[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0[/youtube]
Worst analysis ever:
“In politics,” he said, “you never know who’s going to die, retire or — in Illinois — get indicted.”
He was prescient. The next week, Rod Blagojevich was arrested.
So you could say Schock has been running for the Senate for the last two years. His photo spreads in Details and GQ have made him the only congressman whose celebrity transcends politics (just as Obama was one of the few senators).
In Giannoulias, though, he’ll have a target — a freshman senator entering office under an ethical cloud. Giannoulias will be a slavish follower of the president, which means that in 2016, he’ll have to answer for any weariness the voters feel about the (presumably) outgoing Obama Administration. Also, Democrats won’t be able to use youth as an issue against Schock (not that that’s ever worked against him, obviously). At 35, he’ll be a year older than Giannoulias is now.
Ward Room’s prediction: if Giannoulias wins, Schock will make him a one-termer. Check back with me then, if the Internet is still around in 2016.
This guy was elected to the school board when he was 19, to the state legislature when he was 23, and to the House of Representatives when he was 27. Only the U.S. Constitution has been able to put a brake on his upward mobility, with that clause requiring ambitious young bucks to get some seasoning before joining the World’s Greatest Deliberative body. By 2016, Schock will have eight years in Congress under his turquoise belt.
To be fair, Schock has matured: people who once called him “Doogie Howser” now compare him to Neil Patrick Harris’s latest character, Barney Stinson of “How I Met Your Mother.”
Edward McClelland is partisan and trite.
His future career opportunities will be in Republican media work.
Don’t underestimate Aaron Schock’s ability to attract liberal and moderate voters. He represented a Democratic district in the state legislature. His successor is Jehan Gordon, a black female Democrat. Schock is a politician whose broad personal appeal has a way of making voters ignore his conservatism.
Beating Ricca Slone wasn’t a big feat and it was before he began to take very conservative positions. He didn’t have to do that as a school board member.
But keep on trying to sell that for him. I’m sure his 2014 campaign for Gov or Senator thanks you now. However, we’ve heard that same story before in Illinois with Jack Ryan. Personal appeal doesn’t overcome right wing politics in a blue state. You might notice the Aaron Schock before Aaron Schock may pull off a victory with a more moderate voting record and a terrible opponent in Alexi, but even that is close.
I know your heart is all aflutter, but the median voter theorem works pretty well in most elections and Aaron Schock is nowhere near that in Illinois.
So, Mr.McClelland doesn’t really think Kirk has much of a chance and is looking at 2016. Interesting.