guard Maj. Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran. The GOP nominee will be state Sen. Peter Roskam, a politically savvy and personable former Capitol Hill aide. Roskam starts out as the favorite, but it could be competitive.
Duckworth gets frontpaged in USA Today. While news junkies scoff at USA Today, marginal voters read it. It’s a huge free media opportunity.
Sweet’s article on the 13th about Duckworth’s “Meet and Greet” at a law firm.
IFT backs Duckworth giving her AFL-CIO, SEIU, and AFSCME. If IEA endorses, that’ll give Duckworth essentially all of the union support both monetarily and for volunteers.
Christine gave me a good amount of time yesterday. I didn’t have the twins begging for attention so I was able be a bit more organized for this one. I imagine I’ll have it up Wednesday/Thursday. Tenatively, I’m planning on posting some of it at Illinoize and some at Soap Box Chicago if Jeff likes the idea.
Hotline has the full results.
Blagojevich 52%
Oberweis 33%
Blagojevich 57%
Gidwitz 22%
Gidwitz even loses in the collar counties while Oberweis gets Blagojevich over 50%.
What’s great about these numbers is that Oberweis has 28% approval and 35% approval. For someone without a strong identity amongst the general public, more dislike him than like him. That’s tough to pull off.
The Gidwitz/Rauschenberger plan continues to never need to unravel because it never raveled with Gidwitz have a 9% approval and 8% disapproval. IOW, Whodwhitz.
I understand those who just won’t support Topinka because they disagree/dislike her, but it’s painfully obvious she’s the only one with shot at beating Blagojevich short of him being indicted.
UPDATE: There are more numbers in the Hotline, but I won’t post all of them out of respect for their subscribers. Just in case anyone is curious why I only listed what I did.
Was it okay for William Ligue to attack Tom Gamboa?
Was it appropriate for a bond trader to attack Randy Myers? How do you feel about that?
Was it appropriate for all those people to beat up on poor defenseless disco records?
And while I had reservations, XM Fred playing Guadacanal Diary ended those reservations quite quickly.
If I lived in Chicago I wouldn’t have felt the need so much with WXRT being available and WXRT being on the internet probably stopped me from getting XM sooner. Even with the weird Pretenders obsession of certain XRT Deejays.
The commercial Eric points out actually made me feel better about my purchase–it reminded me that being a kid in central Illinois meant my primary contact with the music world was WXRT through my cable system in the late 1980s and that would have been worth paying for over the crap available locally. At the time I had public radio that primarily played classical and some jazz, a top 35 station in Bloomington-Normal and a 105.7 classic rock out of Peoria. During the school year, 88.1 WESN at Illinois Wesleyan (which I also appeared on in 1988-89) was fun, but erratic. XRT was it in terms of shaping my musical tastes.
While I love the local community radio station KDHX in St. Louis (and I appear on it every few weeks on Collateral Damage), the station has odd choices of music when I most want to listen, and there are about two local talk show hosts I can listen to.
I was terribly excited by XRT’s on-line streaming and still am, but even I’m only at my computer a portion of the day.
I’m generally a pretty sympathetic guy to challenges to the Governor and have been criticizing the guy since before he took office, but I’m not seeing anything credible here. I don’t know where he’ll be before the current day and don’t see any serious arguments against the Governor.
Really, I’m sympathetic, but where’s the beef? Saying the Governor is a pain in the ass is certainly true, but it doesn’t address how he’ll be better or how he’ll win. Nor does it point out how Eisendrath plans on funding such a campaign–an internet ad doesn’t quite cut it.
In theory, I want to get it, but I don’t.
Do you think it’s appropriate for Tim McVeigh to bomb a federal building? Hey, what do you think?
Do you think it’s appropriate that the Irish guys in my neighborhood get falling down drunk?
Do you think Gerry Adams has said something stupid in his life and you should have to comment upon that?
Do you think Matt Hale’s calling Judge Lefkow a Jewish Conspirator was appropriate?
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