Call It A Comeback
What I consider the key number for a primary challenge isn’t that bad for Blagojevich. Sixty-four percent of Democratic voters think he is doing an excellent or good job. Certainly, you want it stronger and those aren’t great numbers within your own party for a general election, but in a primary, that’s very tough to beat especially with all of the institutional support in the corner of the incumbent.
One of the more interesting things about issue polling versus candidate polling is how a candidate can affect the policy position of respondents. Nationally, a rule to require pharmacies to fill birth control prescriptions was around 80%. The support in Illinois in terms of Blagojevich issuing such an order, the overall approval of the move is 62%, 27% disapprove and 11% are unsure.
I’d still want to be on Blagojevich’s side on this issue because women and independents are in favor of the rule and the only key group opposed is Republicans who aren’t voting for him anyway. Even then, Republicans only oppose it with a plurality of 49%.
His numbers still suck, but the Governor is sucking less than he was in middle and late 2005,
42% Approval
but the problem still is
53% Disapproval
Good signs for him are that his African-American and Latino ratings are doing better both hitting 70% approval.
Bad news for Eisendrath, 62% approval amongst Democrats—that’s much better than Bob Holden was doing in Missouri when Claire McCaskill beat him. That isn’t necessarily good news for Blagojevich in the general, but it is something to build upon. His independent numbers are in the crapper with 31% approval. Partisan break down is Republican 25%, Democrat 43%, Independent 31%.
A bit low on the Republicans, though with the serious problems the party has, regular Republican voters might be claiming independent status.
What is fascinating to me is the comparison to Michigan–Michigan is less blue than Illinois, but Granholm has been pretty consistently around Blagojevich’s numbers for the last several months. Interestingly, she is considered a fairly safe bet for reelection even with crappy approval ratings. Some of that is she’s probably facing a bad Republican candidate, but the parallels are interesting for those who claim Blagojevich is toast.
I have many, many criticisms of the current Governor, his situation isn’t as dire as many predict. Certainly Topinka offers a particular challenge to him both on gender and choice. However, the rest of the Republican field is weak in a general election contest.
His numbers do make him vulnerable because they are bad for a sitting Governor, but the similar tracking with Michigan has to make one wonder if the larger political and economic climate in states that had heavy manufacturing as an important part of the economy aren’t facing similar challenges. While those of us who follow politics obsessively tend to try and pinpoint moves to particular instances, most voters don’t follow that closely what the Governor does from day to day. He is vulnerable, but his situation isn’t as dire as many like to think.
It’s on-line so who knows how accurate it is, though they do try to sample underrepresented groups.
Blagojevich: 39.7
Topinka: 38.7
+/- 2.9%
Blagojevich: 45.7%
Brady: 36.1%
I assume the Oberweis numbers are in the full pdf which I don’t have–if you do, I’d appreciate it if you could pass it along.
Can he do it?
UPDATE: Damn, he did it or pretty close.
Blagojevich at 41% approval/53% disapproval.
Those numbers are bad, but before everyone jumps up and down and says he can’t win, Granholm has slightly higher disapproval numbers and is considered a likely candidate for reelection.
Yes, very vulnerable.
No, not a sure thing to beat.
His biggest problem is that the longer he stays above 50% disapproval, the harder it is to reduce those numbers.
Amongst Democratic voters he has a 55% approval rating which is pretty damn low. His best numbers ideologically come from self-described moderates meaning the more liberal base is open to a challenge, though with his SEUI support, I’d still say he’s the prohibitive favorite to be renominated.
SYNOPSIS
The FY04 Report contained 24 findings and recommendations. We determined, as of September 16, 2005, that the Department had:
? Implemented 6 (25%) of the recommendations;
? Partially implemented 4 (17%) of the recommendations;
? Not implemented 11 (46%) of the recommendations; and
? Due to the nature and timing of the required tests, the status of the remaining 3 (12%) recommendations could not be determined at this time. The status of those findings will be reported in the Department’s Financial Audit and Compliance Examination for the year ended June 30, 2005.
Specific matters noted by the auditors are detailed on the following pages.
On the good side, no one’s going to be attacking Holland anytime soon.
I will link to the archive when it’s up
But wait for it….
The Governor was late.
First, Good Rod has showed up and he’s got skillz when he’s talking on his own and not programmed. Give him a speech and I want to drill my eardrums out.
All Kids is both good politics and policy. It’s a creation of Good Rod and it’s the kind of thing that makes me feel guilty when I’m giving him hell. Certainly details will have to be worked out, but if you want to give kids a chance to succeed they need health care from reducing asthma prevalence to identifying high levels of lead early on to reduce the damage.
Regardless of his efforts to change the subject though, he still has an underlying problem he has not addressed that will be a drag on any effort at reelection. The ethics stench around him must be addressed and not simply ignored or brushed off as something that happens to everyone. When you ran on changing business as usual, it doesn’t work and the number of problems that keep cropping up is absurd.
Simply pushing for campaign finance reform doesn’t do enough. It needs to be specfiic distancing from those close to him who have been caught up in these problems. In particular, taking Tony Rezko to task should be a no brainer. Not only is Rezko involved in all sorts of influence peddling, he’s taking taxpayers for a ride while denying minority contractors a fair shot. This is a no brainer to move away from the clown and use him as a lesson learned to the public. The truth is that money and politics makes for just these sorts of ties and even the best intentioned (which Blagojevich isn’t) can be caught up in such scandals.
Reconnecting with that outrage and the outrage to grow as more political scandals hit the papers for the next year or so is essential to making a successful reelection run. As of September, Blagojevich was less popular than George Bush in a reliably blue leaning state–simply putting new programs out there isn’t going to do it.
Or the Governor can just hope the Republicans nominate Oberweis.
He’ll be talking about his plan for universal health care for children.
You can listen in online.
ArchPundit