Let’s start off with the full and clear admission that behind held to 41% below a challenger is a very bad position to start from in a general election. Yet, despite this, there isn’t the smell of death you’d often anticipate for such a situation.
A couple breakdowns really stood out at me. Democrats don’t have to win outstate, but the certainly need to keep their margins ups. In Southern Illinois, a relatively small percentage of the population, Blagojevich is up significantly with 48% of voters compared to Judy’s 34%. That’s surprising. West/Northwest is nearly tied with 35/36–and that is odd given two statewide electeds are producing this many undecideds.
The Governor is getting killed in Central Illinois which fits the primary results, but given the screaming about downstate and how much he’s disliked, the effect seems largely contained with Central Illinois.
Cook County is also strange in that he’s losing it 48 to 31 which is surprising given the increasing Dem tilt, but then again Judy is from the southland area where Dems have made the biggest inroads. The collar counties produce a negative 10 right now which isn’t very surprising. Blagojevich’s Chicago numbers are holding up–he’s at 63% and I’d bet he’ll solidify that as long as Meeks doesn’t get in.
The numbers on women are close, which isn’t what I’d expect given a moderate woman for the GOP side.
In other races, while I think Rutherford is a good guy, I’ll support Jesse any day and 59% of respondents agree. Pretty much everwhere, but Central Illinois Jesse is ahead and over 50% everywhere but Central Illinois and Collar Counties.
Jesse won’t win 102 counties this time, but I bet he wins by as much as 20%.
The Radogno numbers are interesting in that a newcomer is beating her–it’s still very early, but those results are not good for the Republicans. Worse, it doesn’t appear G-Rod really has any negative coattails.
“Generally speaking, would you say that you consider yourself a [ROTATE] Republican, a Democrat, or would you call yourself an Independent?”
I wonder about that one. I would’ve used “unaffilated”, “no-party” or something like that. Everyone considers themselves independent.
I wonder when the majority of Central Illinois is going to come around. In my ten years here, the local paper has NEVER endorsed a Democrat for President, Senator, Governor, or Congress…and yet every week there are letters to the editor belittling the paper for being a “liberal rag”.
Got some real wacko right-wingers up here, that’s for certain. I do just fine with moderate Republicans, and there are a few up here, they’re just outnumbered by the padlock-minded bunch.
Good analysis. Can?t say I disagree with anything you?ve said.
I see a few similarities emerging between this race and last year?s gubernatorial contest in Virginia. Blago does seem to have a knack for the economic populism that can help a liberal Chicagoan win big with rural Blue Dogs. In fact, I think Rod will take a larger portion of ‘downstate’ IL than Kaine did of Southwest VA. But Judy?s moderation will make her FAR more competitive in the collars than Kilgore was in Fairfax County. I think we are gonna have a close race on our hands right thought November, and the key will be mobilization and messaging. Assistance with the former is one of the most important things that the RNC can give Topinka, even more important than fundraising. The new voter ID strategies developed in ?02, refined in ?04 and ?06, will help take the edge off of organized labor voter mobilization efforts by the Dems.
It?s gonna be a lot of fun folks. But pace yourself, because it?s gonna be a long one as well!
I feel like there is a lot of good things going on these days, alot of grassroots organizing, alot success stories. But how do we get these success stories told? How do we make sure more people know the positive things that are happening. After all I think cyncism and apathy are our real enemies.
I think independent media orgs are doing a great job, but we need to reach a larger audience, so that people know there is hope, that there is an alternative. I think we need to take advantage of video as a mass media on the internet.
Check out these online independent news videos
–http://www.coanews.org/video
And there is also a Free “Video Alert Service“.
http://www.coanews.org/lists/index.php?p=subscribe Once a week, email subscribers get the latest news videos for a diverse group of independent media outlets (democracyNow!, G Channel et and FreeSpeech!..) sent to their inbox.
You can sign up for free email video alerts here:
http://www.coanews.org/lists/index.php?p=subscribe
But again; how can we reach more people with this media?
I think that independent media orgs, need to focus more on video (like Freespeech does), but beyond that we need to find a way to disseminate them to a larger audience.
Online video is taking off right now, and we need to position ourselves so that independent media is an established and accessible part of the landscape. Corporate media outlets, and advertising agencies, are drumping boatloads of money to ensure they are established online video distributors, while also trying to narrow the range of video available.
We need to raise funds (more people donating, and becoming members of indy media orgs)for independent media so they can compete. Perhaps indy media orgs could have citizen coalition groups to take an active role in rallying people to raise funds. I believe PBS and NPR have groups like this, so why can’t we do the same.
-maybe a trust or fund controlled by citzens?
-but we also need a grassroot movment to help disseminate their content, and keep the internet open. Part of this is simply using any way possible to promote the online video that is produced by indy meida orgs – use your website, blogs, email lists, classes, workers groups etc…
There is no time to waste