Governor’s Race
ArchPundit
79 percent reporting–Hynes down by 10,000 votes which is getting closer.
Dillard and Brady down by about 3,000 votes on McKenna
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With 97 Percent
Dan Seals is ahead by just under 700 votes.
Things That Will Make Me Cranky
Having to choose listen to Pat Quinn and Andy McKenna for months. Please save us doswnstate.
Wow, Jim Warren on a Trib Property
That gives them some credibility–too bad they canned him and lost him day to day.
Why?
Is Jack Ryan on my Teevee?
Predictions
I knew I should have done these over the weekend–I got tied up yesterday, but anyway.
Governor: Hynes–Eric says people like Quinn, but I don’t know those people. They know him becuase he holds all ofthose press conferences, but the guy has a 25 percent overall approval rating. While he does better with Dems, he’s still not that liked by them. Hynes could be in trouble if the turnout is as bad as Rich is reporting.
For the Rs: McKenna–no one really stood out so my guess is his big media money is going to put him over the top. Dillard might pull it out, but edge to McKenna. Expect Adam and Proft to do better if turnout is really bad.
Senate: Alexi–Hoffman has made a reasonable case for being Mayor of Chicago, but has virtually no unions backing him and no ground game to take advantage of a low turnout.
Kirk–low turnout could mean Hughes gets up to 1/3 of the vote, but not nearly enough.
County Board: Preckwinkle should take it and take it relatively easily.
10th District: Hamos. She has largely outmaneuvered Seals with tons of support from elected and unions.
Coulson goes down to Dold. Too many angry right wingers out there to allow another moderate in that seat. Bodes ill for the Republicans keeping the seat in the fall.
The downballot races are crazy so I really don’t know. Raja has run a good campaign, but the big races have suffocated the smaller races and a guy with the name Miller has a good shot in this environment.
The HELLLLLL With the Rest of Them
Via Rich
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PPE9RkQWig[/youtube]
I do have a Twinkie With 19 Candles though
No thank you, see ya
I’ll take a slice.
Classic. Just fucking classic
Conservative Chickens Coming Home to Roost
When you lie down with Jack Roeser and his funded enterprises you get the kind of garbage Petey is running on his Republicans for Family Values web site now. He’s attacking a suburban candidate and office holder for having an affair with two different men over the years. (no link–story mentioned by Capitol Fax).
The story below? About Mark Kirk allegedly being gay.
But it’s Andy Martin who is a scumbag. It must be that because Jack Roeser and Petey Labarera are perfectly acceptable sources for stories for many news outlets in Illinois. But if Andy Martin says something he gets condemned.
Of course Andy Martin should be condemned and largely ignored–he’s a loon. The question is why are the people he’s citing in his commercials not being treated as loons? Or people who have been running this rumor for months trying to derail Kirk and now another candidate?
To be clear, most of the Republicans I know including the socially conservatives think Petey is an asshole and nutjob. But he’s still gets plenty of press because he has a point of view to include-even if much of it is based on rumor and innuendo. Will we hear Pat Brady now denounce Jack Roeser and Petey for their dirty politics–or will he sit back and pretend it’s only the Andy Martin’s who are a problem?
I think we know the answer to that.
Interesting Crosstabs in the PPP Poll
Hynes is up with African Americans 45-38, while Quinn is up amongst Hispanics 44-36. That’s interesting on both accounts. Obviously Tom Hynes’ campaign against Washington has been discussed to death, but Quinn has had a pretty rock relationship with Latino legislators. Amongst whites they are tied.
Ideologically, Quinn is up only 44-40 amongst liberals which should be where he picks up a big portion of his votes. Hynes does better with women and Quinn with men.
I think the most telling number is in Quinn’s favorability amongst Democrats though. He has 38 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval. That’s pretty tough to fix and could likely be toxic in a general election.
Quinn’s strongest base is with the elderly where he leads Hynes by 10.
In the GOP race for Governor, most fascinating is that the conservatives are split relatively evenly between the candidates. For all of the ideological battling, there isn’t anyone running away with that group of voters. While conservatives have certainly gained in the Illinois Republican Party ideologically, they are hardly a homogeneous group. To me, this is why the Tea Parties are far less effective in Illinois than places like Misery.
Hynes Up 1 in Public Policy Polling Poll
That’s obviously a dead heat, but it’s the first poll of the cycle with Hynes up.
Quinn hasn’t had an effective response yet to the furlough program or the Washington ad so I have to imagine he’ll continue slipping. I couldn’t catch the debate from last night so I can’t analyze its impact, though one has to think not many undecideds at this point are listening to a debate.
Dillard is up 2 points on McKenna with Brady close behind. While Brady might try and say this is a good result, he has little money and if he hasn’t built up a reservoir of support, he doesn’t have the money to hit undecideds with last minute messages. It certainly looks like this is shaping up as a race between Dillard and McKenna though I wouldn’t count out Jim Ryan either.
The Senate numbers show Kirk maintaining a huge lead and Hughes dramatically underperforming. Giannoulias is up 12 on Hoffman and 14 on Jackson. Hoffman may start to realize running a general election campaign in a Democratic primary wasn’t the wisest move.