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The Surprise of the Cycle

Cegelis. This is one that shouldn’t be entirely surprising given the Gore-Bush results in 2000: 44 Gore 53 Bush Other 3

If Cegelis wants another run, she should signal it soon, because this should be a DCCC targeted race. Keeping a longtime incumbent to 55, with changing demographics is a potential target. If Hyde steps down it’s an open race or if he sticks around–Crane redone. Dems are still at a disadvantage, but not a great one.

About the Pic

One important thing to keep in mind is that while the conservative evangelicals (evangelical=/conservative as 25% voted for Kerry) aren’t the Republican Party, if about 25% of voters thought moral issues were number one priority and 25% were largely overlapped with white protestant evangelicals with some conservative Catholics thrown on top, what’s going to happen to Republican primaries when these folks come out in bigger numbers each primary than they have in the past? Better get Keyes out of here before he runs for something again.

In Illinois, the numbers were slightly lower due to demographics, but that also means that there are fewer Republicans in total.

Interesting stat is that as a nation as a whole more Democrats crossed to Bush than to Republicans for Kerry. In Illinois, that is reversed.

From the Inbox

Senator Richard Durbin, D-IL, news conference today

3:45 pm (Eastern time) in Chicago, IL

to announce he has locked up the votes for democratic whip.

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Good news. I like Dorgan as a guy, but I think we can see the danger of having a red state Senator in a high visibility leadership position. Durbin’s been a hell of a fighter laterly and he’ll do a great job.

Rauschenberger In

Hang on folks, the race for Governor in 2006 has officially started! WOooohOooooooo!

Capitol Fax Reports Rauschenberger is in!

I’ve said many nice things about Steve in the past. He’s a goto guy on state budget issues and is incredibly bright. I’d considered him a reasonable Republican, until he and Syverson joined in inviting Alan Keyes to Illinois and now I think Rauschenberger has sold his soul to Jack Roeser and Roeser’s cash to win the Republican Nomination fro Governor. Roeser is a wingbat and if that is the campaign it’s going to be, no thank you. If Rauschenberger is the guy to take on the Blagorgeous, I’ll be backing the Blagorgeous thank you very much. He’s a pain the ass, but unless someone primaries him, he’s my pain in the ass.

Someone better get in this race fast if they want to raise the money and paint him as extreme.

The weird part is that O’Malley was running for Governor and now he either has to challenge Rauschenberger or go for some other race.

In other fun, Chris Lauzen is threatening to run for another statewide office.

I love roadkill. Especially when it’s funny so jump on board Chris.

Wait, That’s Chris Lauzen, CPA.