CD 18 Cattle Call Both Parties
ArchPundit
Who is in? Given the history of this District one can only hope Diane Liesman doesn’t try and make another CoS handover.
What’s the Bush-Kerry # in this district?
Illinois Congressional Races
CD 6 GOP Cattle Call
Assuming Hyde retires…..
Who is going to run?
Anyone challenge Cegelis in the primary?
And what was the Bush-Kerry in this District? I think Kerry got 46%
CD 8 GOP Cattle Call
Who is going to take on Bean? Let’s hear it out there. Can the GOP shoot themselves in the foot in this race?
And for those who have this handy—what was Bush-Kerry in 2004 in the District?
Is Bean the Next Flanagan?
No. Will she have a tough reelection race? Absolutely. Will she lose? Maybe.
Comparisons to Mike Flanagan who held the 5th CD seat between Rosty and the Blagorgeous are rather poor though. To start with Flanagan wasn’t even running a serious campaign before the last coupe weeks when some polling turned up an opportunity. Bean ran in a targeted race for a second time putting down some serious effort to get to know the residents and the institutions of the 8th CD. Flanagan started with nothing, but a protest vote of Rosty, Bean starts with two grassroots campaigns and a ton of voter contact.
Further demographics are different. Bean faces a Republican district, but not one that is overwhelmingly so. I don’t have the 2004 numbers yet for the CDs, but for 2000, the Gore Bush numbers in the current 5th were 66-34 Gore. In the 8th the numbers for Gore Bush were 56-42 and I think that area trended just a tad more Democratic meaning probably around 55-45. A five point swing isn’t easy, but it’s also not a 2-1 disadvantage as Flanagan faced.
It’ll be a top tier race by both the DCCC and the RNCC too, but a President in the second term in the off year is weakest and the amazing level of evangelical voters are unlikely to appear while Dems are still highly motivated and angry.
On top of that, Bean will be able to raise much more money and the Republicans will likely have a divisive primary. Why? Because that’s what Republicans do in Illinois these days.
Good Notes in Congressional Races
Cegelis came within 10 of Hyde. Two things would be needed here–probably a slightly more moderate candidate and money. Money. Money. Money. It hit close to my prediction.
Renner, well, not so good of a showing and I was completely off on the prediction.
Bean did a great job and after a week or so thinking about her office needs to start running for 2006. I was close on the prediction.
Bean Gives Her Victory Speech!
Crane goes down!
Cegelis IV
Hyde, Henry (i) Rep 93,838 56.07
Cegelis, Christine Dem 73,510 43.93
394 of 528
Bean VII
Melissa Bean 51.9%
Democratic Challenger (131280 votes) Phil Crane 48.1%
Republican Incumbent (121738 votes) Chuck Kelecic 0%
Libertarian Challenger (0 votes) Precincts Reporting: 94%
Cegelis III
Hyde, Henry (i) Rep 92,452 56.15
Cegelis, Christine Dem 72,200 43.85
388 of 528
Renner III
Weller, Jerry (i) Rep 51,828 55.97
Renner, Tari Dem 40,766 44.03
201 of 585