Presidential Race

Don’t Confuse me with being a fan of Kerry

I tend to like to call him Liveshot–hysterical numbers from post Katrina polling at Zogby that tells of how big of a problem Kerry created for himself in 2004:

In a sign of just how severe the damage to the President’s standing caused by Katrina is, the Zogby America survey finds that, despite his re-election last fall, President Bush would lose to every modern president since Jimmy Carter, the one-term Democrat who left office amid record unpopularity and a presidency rated, at the time, dismally. He would also lose to his own father, who left office amid an economic recession triggered, in part, by a devastating hurricane.

However, in one of the few bright spots for the President, he would still beat Massachusetts Democrat John Kerry, by a narrow, one-point margin.

It’s nice that he decided to fight back. Over two years too late.

My Favorite Ad of the 2008 Cycle

Mark Warner has bought some space. I’m a huge unabashed fan so click on the ad and take a look at Warner’s Foward Together PAC.

While I’m usually afraid of hitting my candidates this early due to many, many years of heartbreak, Warner is such a good candidate, I’m happy to push him this early. Of course, if Obama were to run, my support would be there, but I would strongly advise against such a run. Warner is a natural, and he is, as the site points out, a Map Changer. He also staked his Governorship on improving education funding from a structural perspective and did it in a red state.

Presidential Turnout

In 2000
Bush 50456169
Gore 50996116
Nader 2831066
Total 104283351

2004 to date:
Bush 59117523
Kerry 55557584
Total 114675107

What is interesting is that Democrats picked up Nader’s voters and improved the number of voters. Bush increased his turnout remarkably. This wasn’t a swing voter election, it was a turnout election and evangelicals turned out.

President in Illinois

Of course, if the Illinois Republican Party would just move to the right…..

They could lose every election by ten points or more. Keep it up gang!

Bush, George (i) Rep 2,313,415 44.73
Kerry, John Dem 2,826,757 54.65
Badnarik, Michael Lib 31,863 .62

Kerry underperformed by three from my projections.

The lesson here is I ought to only project Illinois races. I had Karmeier by 8 and he won by 10 points.

Shitty Night

Not looking good for Kerry. New Mexico is probably toast and unless I’m wrong about Ohio, welcome to four more years. It’s probably a booby prize of a Presidency, but that’s not much of a conciliation.

The Senate was more predictable from 2 years out than it was from one week out and the House will be rougly even with maybe a pick-up of one or two or maybe even.