Republicans Have Parkinsons Too

ArchPundit August 13, 2004 23 Comments

While no one expected Andrea Zinga to get close to the uber gerrymandered 17th, she has shown herself to have no shame in a losing effort.

“People who are on the medications he is on may have trouble with judgment, which can be worsened by excitement or stress,” she said in an interview. “It concerns me and I think voters should be aware of it.”

Even nastier:

Zinga, for her part, makes a point of reminding voters that Evans would have medical insurance coverage, even if he were voted out of office.

“I don’t think they want to throw someone out, just because he’s had the (misfortune) of being sick,” she said. “It’s important to tell them that he’ll be cared for.”

Bean – Crane Debate

ArchPundit August 11, 2004 No Comments

It’s hard to characterize the debate from a news story, but two things stuck out:

1) Bean biffed the O’Hare question which matters in that area of Cook–bad debate prep on the campaigns behalf, though that can be fixed. The reason it matters is that she is running as the intouch person and that takes away from that aura of competence that is key.

2) Crane read from his notes during his opening and closing which many people take as rudeness–being unprepared to discuss the reasons for your candidacy.

Meanwhile, Crane, a former university professor, read his opening and closing comments dispassionately and monotone, rarely glancing at the audience.

Weller-Renner Poll

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 No Comments

Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 7/13-14; 400 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.9% (polling memo, 7/22). Tested Rep. Jerry Weller (R-11) and McLean Co Board member Tari Renner (D).

General Election Matchup

Weller 60%
Renner 26 Fav/Unfav
52%/12%
7 /2

Two numbers stick out–Weller is over 50 in favorability, but just barely–but unfavorable numbers are very low. That is a problem. More of a prolem is that nearly no one knows who Tari is.

Donate to help out with that problem–to the right and down.

Crane Gets E-Mail

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 1 Comment

From the inbox:

Dear Constituent:
As your representative in Congress, I am requesting your permission to send you a few email updates every month. These communications will focus on the important issues facing Congress today.

The Internet has provided us an opportunity to speak to you directly and brings you a new way to be heard.

If you do not wish to have me contact you via email or if you believe you have received this message in error, please click the link below and your name will be permanently deleted from the email list.

Sincerely,
Phil Crane
Member of Congress

Apparently, the guy didn’t have an e-mail address until recently.

Question out there–is mass e-mail regulated like Franking?

“Unless he has suffered some type of brain shock that has damaged him permanently.”

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 No Comments

OK, so sometimes the candidate making news is bad too. On the 27th, The Northwest Herald ran a follow-up on the race being a tough one. Crane responds to the notion that Republicans might be supporting Bean:

“I can’t imagine some Republican doing that,” Crane said. “Unless he has suffered some type of brain shock that has damaged him permanently.”

I’m not even sure that is the worst quote:

rane, 72, said he has no plans to retire any time soon.

There is too much work on trade and taxes left to be done, he said. Crane often introduces legislation that would eliminate all federal taxes except a 10 percent income tax.

Crane said he offers the legislation in an attempt to make colleagues think about the issue.

“You just keep the faith and fight the fight, but remember that the war is eternal,” Crane said.

Make colleagues think about the issue?

I’m trying to think of a better quote to illustrate being out of touch with the voters and it isn’t coming to me. For good reason. As a younger guy Crane was probably personable enough to pull off the ideologue bit, but in a race like this with many, many new voters, he’s playing right into Bean’s strengths.

Crane Round-Up

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 No Comments

The bad thing about having a credible challenger is that the other Party figures it out if you are too successful. The good news is that money doesn’t organize and if you don’t have an ground plan and mail strategy in place by now, you’ll be doing a lot of improvising without a good hand on how to use your resources best.

The Northwest Herald picks up on the increased fundraising by Crane and the cross party support Bean is getting.

Several have complained that Crane is out of touch and tries to stand on decades-old achievements.

Herman said the Bean campaign is seeing some Republican support. A few Republican committeemen have contributed to the campaign, Herman said, although their donations are less than the $200 reporting threshold.

“A fourth of our volunteers [say they are] Republicans,” Herman said.

Crane’s Troubles in the UPI

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 No Comments

I don’t have a permalink, but I had an article forwarded to me:

Concerns that Rep. Phil Crane, R-Ill., may have trouble in the upcoming election are being dismissed as “overblown” by some folks close to him.

The Democrats are saying that Crane, currently the longest-serving member of the House GOP Conference, has become “a lobbyist-dependent Washington insider.”

The “anxiety began to bubble over in June,” the Chicago Tribune reported, when GOP Rep. Ray LaHood said in an interview that Crane could be the election’s “November surprise.”

