1. Obama. Polls and buzz and momentum. Good place to be one week out. Needs to ensure the turnout stays high. From comments Trib has him at 62% in the A-A community. Given black voters are late deciders even with an African-American in the race, that probably breaks for him even better. Some inroads by Hull with Rush, but that is at the margins. And his supporters even buy time on ArchPundit! See to the right!
2. Hynes. Number 2 in the polls, but desperately needs to make inroads downstate and have good turnout. Biggest problem–just not as passionate of a following. Read comments on the cattle call comment period for good takes on where he needs turnout especially. Perhaps hamstrung by playing it too cute with social conservatives down south. That wing of the Democratic Party is dying while South Chicago is being transformed demographically meaning that tension will be come less and less. Another thing to note is that Lane Evans operation is behind Obama. That won’t help along the southern edges of the Illinois River where Lane is new, but in the Quad Cities and even in Lane’s new territory in Decatur, that should marginally help Obama and hurt Hynes where Labor is the Democratic Party.
3. Hull. Pretty much Glenn Brown and I have agreed on most of these cattle calls, but here I part with him. We have him in the same position, but I think he is rebounding a bit, while Glenn thinks he is falling. If he falls, Hynes gets stronger downstate where he has commercials. If he rises, Hynes gets weaker. Hull should be increasing slightly for the rest of the campaign. The question is whether it will be enough to get into a turnout contest on election day. If it is, he has a reasonable shot. The problem appears to be an undercurrent of the remaining undecideds think several candidates are good, but the best news is for Obama where they are slightly trending. Hull needs something to intervene. THe problem being the press is in love with Obama (or not a problem if you are a Obama supporter).
4. Pappas. Probably maintain where she is at. Unless the campaign commercials have more of an effect than I’d predict she is probably stuck in fourth. As a note, they are supposed to be on the air in St. Louis, but I haven’t seen them yet–of course, I’m probably not the target audience. I think the campaign won’t hurt her as much as it could. The debate performances were a problem, but I think this race has been hard to break out of and that will be the media consensus. Both Chico and her are decent candidates, but shut out of the media by Hynes, Obama and the Hull media explosion. The best quotes from her were about the Hull media explosion.
5. Chico. Perhaps supporting Guitierrez’s opponent wasn’t so smart. Interesting to see how he does in Latino wards.
6. Skinner. There is this new liberal radio network….
7. Washington. Web site is back up. Don’t know why.
3.
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