Make or Break for Judy

ArchPundit October 27, 2006 5 Comments

The Levine hearing appears to be the make or break moment for Judy. Either the Levine evidence leads directly to the Governor or it leads to Chris Kelly. To Kelly, it’s more of the same to the average voter. To the Governor, she’s probably alive again.

Just to clarify a poorly written post the other day–I compared MSI to the current scandal and that’s correct in one sense. The allegations are relatively similar and as close to the Governor. There is a huge difference though in that we know there are several investigations going on regarding the Blagojevich adminstration–most notably the hiring scandals that have been turned over to the US Attorney as well.

My point of comparison is not that Rod is no worse than Edgar, it’s that the public pays limited attention to politics and what’s primarily out in the press, especially the television press where most get their information is the Rezko stuff. To most voters then this isn’t a huge deal, but more of the same.

Top that off with a really effective ad campaign making Judy look like she isn’t a saint (she isn’t, but relative to Rod, pretty close) and is out of touch with the average Illinois voter and Rod is rolling to victory barring some bombshell today. I don’t have to like it. I don’t. I don’t have to like that the public doesn’t pay more attention. I don’t. I just recognize what’s going on and while it depresses me, that’s part of being in the reality based community.

BTW, catch Rich’s column today that gives a great illustration of how effective the Blagojevich campaign has been with it’s ads attacking Judy.

And most of this was written before I even read that column so the similarity isn’t due to me copying Rich as much as a similar conclusion about the Levine hearing.

What the hell happened to Illinois Republicans?

ArchPundit October 25, 2006 4 Comments

If it isn’t entirely clear by now, if I lived in Illinois I wouldn’t vote for Rod Blagojevich or Rich Whitney. And I wouldn’t be entirely happy about my vote for Governor. That said, sweet Jesus this is one of the worst campaign cycles I’ve ever observed. The incumbent doesn’t have just one investigation such as Operation Safe Roads circling around him, but many. One was originally run by Lisa Madigan which she handed over to the feds.

It’s a sign of very bad things to come for the idiot, and yes that’s the term even though I find her personally humorous, since she can’t even make hay out of it.

JBT is one of the last Republicans I can imagine supporting. After her I expect a series of right wing loons running because they are offended by THE GAY!, just as her primary primary opponent attempted and then when that wasn’t enough, discovered THE BROWN GUY.

That said, no one should vote for her. They shouldn’t vote for her opponents either. Whitney should be an attractive opponent on the left that allows one to hold to their principles while sending the mainstream candidate down to defeat. Instead, he decided John Kass and the spotted owl were more important.

Rod, well, shit. He’s lying his fucking ass off. It’s really an admirable attempt. He lies better than most. Clinton lied better, but about smaller things. Okay, that’s assuming a lot about both of their personal business that I don’t care to think about.

The sad public reality is that Rod’s scandal, as of now, isn’t much worse than the Edgar MSI scandal. Seriously, look it up. The average Joe Public is probably responding to a deep seated cynicysm that says most Illinois pols have friends they can’t trust. It’s not a bad interpretation since it’s generally true. The problem is that the scandal isn’t in isolation.

With at lesat several other investigations ongoing, the relative problem for Rod is far greater, but voters have other things to which to pay attention and Rod is probably going to be reelected even though Whitney will probably have one of the best showings for an independent candidate.

What about Thompson?

ArchPundit October 25, 2006 1 Comment

Oh, the hilarious nature of Illinois politics
For Immediate Release.

Contact: Transition Team Arch

Archpundit to Announce Transition Team

Beloved Leader to Guide Blogger in New Role as Supreme Leader of the World

St. Louis, IL?Blogger Archpundit announced today that he has chosen Santa Claus a respected, worldwide leader to lead his transition team after being elected Supreme Leader of the World.

The popular local blogger chose Jolly Ole St. Nick after much deliberation and review of the nearly 1,000 other fictional characters available for such an important fantasy.

?Though this is only a dream, I feel like I need to be prepared for such a life changing experience,? said Archpundit today in front of the St. Louis Arch.

