Same numbers for Judy as in the Post-Dispatch poll and Oberweis is at 21–which is within the margin of error with the P-D poll. The key difference comes in Gidwitz being down at 9 points and Brady at 15. Taking Judy as an established person in people’s minds, she’s unlikely to get much of the undecideds. The way this poll looks, Oberweis would need nearly all of the undecideds.
Brady’s improvement is interesting with being close enough to Oberweis to legitimately say there isn’t much difference between them so it’s not reasonable to ask him to drop out. That helps Topinka by keeping two social conservatives splitting that block of votes. Gidwitz shows no movement in this one so it’s unclear if his commercials are having an impact, but it can’t help Topinka with the undecideds.
That said, the real question to me is whether or not there is going to be a decent turnout. A few commenters have mentioned this over at Rich’s and I’m just not sure that the moderate Republicans are fired up for this race and if they stay home just by a few percentages, it could give Oberweis enough of a boost with a very hardcore passionate support base to pull out a victory. Not only is it possible, but we’ve seen conservative candidates in Illinois Republican primaries pull this off fairly often. The big challenge here is whether Brady will pull enough conservative votes from Oberweis. Even without that Oberweis may just be toxic enough in his own party that there is a hard cap he can’t get beyond, but the poll indicates a 44 % approval amongst Republicans which is a problem in a general election, but in a primary, it’s probably high enough given he needs people who would think enough of him to vote for him.