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This is a test post from 
, a fancy photo sharing thing.
Look For Pics Tomorrow
I’m driving the RV for Change around Saint Louis!
Follow the tweets here:
http://twitter.com/strikeforce08
I’m going to try and send some pics to the site, we’ll see how that works out.
Charlie Cook Downgrades IL-13 from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IL-13 is downgraded in what pretty much has to be the last update. (sub required) Again, Biggert should be safe, but I would say if anyone in Illinois is snuck up on, it would be her.
This last update ran through a series of races largely not on the radar that may be those that fall if the wave is big enough.
Daily Dolt: Just Keep This In Mind
Illinois Review on October 23rd
Remember when Obama attempted to rationalize his 20-year association with Rev. Wright by exploiting his grandmother and calling her a racist? Well, she’s back!
This time he’s exploiting her hip surgery. Attempting to put a human face on an his otherwise cold and calculating persona, Obama is rushing to her bedside, feinting concern, and subtly implying that she’s on death’s door – from hip surgery!
I guess Obama “feels her pain”. We may soon be feeling his.
Presidential Race Prediction
Inevitably I’ll be off on this one, but it’s all for fun.
8 % national win for Obama.
I have him at 381 -406 electoral votes depending on Georgia and Arizona. We’ve seen slight movement towards him–really check the aggregators if you insist otherwise). Frankly movement towards him doesn’t have to be overwhelming to end up here–it just needs to follow and then have a turnout advantage that if you look at the McCain and Palin rallies today there is all sorts of evidence for Republicans being not to excited about voting and only a percentage or two not voting makes a huge difference.
US House and Senate Predictions
Senate: Dems pick up a minimum of 8 seats. I’m betting on 10 only because toss ups tend to flip one way in the end (see Charlie Cook’s most recent analysis on this). 7 seems solid to me and then one more is likely to fall given past history. McConnell probably hangs on. Bill O’Reilly’s head explodes though and goes on a rampage.
House: This is hard to say because of the individual dynamics so I’ll say a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 30 seats with more of a likelihood of being around 23 or so. Democrats will lose a seat unlike last cycle with at least Mahoney going down in Florida and Lampson in Texas. Bachman loses, Murtha survives. Madia in Minnesota loses. Judy Baker in MO-9 pulls out a squeaker and wins. Chris Shays loses giving Democrats complete dominance in New England in the House.
Congressional Election Predictions
Seals beats Kirk. Early voting seals a 5 point win which is far higher than anyone would have predicted a month ago.
Halvorson wins handily meaning half of my hometown is represented for the first time in my life (and a lot longer I believe) by a Democrat.
Bean & Foster win.
Manzullo suffers a closer race than expected with high Rockford turnout, but still comes away with a decent win
Roskam wins in a squeaker.
Schock wins and is a pain in my ass for years. Either spends a long time being a self-righteous Adam Putnam clone in mid GOP leadership or is stupid and runs for statewide office where he’s beaten badly. Good shot at being head of the GOP class (small class, but still). Roskam and him fight for being the Illinois Movement conservative in DC and hate each other.
Harper catches a wave that tosses him just barely over the finish line first. Roskam’s district is more vulnerable, but if there is a district ripe for a surprise, it’s IL-13.
Illinois Congressional delegation after Tuesday 14-5 Democratic. In 2002 10-9 Republican.