1) Hull takes the one spot. Ahead in the numbers. Ahead in money. Ahead in future ad buys. One wild card is whether the press takes an interest in his background or not. Reportedly already has slick anti-attack ads to counter any other candidates. Importantly, they don’t name others and they focus on Hull’s positive message. The lesson here is that he already has a strategy for this problem-instead of responding on the fly when campaigns often overheat out of anger. He’s also about going on the air on the Spanish language stations with ads from Congressman Luis Gutierrez.
2) Obama is solid with his base and probably will do better as he actually has some personality and many people are just starting to pay attention to the race. Doing well financially, but faces a Hull of time getting his message out over the air. His yard signs have pictures which will help in the African-American community. Turnout, turnout, turnout for Obama to pull this off.
3) Hynes. Oops. Decent money and lots of organizational support, but not the kind of money he needs. For a statewide office holder to be behind a novice who is digging into the office holder’s base is bad news. He has to attack somehow, but a frontal attack is more likely to benefit Obama. Look for labor friendly 527s to get in the action against Hull.
4) Pappas. Has name recognition, now needs a strategy. She’ll be shut out of the big ending to the campaign, but might position herself well for another office.
5) Chico–no base of support big enough to support him. The Hispanic vote is divided and he needs it united. Has cash, but not enough to stay with the big three. Possible spoiler in some areas of the suburbs where his education message will play well.
6) Skinner–time to throw your support to Obama if you want a progressive candidate, Nancy.
7) Washington–only possibility of effecting the outcome is if she spoils the race for Obama by taking some small sliver of African-American votes.