Indy Poll for Governor’s Race

A lot of attention focused on Lisa Madigan and the Govenor being about even in the recent poll by the Glengariff Group and then how Topinka faired against the Guv.

But that’s not the news. Neither is Topinka’s being on top. The news is who is at the bottom and Rich Miller catches it. Gidwitz is at one percent raising the question how the hell did they call him and his mother both.

The real news is Steve Rauschenberger down at 3% (4% with leaners) in a poll coming only a little over a year after his candidacy for US Senate. His big challenge is raising cash which he hasn’t been particularly good at in the past, but if he can do that, he can raise his name recognition, but despite a last minute surge in the Senate race, his showing doesn’t seem to have any lasting effect.

Oberweis shows no improvement from last time with 15-16% total support. It’s hard to imagine he breaks the 25% he got in the Senate primary and LaHood is at 8-9% which isn’t bad or good–just about right for a guy who isn’t actively campaigning, but is a Member of Congress.

This race is shaping up to be one between Lahood, Topinka and Oberweis with Rauschenberger being the potential 4th candidate if he can raise enough cash. Assuming Rauschenberger can be competitive and O’Malley siphons off the 10% kool aid drinkers, Topinka is in a very strong position to win the nomination and that is the hardest race for Blagojevich (with LaHood perhaps close behind).

The Details (sub required)

A Glengariff Group (R) poll; conducted 6/2-4 for their own consumption; surveyed 600 regis. IL voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Capitol Fax, 6/15). Dem subsample: approx. 225 Dems; margin of error +/- 6.5%. GOP subsample: approx. 180 GOPers; margin of error +/- 7.4%. Tested: Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), AG Lisa Madigan (D), Treas. Judy Baar Topinka (R), ’02 and ’04 IL SEN candidate/dairy farmer Jim Oberweis (R), Rep. Ray LaHood (R-18), ’04 SEN candidate/state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R) and businessman Ron Gidwitz (R).

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