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ArchPundit
The Prediction Post
Going race-by-race in the House gets me more switches than going with an overall model, but here are my predictions for US House, US Senate, and Governors. I also add in my Illinois predictions.
For the House, IA-2, IL-10, and CO-5 are the longer shots, but almost all the other are what happens with a 2-1 split on undecideds to the challenger. If I had to do an estimate based on a generic number I’d probably put the pick-up between 30-35 so going race by race I end up with more. The wave seems to be uneven so I’m betting Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New York, Colorado, and Ohio will have the races playing off of each other. We then have some spectacularly badly run races (Hayworth) and some scandals such as in California. Otherwise, just a little nudge in places where incumbents haven’t been tending to the District well and they’ll get blindsided.
The thing about waves is that they don’t take out the most entrenched, they take out those who aren’t paying attention and are in swing or leaning seats. Nearly all of the above except the Nebraska seats fit those categories. There’s something in the water in Nebraska this year.
In the Senate, the only long shots are Pedersen and Lamont. Obviously some of these races are not definitive, but with the national winds, the ties should go to the Dems.
For Governor, I think mine are all the conventional wisdom except Alaska and Nevada. Nevada has the scandal going on and somehow Knowles has some weird mojo that’s made him competitive.
Illinois. I still don’t get why Hynes doesn’t have the biggest margin–then again, the guy just had twins and has hardly campaigned and is headed to a 2-1 margin. Rutherford has laid a big egg during this race. He’s barely, if at all, raised his profile which was the entire point. Stu Who? did even worse.
The other three races, well, those are predictions, not wishes.
The Illinois Senate isn’t one I’d bet my life on, but looking at the races that are competitive and the national wave interacting with local dynamics, the Dems should have some pickups.
The House–everyone’ll think I’m crazy, but despite playing almost all defense, the national wave and Congressional races will pick up three races is my guess. I have pretty low confidence in that one.
* Indicates a pickup.
| House District | ArchPundit | Senate | ArchPundit | Governor | ArchPundit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Renzi | AZ | Pedersen* | AK | Knowles* |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell* | CA | Feinstein | AL | Riley |
| AZ-08 | Giffords* | CT | Lamont | AR | Beebe* |
| CA-04 | Brown* |
DE | Carper | AZ | Napolitano |
| CA-11 | McNerney* | FL | Nelson | CA | Schwarzenegger |
| CA-50 | Busby* |
HI | Akaka | CO | Ritter* |
| CO-04 | Paccione* | MA | Kennedy | CT | Rell |
| CO-05 | Fawcett* |
MD | Cardin | FL | Crist |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter* | ME | Snowe | GA | Perdue |
| CT-02 | Courtney* | MI | Stabenow | IA | Culver |
| CT-04 | Farrell* | MN | Klobuchar | ID | Brady* |
| CT-05 | Murphy* | MO | McCaskill* | IL | Blagojevich |
| FL-09 | Bilirakis | MT | Tester* | KS | Sebelius |
| FL-13 | Jennings* | NE | Nelson | MA | Patrick* |
| FL-16 | Mahoney* | NJ | Menendez | MD | O’Malley* |
| FL-22 | Klein* | NM | Bingaman | ME | Baldacci |
| GA-08 | Marshall | NV | Ensign | MI | Granholm |
| GA-12 | Barrow | NY | Clinton | MN | Hatch* |
| ID-01 | Grant* | OH | Brown* | NE | Heineman |
| IL-06 | Duckworth* | PA | Casey* | NH | Lynch |
| IL-08 | Bean | RI | Whitehouse* | NM | Richardson |
| IL-10 | Seals* | TN | Corker | NV | Titus* |
| IL-11 | Weller | TX | Hutchison | NY | Spitzer* |
| IL-17 | Hare | UT | Hatch | OH | Strickland* |
| IN-02 | Donnelly* | VA | Webb* | OK | Henry |
| IN-08 | Ellsworth* | VT | Sanders | OR | Kulongoski |
| IN-09 | Hill* | WA | Cantwell | PA | Rendell |
| IA-01 | Braley* | WI | Kohl | RI | Carcieri |
| IA-02 | Loebsack* | WV | Byrd | SC | Sanford |
| IA-03 | Boswell | WY | Thomas | TN | Bredesen |
| KS-02 | Boyda* |
+7 52-48 | TX | Gov Goodhair | |
| KY-03 | Yarmuth8 | VT | Douglas | ||
| KY-04 | Lucas* | WI | Doyle | ||
| MN-01 | Walz* | WY | Freudenthal | ||
| MN-06 | Wetterling* | +10 32-18 |
|||
| NE-02 | Moul* | ||||
