Illinois Senate

Survey USA Obama Keyes

Given the last poll had Obama at 64 this is a slight increase in Obama’s lead though right at the MoE

10/7/2004
Obama (D) 68%
Keyes (R) 23%
Other/Undecided 10%
Data Collected 10/4/04 – 10/6/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 636 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis

Unless undecideds break at better than 4-1, Obama looks to break 70. Keyes seems unlikely to break 30, I’d put him between 20-25 for the final–his likely explosions at the debates will create a new wave of bad press if his 2000 and 1996 Presidential runs are any indicator.

Rasmussen Obama-Keyes Poll

44 Point difference with the lowest Obama number yet at 64%, but Keyes at 20%.

Just 46% of Republicans in the state plan to vote for their own party’s nominee. Eight percent (8%) of Republicans say they will not cast a vote in the Senate race.

Brutal numbers for Keyes:

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters describe the rising Democratic star as liberal while 34% describe him as mainstream.

For Keyes, 33% have a favorable opinion. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say he is an extremist and another 14% describe him as divisive. Just 7% say Keyes is in the political mainstream.

Overall, 59% of Illinois voters have an unfavorable opinion of Keyes including 39% who say they have a “very” unfavorable opinion of him.

Taken for the Daily Southtown

The poll was conducted Monday evening by Rasmussen Reports. It surveyed 500 likely voters statewide; 154 identified themselves as Republicans and 211 identified themselves as Democrats.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percent with a higher margin of error for numbers singling out how Democrats or Republicans replied in the survey.

Sex Education for Kindergartners?

Of the many carnards that Alan Keyes has tried to use during this race, the one that disturbed me most was his rant that no sex education for Kindergartners is appropriate (video to come–this was in Collinsville). He then went on a rant about how this showed some moral depravity. Barack reminded me of it today in a story where he explains the issue of storks versus birth which is a decent example.

But there is a far more serious side to this–relevant sex education at that age also includes information about how to deal with good and bad touches. IOW, how to teach children to appropriately deal with people who want to touch them in personal places. AKA child molestation. This can be an important defense against child sexual abuse and is not in any way promoting sex-in fact it does the opposite–it can protect children from abuse.

I have little use for demagoguing on this issue. Having dealt with kids who have been abused a little, the notion of boundaries is one of the most difficult issues with which those kids deal. I am not naive enough to think that such education is enough to stop sexual abuse of children, but it can be an important component of reducing it.

If someone is reading this at the Obama campaign–this might be a good way to address the issue.

Had to Sleep on This One

From the inbox I was alerted to Maya Keyes’ girlfriend complaining about the coverage and the blogs that broke the story in particular. While credit to the find goes to Modern Vertebrate and then Chillinois, I certainly don’t deny my choice in being a relatively early poster on the story and I’d still do that.

But what I find in comments at Chillinois adds to the story:

Of course, there are still many religious-based colleges where antigay policies are still very much in effect. One such school, Messiah College in Grantham, Pa., was founded by the evangelical Brethren in Christ. Bria Grace, 19, an out lesbian sophomore at Messiah, says the school makes no secret of its antigay stance. ?If you are found to be in a gay or lesbian relationship, you must seek counseling,? she says. ?You have to recognize that what you did was wrong.?

Now, does that absolve me of any decisions? What if Bria Grace hadn’t been out? As a note, I wouldn’t mention her name other than it is in a news article. Thinking back, I may well have blurred a picture if I had put it up myself, but that is in retrospect.

Given the situation, I think appearing in an article in the Advocate takes away any claim to privacy on that specific issue. That doesn’t answer the abstract issue of what about those who have no real role in the story other than being, for a better phrase, collateral damage.

It would be truly unfortunate. But I think that is the case in many stories that are pursued. Gary Hart’s wife was certainly an innocent bystander, but when Gary Hart challenged the press, it was a legitimate story. Jack Ryan’s son faces some embarrasment as he grows older. But ultimately, the responsibility for those misfortunes rest on those taking the actions. Jack Ryan covered up his life, lied to the public and the party. The big deal was the lying, with conduct that was strange—Jack tried to hide public documents. Bria Grace is a victim of her mother, but ultimately, that may or may not have occurred in the context of the information being highlighted in discussing the views of a man who seems to suggest that Grace’s mother is correct in her behavior and upbraids others for their tolerance of gay and lesbian children and wants to be the next US Senator from Illinois.

As we know now, Alan Keyes is a joke, but unfortunately, Alan Keyes is only a joke because he is so bizarre in his behavior. Patrick O’Malley wants to be the next Governor of Illinois and is just as reactionary as Keyes, but slightly more palatable because of his demeanor.

I won’t out people on this blog and I’ll try and avoid ‘incidentally’ outing people in circumstances like this. But the second category is impossible to avoid in some circumstances.

Now, let me chide the Illinois press for one moment. Alan Keyes has all of a sudden found his family off limits when he didn’t find Dick Cheney’s family off limits. But let’s not forget, Alan Keyes thought John McCain’s and George Bush’s daughters were not off limits in 2000

In this election cycle, candidates who oppose abortion are being asked how they would respond if their teen-age daughters got pregnant. McCain’s initial answer was that his 15-year-old would make the “final decision.” But upon more thought, he said it would be a “family decision.” But this response reveals, as Keyes observed, that even someone with a 20-year pro-life voting record may not really embrace the position he propounds.

A truly pro-life candidate would respond as follows: “If, G-d forbid, my daughter were to become pregnant, we would let her know that we were disappointed in her (unless, of course, the pregnancy were the result of rape). We would also tell her that we will protect, love and support her throughout her pregnancy, and would expect that when the child is born, we will, as a family, make an adoption plan for the baby.”

I admit there’s deep, deep irony in the above, but he felt the personal situations of the McCain and Bush families were relevant. Why isn’t the Keyes’ family relevant?

I feel bad that Maya Keyes is undergoing a lot of stress and that her friends may as well. But I’ll be damned if I’ll sit by and let that hypocritical bastard Alan Keyes exploit the politics of personal destruction and then whine about it when the same treatment is given to him.

He’s toxic to politics and he was brought in to be toxic to Barack Obama. But when that toxicity hits him, he wants to run away. Tough shit.

“It’s not clear to me that I want Alan Keyes telling me what it means to be a Christian,” Obama said.

Not clear? It’s very clear I don’t want Keyes telling me what it is to be a Christian.

Ken Redfield makes one mistake though:

“Our politics tend to be pretty pragmatic,” said Kent Redfield, political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “We’d rather fight about roads and bridges . . . than (the issue of) whether we should have gay marriage.”

No, we want to fight over who builds roads and bridges.

Paging Eric Zorn

Admittedly, most Republicans try to pretend he doesn’t exist, but there is someone really pushing for a draft.

Given Keyes didn’t serve and he says ‘that citizenship is not just a lazy person’s business,’ one mighth think he was hypocritical, but no, he left an out–the service could be diplomatic. Not, you know, working in poor communities organizing–diplomatic.

One student asked Keyes why he doesn’t spend more time talking about his views on health care and the economy in addition to abortion and gay rights. Keyes, who spent virtually his entire 20-minute speech talking about abortion, blamed the biased and “scandal-mongering” media for not reporting his views on those topics.

It helps to not right the material for the press.