Zorn has the right take on the exit polls, but let me offer just a bit more. The polls are pretty close to right once they were weighted for turnout which happens after the polls close. It’s not a huge deal, really.
It does renew my interest in doing a series on polling though and I think I have some outside folks who might be interested. In the interest of my sanity though I’m going to hold off for a bit and return to having a normal life.
That said, I’m also aiming for my Second half of November break so if you are interested in guest blogging drop me a line or post in comments. My biggest preference is non-blogging folks as of now, but will certainly consider those with other blogs. Partisanship is a factor, but certainly folks like OneMan are good reads so not the only factor.
If you have links to add send them to me with New Link in the subject. It’ll be a bit before I make changes, but if I have them handy, it helps.
And one of my favorite commenters has a new blog–Springfield Dem. But I lost the address so if he could send it to me, I’ll add it soon here.
Ummm…why would you weight exit polls for turnout?
Just curious.
You can’t have enough poll watchers so you make sure you can get the demos covered at representative polling stations. Then, because you the number of rural districts is so hard to get to–you weigh the results by matching the precincts to those with the closest demographics and figure out the proportional turnout.
once they were weighted for turnout which happens after the polls close
The tortured justifications by for this theft is getting out of hand.
Turnout after the polls closed was overwhemingly in Democratic precincts (Cuyahoga County reported last) because the big turnout and voting inefficiencies meant that they had to stay open longer. By your own logic then, Dems should have had an even GREATER tally than what the exit polls.
Why are so many refusing to believe the boxes are rigged, and instead going out of their way to argue why we lost?
Talk about living in denial. Posts like this just show that too many of us are MORE brainwashed than Republicans.
No, I just understand polling fairly well. Look, there was a big turnout in rural areas, small towns, and exurbs with lots of conservative evangelicals. That this threw off the raw numbers isn’t surprising.
Why are so many refusing to believe the boxes are rigged, and instead going out of their way to argue why we lost?
No one is “arguing why we lost”… he is explaining why the two sets of numbers are substantially different.
I think entering into an investigation of whether this particular election was stolen is a waste of time and energy. Even if we could prove to ourselves that we should have won the electoral numbers, we would still have to figure out why — despite the Democrats being better financed and organized than ever — three million more people voted for the Worst President Ever.
Those voters are not all stupid and bigoted. We need to find a way to better communicate our values and principles to those people. If we can figure that out — and I fully believe we can — more people will vote for Democrats and we will not need to try to play accounting tricks like the GOPers.
I got a snide letter published in the Sun-Times questioning Bush’s legitimacy.
But the reality is that even if he stole Florida and Ohio, he still got alot of votes. Way more than he deserved based on his policy achievements justify.
Voting is driven by emotion. What’s up next?
We carry on with the fight… Who have we really had to believe in since Bobby was shot in that hotel kitchen in LA?
Keep the faith, Carl.
Since “what next?” was asked, may I suggest “Don’t think of an elephant” by Geo. Lakoff? It is a short read at 100 pages and is made-up of several essays. So you can read it an-essay-at-a-time in the bookstore if you contributed ’till it hurts and don’t have the cash to buy it right now.