Santa Claus, beloved by children and adults alike, was honored to accept such a position.

?I?ve spent my life granting wishes, and this is something I would be happy to do for Archpundit. Clearly, he recognizes the new reality of these times because if Judy Baar Topinka is preparing to lead the State of Illinois, he should be preparing for this.?

Topinka Off the Air for the Weekend

ArchPundit October 21, 2006 No Comments

Wow.

IL: According to Hotline sources, Treas. Judy Baar Topinka’s campaign is off the air this weekend, less than three weeks before election day. The earliest she could go back on the air is Monday afternoon at this point. Will she go on that soon or is she saving money for the last week?

Saving money for the last week seem to the euphamistic way of saying, screwed.

UPDATE: Rich has more–it’s a rational reason to go off the air for the weekend, but not much more hopeful for them given the hole they are in.

Someone’s Medication Needs to Be Adjusted

ArchPundit October 20, 2006 6 Comments

Sun-Times:

Our experience with Blagojevich prompts us to take him at his word.

This is the guy the House Democrats have sign Memorandums of Understandings before they’ll pass budgets.

New Duckworth Ad

ArchPundit October 18, 2006 1 Comment

And Trib Endorses

Let’s Say You Have an Area of Illinois in Which Bush is near 50 % favorability

ArchPundit October 17, 2006 No Comments

Before the election, I’d say it’s a safe bet that Judy should be running ahead of him there, or we had entered the Twilight Zone.

What if I were to tell you that she is running behind in favorability to George Bush in one such area by nearly 20 points? Mind you, Bush is between 30% and 35% favorability in most polls I’ve seen in Illinois.

No, you aren’t getting any more details, but the polling is legit.

You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension – a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You’re moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. You’ve just crossed over into the Twilight Zone.

Early Voting Info

ArchPundit October 16, 2006 No Comments

Blagojevich has it for the entire state–great resource

Pre Rezko, but Wow

ArchPundit October 16, 2006 No Comments

Judy’s numbers are crap (and so are the Governor’s, but they should be).

49% disapproval for Judy compared to 43% for Blagojevich

The survey showed Blagojevich with the support of 43 percent of the voters polled, while Topinka had 29 percent and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had 9 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided, and 2 percent offered choices for governor not among the names appearing on the Nov. 7 ballot.

Keyesland–and she’s not a wingnut!

I’m taking on the conventional wisdom related to Rezko–I don’t think he’ll matter:

A total of 64 percent say he has failed to keep a key campaign pledge that helped get him elected four years ago?to end corrupt “business as usual” in the Statehouse. Asked to compare the current level of corruption to that of previous administrations, 60 percent of voters said it is the same.

I’m not sure with that cynical of a political environment and high unfavorables for Judy that this is even going to matter. I’m not dismissing the importance of the scandal, I just think voters tend to discount scandals during a campaign.

One of the arguments has been that Blagojevich will depress turnout for Democrats. The problem with such a claim is that Judy is even more unpopular with her base

Among Republicans, fewer than half?47 percent?say they have a favorable view of Topinka, who has held statewide office for a dozen years and was a state legislator from suburban Cook County before that.

While Blagojevich is a drag on the ticket, Judy is a bigger drag on the ticket. Add to it poor ratings of George Bush and anger at the Republican Congress and I don’t see why marginal voters who are conservative will even bother in Illinois.

Perhaps I’m wrong and Rezko will have a dramatic impact, but I think once the mud is this think, it’s pretty hard to make it thicker.

Not Mutually Exclusive

ArchPundit October 16, 2006 No Comments

Rich gives us four scenarios related to the Governor’s Ostrich strategy regarding Rezko and Kelly,

Our options here are: 1) Blagojevich knows about the corruption and is a very good liar; 2) The governor isn’t curious enough to delve deeper than a headline and seriously question his friends; 3) He is utterly incapable of trusting any information that contradicts his own beliefs; or 4) U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is completely wrong, even though he has yet to lose a corruption case.

I see three possibilities that might all be true at the same time. Though one is implausible.