Let’s start off with the full and clear admission that behind held to 41% below a challenger is a very bad position to start from in a general election. Yet, despite this, there isn’t the smell of death you’d often anticipate for such a situation.
A couple breakdowns really stood out at me. Democrats don’t have to win outstate, but the certainly need to keep their margins ups. In Southern Illinois, a relatively small percentage of the population, Blagojevich is up significantly with 48% of voters compared to Judy’s 34%. That’s surprising. West/Northwest is nearly tied with 35/36–and that is odd given two statewide electeds are producing this many undecideds.
The Governor is getting killed in Central Illinois which fits the primary results, but given the screaming about downstate and how much he’s disliked, the effect seems largely contained with Central Illinois.
Cook County is also strange in that he’s losing it 48 to 31 which is surprising given the increasing Dem tilt, but then again Judy is from the southland area where Dems have made the biggest inroads. The collar counties produce a negative 10 right now which isn’t very surprising. Blagojevich’s Chicago numbers are holding up–he’s at 63% and I’d bet he’ll solidify that as long as Meeks doesn’t get in.
The numbers on women are close, which isn’t what I’d expect given a moderate woman for the GOP side.
In other races, while I think Rutherford is a good guy, I’ll support Jesse any day and 59% of respondents agree. Pretty much everwhere, but Central Illinois Jesse is ahead and over 50% everywhere but Central Illinois and Collar Counties.
Jesse won’t win 102 counties this time, but I bet he wins by as much as 20%.
The Radogno numbers are interesting in that a newcomer is beating her–it’s still very early, but those results are not good for the Republicans. Worse, it doesn’t appear G-Rod really has any negative coattails.