“The problem is he really just has not worked (his district) that well. He hasn’t paid attention to it,” said LaHood, who has since backed from his observation. Crane, meanwhile, is touting his frequent visits to the district over the last three months and his seniority as chairman of the House’s Trade Subcommittee.

A recent poll conducted for his opponent, Democrat businesswoman Melissa Bean, showed that 36 percent of voters in the district “are inclined” to re-elect Crane, but one prominent business lobbyists who is following the race closely says people should not be concerned. “The district is solidly GOP. For Bean to win it would require a convergence of anomalies that would be biblical in scope.”

“Crane is prepared for a fight,” he said, while “the rest of the Illinois GOP delegation are pouring a lot of resources into the race.”

(That’s Politics! looks at the inner workings of the American political process and is written by UPI’s Peter Roff, a 20-year veteran of the Washington scene.)

=======

I, of course, hope that is the attitude, but I’d say looking at the demographics, the likely low turnout in the District, and the money Bean is raising, this is going to be a very hot race. One thing to consider is that a challenger who can raise enough money can challenge and Bean is doing that and that poll will pull in the DCCC. Especially with no TV (just useless in such a market) and no record to run against with Bean, Crane is going to have a really hard time framing the debate in terms beneficial to him. He has to have a strong turnout in his District, and there is little evidence he can produce that anymore.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Netroots and the DCCC

ArchPundit July 29, 2004 1 Comment

Kos has an interesting post up on the DCCC’s methods of weeding out credible candidates. Kos puts it as more opposed to each other than I think they may be–though I wasn’t involved in the discussions, I’m not sure the difference can’t be bridged.

Since there is little way to weed out candidates who won’t work hard except fund raising, it is almost always the tool decide where to direct resources. This works generally for several reasons. First, it shows someone is working hard. Lazy candidates aren’t going to make it so weed them out by how much money they can raise. With a good personal friend running I can tell you how brutal the whole dialing for dollars deal is. Kos puts the number at 8 hours, but that just includes calls and not followups plus all of the events you have to attend. And if you write thanks yous that open up the wallets the second time, its even more brutal.

Second, it tells you that someone has some kind of support out there. Not all candidates are appealling and as a general rule, the appealing ones can raise cash if they work hard.

I’m not worried about the netroots boosting marginal candidates too much, because even if you can raise an amount on-line, the only way it’ll continue is if big donors open up. Kos makes this point so maybe I’m more with him, but the concern isn’t misplaced, it just assumes that raising cash is easy on the net.

You’ll notice when I talk about Democratic challengers in Illinois, only three are mentioned. It isn’t that I don’t like the others–Tim Bagwell in the 19th is great, but he can’t raise any cash and he isn’t going to be able to get his message out without it. Bean has fantastic numbers given her position. Renner is doing decently, but needs to pick up, and Cegelis needs to leverage her relative web success with big donors now. But they all show promise. Other candidates haven’t been able to raise that money and if they can’t charm money out of someone, I don’t know how they are going to charm votes out of more people.

The DCCC is right about needing to focus on candidates who are strong and fundraising is the key measure available. On the other side, they shouldn’t be reluctant about the net roots because surprises happen and the net is only an entry way to being taken seriously. You still have to work hard to get to the next level.

Crane’s Delusional

ArchPundit July 25, 2004 1 Comment

The Trib picks up the hard race story today.

Crane, the original ideological puritan on small government is actually running on bring back money to the District.

He also touts his seniority and conservative credentials, saying that the Democratic nominee, Barrington businesswoman Melissa Bean, 42, would vote with her party and have little clout to bring federal funds home to Illinois.

Sure, so when is he going to start? He’s a bit late after 30 years to decide he needs to take care of the District.

Stunning Bean Poll

ArchPundit July 22, 2004 2 Comments

So stunning Lynn Sweet even breaks her usual rule of avoiding writing about them:

Bean has significant potential. The voters have an open mind. About 46 percent would consider someone else or were open to replacing Crane.

Some other gleanings:

*Some 35 percent agreed that Crane has done a good job in Congress and deserves to be elected again; contrast that to 51 percent who said that Crane has been a congressman for too long and it is time to give someone else a chance.

*Almost half had no opinion when asked a variety of questions about things they liked or disliked about Crane. That suggests, to Bean’s potential advantage, that Crane is not on voters’ radar.

*Some 47 percent said Crane worked hard for the district; the same number said his best years are behind him.

Smart move to the campaign to give Sweet the full results. Very smart. These results show a great potential for a win by Bean. Most importantly, it demonstrates that LaHood, while he may regret saying it, was right. Crane hasn’t been watching over his District and with the rapid population growth and shifts, he’s a non-entity and being as conservative as he is, he’s a great target for a moderate Democrat.

A 35% approval rating for an incumbent is a huge problem. Anything below 50 is a bad sign. Over 50% think it is time for someone else.