| NE-03 | Kleeb* | ||||
| NV-03 | Porter | ||||
| NH-02 | Hodes* | IL Races | |||
| NM-01 | Madrid* | Madigan | 70-28-2 | ||
| NY-19 | Hall* | White | 68-30-2 | ||
| NY-20 | Gillibrand* | Hynes | 67-31-2 | ||
| NY-24 | Arcuri* | Giannoulis | 50-44-6 | ||
| NY-25 | Maffei* | Blagojevich | 48-40-10-2 | Other Nieuked – Stufflebeam | |
| NY-26 | Davis* | Stroger | 55-45 | ||
| NY-29 | Massa* |
IL SEN |
+3 D | 34-24-1 | |
| NC-11 | Shuler* | IL House |
+3 D | 68-50 | |
| OH-01 | Cranley* | ||||
| OH-02 | Wulsin* | ||||
| OH-12 | Shamansky* | ||||
| OH-15 | Kilroy* | ||||
| OH-18 | Space* | ||||
| PA-06 | Murphy* | ||||
| PA-07 | Sestak* | ||||
| PA-08 | Murphy* | ||||
| PA-10 | Carney* | ||||
| TX-22 | Lampson* | ||||
| TX-23 | No Runoff | ||||
| VA-02 | Kellam* | ||||
| WA-08 | Burner* | ||||
| WI-08 | Kagen* | ||||
| WY-AL | Trauner* | +51 | 254-181 |
Testy Testy
I heard this interview with Tom Reynolds (R-NY) head of the RNCC operation on NPR this morning It is still making me giggle.
And Yeah
I’ve seen the Dems House race stuff–screw them too—the IL Dems ought to be ashamed of themselves. They are supposed to know better.
Local VFW Meet National VFW
Apparently, the locals didn’t know anything about the national’s plan to endorse Roskam.
The endorsement also caught Duckworth by surprise. Flanked by more than 20 veterans at a hastily called press conference, Duckworth said she was never contacted by the organization or asked to fill out a questionnaire, which typically happens when organizations decide who they want to endorse.
“I think it’s unfortunate they did this,” said Duckworth, a former Army Black Hawk helicopter pilot who lost both legs when her aircraft was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade.
Members of VFW posts within the district said at Duckworth’s news conference that their posts were never contacted by anyone about endorsing either candidate.
“He didn’t ask our post,” said Bill Bahr, a Vietnam-era veteran and quartermaster at a post in Bloomingdale.
Roskam said the endorsement came at the urging of area VFW members, but he said he did not know who in the group endorsed him or how many local veterans were involved.
Fascinating. The endorsement came from thin air apparently.
Besides the obvious issues of what the hell is the VFW doing not consulting both candidates or asking the locals, the sheer clumsiness is hysterical.
h/t Rich
Rasmussen 44-37-14
H/T Rich again.
Virtually identical to the Survey USA. So natural tightening, but not a lot of movement. Third party candidates almost always lose support from their polling, but that’s also when they are down low around 3-5 %. I’m expect Whitney will lose some probably hitting around 10 with the difference splitting between Topinka and Blagojevich.
He Didn’t Inhale
To a certain point I understand the human response to getting caught in situation that throws your family into chaos, but he bought the meth, but threw it out?
One doesn’t get up one morning and think, I’m going to buy some meth!
Oops
VFW endorsed Roskam. A while ago.
Roskam tried to bill the endorsement as a major boost to his campaign in the final days, but found himself admitting he sat on the endorsement until the end for maximum attention. The VFW representative was unable to give much of a reason for the endorsement or explain how it happened, and Roskam looked stunned at the harsh questioning from reporters.
H/T Rich
Wow. Cubed.
he latest Rothenberg Political Report ratings are out. Here are exclusive excerpts provided to Political Wire:
The Senate: “While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate.”
The House: “Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years.”
Governors: “With Republican seats like Idaho, Alaska, and Nevada in play for state-specific reasons, and Minnesota vulnerable to a Democratic wave, the ceiling for possible Democratic gains is high. We have narrowed our earlier projection from Democratic gains of 6-10 to 7-9.”
45-37-14
New Survey USA for Illinois Governor. A little bit closer to previous polls with her up 3 and him up 1. Whitney stable at 14. This would be consistent with late race tightening, but no fundamental shift in the race. We’ll need another poll to give us an idea if Copley or SUSA is more on target. Both are pretty close to each other even then.