Just Stop.

If you are arguing that the most recent insider endorsement of Rubio (Nikki Haley) or any other establishment candidate is a big deal…just stop. Stop. It doesn’t matter. At some point you need to realize the rules don’t apply to this election. I argued Trump was a flash in the pan for several months. He’s not though and it’s going to be easier for you the sooner you accept that.  This is a similar point to when people kept insisting that each time Trump ups the ante and says something even more offensive that it will now hurt him.  All the establishment opposition and all the ugly racism, sexism, xenophobia, etc etc etc aren’t hurting him.  In the words of the early blogosphere, the establishment opposition and offensive behavior are bugs, they are features.

The models aren’t holding this year on the Republican side especially. What is most disturbing is that people aren’t putting together what has changed in the last several years.

First, we see unprecedented amounts of money from outside groups. The money is no longer funneled through the party or party elites. That weakens the influence of the party and the party elites.

Second, we have new political tools that don’t require candidates to use party leaders as gatekeepers. You used to need to have lists from the party to build an operation–phone lists, address lists, e-mail lists. Now campaigns can just build those lists in a short amount of time.

Third, the media is no longer an establishment media that goes to party leaders only. There are multiple sources and people tend to choose their media based on their beliefs leading primary and caucus voters away from the establishment sources.

All of this has been going on for some time, but the impact is hitting now as these forces have become stronger and reinforce each other.

It’s all centrifugal forces at work away from the party and the center since the stronger believers who are dominating this year are more polarized and view moving from the center as a good thing. Is it going to be like this going forward in the next election? I don’t know.

We need to remember our models are based on assumptions that the same processes are at work in each election. The processes have changed and the outcome is going to as well. I don’t know if it is a lasting change, but you shouldn’t expect the same result from different actions.

 

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Watch the Organization

I’m always frustrated trying to figure out how the candidates are doing in organizing states.  Reporters for the most part have very little understanding of how campaigns organize themselves and thus don’t report on it.  Not to mention that might take work.

But the hints in the Republican primary point to Ted Cruz putting together a strong organization that can lead him to a victory or near victory, but vaulting him into the top tier.

 

You could feel it in Iowa last weekend. Starting with that Feast of Fat Things on Friday night, the fortunes of Tailgunner Ted Cruz began to achieve breakaway velocity. The Libidinous Visitor wasn’t even in the state. Neither was Jeb (!). And among the candidates who did stop by, Cruz clearly was the one most closely tuned into the frequencies that only Iowa Republican caucus-goers can hear. In addition, he has slowly and steadily built the kind of field operation in the state that can deliver for him in the middle of a blizzard come the first weekend of February. Somehow, lost in the blare of the Trump, and amid the blinding brilliance of Dr. Ben (The Blade) Carson on just about every subject known to man, Cruz has run a smart, stealthy campaign, shrewdly calculating that, sooner or later, the two mock frontrunners will come back to the pack and positioning himself as the obvious choice for any of their voters who choose to go over the side. Cruz has money and organization and, unlike many of his rivals, he seems to be capable of a kind of strategic patience.

Trump doesn’t seem to have much of an organization, but has mastered free media enough that I wouldn’t discount him entirely.  It’s possible he could pull off a win though I wouldn’t doubt if he loses Iowa and wins New Hampshire.  Carson though–well grifters trying to sell books usually aren’t real good on organization building.

All that said, traditionally political science predicts the party determines the winner meaning party elites usually control the process and neither Trump nor Cruz have significant party support.  In fact, the establishment is blubbering incoherently about Trump and hates Cruz.  If there is a year for the traditional model to fail, it’s this year.  Or maybe Rubio pulls it out. Notably the most establishment support is to Bush who appears to be doing everything possible to spoil that advantage.

Nate Silver is convinced Trump is fleeting, but I think he’s being a bit too flippant.  No one has ever run with Trump’s ability to generate free media, Trump is not tethered to donors, and the Republican party has been having a several years long revolt at the grass roots level.  All of that doesn’t guarantee a Trump win by any means, but we have seen it happen time and time again in primaries at a lower level.  We shouldn’t dismiss Trump at this point. Nor Cruz who has very limited establishment support.

Carson, dismiss away.

Cognitive Dissonance Exemplified

Missouri Legislator had a ceremony with a Treason in Support of Slavery Flag over the weekend:

 

The Columbia Daily Tribune reported Sunday that Basye, a Republican from Rocheport, was one of several who dedicated a gravestone to Confederate guerillas who died in 1865. They are buried on Basye’s family’s land.

The ceremony included the Pledge of Allegiance, a prayer and a salute to the Confederate flag, the Tribune reported.

