Rich points to the Hotline’s post on rising stars in Illinois. The thing I picked up on was the Judy Baar Topinka entry
State Treas. Judy Baar Topinka (R): Running for Gov, leading in
the polls at the moment. Conservatives don’t like her, but “Judy is an
establishment” GOPer in IL, “and establishment” GOPers “win.”
This isn’t necessarily true anymore. Certainly Jim Ryan his primary, but looking back at statewide elections since 1996, we don’t see the establishment dominating contested primaries. Salvi beat Kustra in 1996. Fitzgerald beat Didrickson in 1998. Jack Ryan won in 2004, though one can argue whether he was the establishment candidate or not. The establishment isn’t what it used to be.
That doesn’t mean Judy won’t or can’t win, but increasingly, Republican primaries are moving the party farther to the right and the organization from social conservatives and movement conservatives gives them a significant advantage in any race. Oberweis is polarizing enough that he might not be capable of putting together a win against Judy, but it’s not unreasonable to see it as a possibility. That said the best analysis I’ve seen yet is Russ Stewart’s in which he predicts wins for Judy and Birkett
Hotline, must not have looked at the results of the republican primary’s since Salvi. “establishment” must mean something else outside the state. Just because your a friend of Kjellander doesn’t mean you win.