With Gore out, Iowa’s organization people probably go to Gephardt. He is incredibly popular there, has a strong ground operation and did I mention labor loves the guy.

Gephardt probably just locked up 30-35% of the caucus vote with Gore’s announcement. Labor is important in the caucus and the only thing that could counteract that is if Harkin starts pulling the strings for someone else, but I don’t see that happening. Harkin is a creature of labor and he and Gephardt are close ideologically and a natural fit. The only other person with a shot at much of the labor vote is Daschle. Even then Gephardt has effectively been on the ground since 1988 and should garner much of that support.

My current prediction is Dean in second as the quirky intellectual candidate that wins the liberal arts college towns and the strange prairie intellectual populist vote that is far more important in Iowa than people think. With those two in the prime position, the next key is who can get to Vilsack. If Gephardt does it becomes a race to beat Dean in second place. If Edwards does it becomes a three way tie with Kerry and Lieberman opting to compete in New Hampshire. Kerry and Lieberman aren’t going to do anything in Iowa. Kerry simply doesn’t fit the state that isn’t into haughty. Lieberman doesn’t have a natural constituency.

In the end, Iowa’s primary importance will be whether Howard Dean can ride it to a strong second place and carry that momentum to New Hampshire where a strong second place to Kerry puts, ummmm…straight money, into the coffers and makes him competitive for the nomination. Look at a dog fight elsewhere between him, Lieberman and Gephardt. Edwards is possible, but he has to get a message that works and he is crowded out of the first two states. People working on a strategy are hoping for a Vilsack endorsement and lots and lots of legwork.

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