Basye, first elected in 2014, did not respond to a request for comment.

Ellington said he encourages Basye “to think about what his celebration of the Confederacy and salute to the Confederate flag says to his constituents, and invite him to join with us in confronting the racism and mistreatment of our fellow Americans.”

Daily Dolt: Bill Hemmer

Sigh…

Fox’s Bill Hemmer: “I mean as a white American, my entire life I know that this is an electric word. And you stay away from it. … This is something that we thought was entirely off-limits and now you have the President using it.”

Using the word to talk about the word is not the same as using towards someone or an entire race.

That the shiny ball Fox is following is the President using a word to illustrate a problem in a very generic sense instead of the 9 dead African Americans killed by a White Supremacist is very telling.

 

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Jared Taylor unequivocally condemns Roof while equivocating

 

The Council of Conservative Citizens is a group that has long been tied to prominent Republican politicians in the American South and counts opposition to “all efforts to mix the races of mankind” among its stated principles. A spokesman for the group condemned the Charleston shooting while suggesting that the suspected gunman’s motives were still legitimate.

“The C of CC unequivocally condemns [Dylann] Roof’s murderous actions,” the spokesman, Jared Taylor (pictured), said in the statement posted on the group’s website. “However, the council stands unshakably behind the facts on its website, and points out the dangers of denying the extent of black-on-white crime.”

Who is Jared Taylor?  The modern face of eugenics & “scientific racism”

 

Taylor entered the active racist scene in 1990, when he founded the New Century Foundation, a pseudo-intellectual think tank that promotes “research” arguing for white superiority. A year later, he began publishing American Renaissance, a magazine that focuses on the alleged links between race and intelligence, and on eugenics, the now discredited “science” of breeding better humans.

“Never in the history of the world has a dominant people thrown open the gates to strangers, and poured its wealth out to aliens,” Taylor wrote in his magazine, under the pseudonym Thomas Jackson, in 1991. “All healthy people prefer the company of their own kind.” Blacks, Taylor writes, are “crime-prone,” “dissipated,” “pathological” and “deviant.”

Taylor, whose 1992 Paved With Good Intentions: The Failure of Race Relations in Contemporary America makes similar points in a book format, went further out on the racist limb in 1993 by speaking at a conference of the Council of Conservative Citizens, a white supremacist group that has described black people as “a retrograde species of humanity.” Today, Taylor’s New Century Foundation is intimately related to the council through “common membership, governing bodies, trustees and officers,” according to the foundation’s tax forms.

In the late 1990s, Taylor came out with The Color of Crime, a booklet that tried to use crime statistics to “prove” that blacks are far more criminally prone than whites — and that argued, based on a misunderstanding of what constitutes a hate crime, that black “hate crimes” against whites exponentially outnumbered the reverse. That racist booklet is now a staple in white supremacist circles. Taylor’s New Century Foundation also plays host to biannual American Renaissance Conferences, suit-and-tie affairs that attract a broad spectrum of the participants from the racist right, including neo-Nazis, white supremacists, Holocaust deniers and eugenicists. The conferences nearly always have an international presence. Speakers have included such prominent figures in the European radical right as Nick Griffin, leader of the racist British National Party, and Bruno Gollnisch, the then second-in-command of Jean Marie Le Pen’s immigrant-bashing French National Front.

More recently, Taylor has sounded off against all black culture, railing in a 2005 article in American Renaissance, “Africa in our Midst: Lessons from Katrina” that “the barbaric behavior” of the city’s black population after the hurricane revealed a key truth: “Blacks and whites are different. When blacks are left entirely to their own devices, Western civilization —any kind of civilization — disappears.”

One thing that separates Taylor from much of the radical right, however, is his lack of anti-Semitism; he told MSNBC-TV interviewer Phil Donahue in 2003 that Jews “are fine by me” and “look white to me.” Taking this position, however, has proven problematic for Taylor. Although he once banned discussion of the so-called “Jewish question” from American Renaissance venues and, in 1997, kicked Holocaust deniers and neo-Nazis off his E-mail list, Taylor also continued to allow people like Don Black, the former Klan leader who runs the neo-Nazi Stormfront.org web forum, and Jamie Kelso, a Stormfront moderator, to attend his biannual American Renaissance conferences. The problem for Taylor is that many of the most active participants at his conferences and the most committed members of the American radical right are passionately anti-Semitic. To ban them for their anti-Semitic views would be a devastating blow to Taylor’s efforts to make his journal and conferences the flagship institutions of American extremism.

So he doesn’t hate Jews, he just doesn’t mind people who do.

Basically he’s sober enough to talk to the media while Earl drowns himself in bottles of self-hatred along with hating everything else.