The earlier leaked poll from Harstad for the Obama campaign confirms one reason why I put some stock in it–the Presidential numbers are in line with other polls:
A statewide poll taken for Illinois Democratic Senate hopeful Barack Obama pegs Kerry at 51 percent compared to 37 percent for Bush.
The internals in the poll are interesting: While women generally favor Kerry over Bush (53 percent for Kerry, 34 percent for Bush), the big divide comes between married and single females. Some 60 percent of single women would vote for Kerry; 26 percent for Bush.
Bush was running only 3 points ahead of Kerry in Downstate Illinois, defined in this poll as everyplace outside the Chicago media market, with most of Kerry’s muscle found among Chicago voters, who backed Kerry 73 percent to 12 percent for Bush.
Obama’s campaign shared with me pages from its poll about the presidential race in Illinois. The poll of 653 likely Illinois voters by Harstad Strategic Research was taken March 25-31 and has a 4 percent margin of error.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it again, if Ryan ties himself to Bush he’ll lose.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Ryan will lose.
Those are staggering numbers for Kerry out of the Chicago “Media Market.” 12%? I assume that includes parts of Will, Lake and DuPage County.
This occured to me the other day…
Is it possible that Obama could do better than Kerry in some Republican Illinois strongholds?
Is it possible a ballot could be cast for Bush and Obama?
That has to be the city percentage. 60-65\30-35 is suburban Cook wipeout margins. Democrats have been winning Lake County (3 of 6 in 2002 statewides). Jesse White won DuPage in 2002 with 54%. Ryan will do better than 12% in the metro but he is looking at a wipeout .
Bush, the war, the economy will drag on him but
Ryan’s biggest problem is he is a lousy candidate. Maybe if he was running against a weak incumbant he could just smile and squeak out a win but against a quality candidate like Obama it is not looking good.
hi world !
….
john
(alanitar)