Rod McCulloch compared his statewide results to the final results and he shows pretty good numbers this cycle (his 8th District poll kinda stunk, but that happens)
For the second straight election cycle, the most accurate statewide Illinois polling numbers came from McCulloch Research & Polling, a Chicago-based polling company, according to an analysis released by the firm today.
In both the Illinois U.S. Senate race, and the Presidential race in Illinois in 2004, MRP?s final polling results, were the most accurate when compared to other polling firms? numbers.
In the Presidential race, McCulloch?s October, 2004 Illinois poll, released the day before the election, showed Senator John Kerry with a lead of exactly ten percentage points. His final margin in the the state was actually 9.92%, or only .08% off of the Illinois poll.
Similarly, the Illinois Poll showed Barack Obama?s final percentage at 70.1%. He actually received 69.9% of the vote from Illinois voters on election day, or a difference of .2%.
While all statewide polls had Democrats John Kerry and Barack Obama leading consistently throughout the campaign, their final numbers and margins of victory were all over the map, depending on which poll you read, according to Rod McCulloch, the company?s pollster.
In the Presidential race, other polls released late in the campaign showed Senator Kerry?s lead anywhere from 8% (Chicago Tribune) to 14% (Research 2000). The final poll from SurveyUSA showed a 12% Kerry lead. Only McCulloch Research & Polling had the margin right.
In the Senate race, again, all surveys showed a solid lead for State Senator Barack Obama , but every poll except the October Illinois poll underestimated Mr. Obama?s strength in the polls. Rasmussen Research?s final survey showed Mr. Obama?s total at 64%, while the Chicago Tribune had him at 66%, Survey USA also at 66%, and Research 2000 at 67%. Again, the October Illinois Poll was the only one right on the money with regards to Mr. Obama?s final vote percentage.
These results mirror what happened in the 2002 Illinois Governor?s race, where again McCulloch Research & Polling was the most accurate. In that race, MRP?s October, 2002 Illinois poll, released the day before the election, showed the margin of victory for then Congressman Rod Blagojevich to be 6.8%. The final margin for Mr. Blagojevich was 7.12%, according to the State Board of Elections, for a difference of .34%.
When compared to other polls released late in that campaign, MRP again comes out on top. In a poll released on November 1, 2002, Zogby actually had Jim Ryan winning that race by .3%. Other polls released in the final days of the campaign were varied. Survey USA had Mr. Blagojevich?s lead at 14%, KRC Comm had it at 12%, Research 2000 showed a 11% margin, and the Chicago Tribune weighed in with a 10% spread.
What does this mean? He’s doing a good job on statewide polls over the last couple cycles.
ArchPundit