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Neal’s Poll Analysis Sun-Times Columnist

ArchPundit October 30, 2002 No Comments

Neal’s Poll Analysis

Sun-Times Columnist Steve Neal points out that the polls are consistently supporting a large Blagojevich lead. Far from the inane analysis yesterday insisting that J-Ry has momentum, he is stuck at around 40% or below. Worse, he is barely breaking 50 in the collar counties and below 50 downstate. Some of that will come home at the end, but 6 days out he should be around 60 in both areas. Worse, he is off-message and whining about tactics instead of what the hell he is going to do. His commercials breaking in St. Louis are finally doing what he should have done 3 months ago–establish J-Ry as his own person. By this strategy he might just close the gap sometime in 2004.

Coming Next: Indictment Season for

ArchPundit October 30, 2002 No Comments

Coming Next: Indictment Season for the ICFST

Bad, bad, bad news for the Governor and the ICFST. The finger in the dyke was just pulled. This guy probably has dirt gone through a C-14 half life.

Daniels stepping down to focus on his soon to be indictment and this may bring G-Ry down after leaving office. I suppose the R’s will have to stop complaining about Dan Walker then.

Caught up in work Will

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

Caught up in work

Will Blog in the evening of the 29th–lots of stuff including endorsements and maybe predictions. Missouri endorsements are close to being done at the other site.

A New Level Of Stupidty

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

A New Level Of Stupidty

The Post-Dispatch compares Waco to the Russian Hostage situation. The first hint that this is a stupid comparison is that there were no hostages being executed in Waco. The second, might be that there were hostages at all. The third might be that there is a difference between serving a warrant and trying to rescue hostages. The sheer number of differences is so vast, I’ll just stop now.

Semantic Vandalism continued Some of

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

Semantic Vandalism continued

Some of the more hysterical bloggers are calling Muhammed a terrorist and suggesting that the supersecret treehouse cool people connect the dots. Maybe so, but before applying this label could someone point out what his political message was? Until one can do that it would seem that asking for $10 Million was a motivation unto itself.

I’ve connected the available dots so far and I’m seeing a home grown loon. Now, it could be more, but why don’t we let the evidence that comes out determine our conclusions? Or are the dots only seen in the supersecrettreehouse black light?

By the way, in the sniper case I was wrong when I made a crack about it being a kooky white guy. My mistake. If there turns out to be a terrorist connection I will gladly post a retraction for a week straight.

Rule #5. Don’t mistake

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

Rule #5. Don’t mistake the “natural tightening” that occurs in the polls at the end of most races in competitive states for a true surge by the trailing candidate.

The Note explained this rule and the Chicago Tribune and the Political Wire need to follow it. J-Ry is @ 37% and not closing. The difference is a drop in Blago’s number. More frightening for J-Ry is he isn’t getting the normal return home numbers typical for this time of year. I imagine he will pick up a bit, but this has to be disturbing to his campaign. Trying to sell these changes as momentum or a surge is silly.

Interestingly, the poll shows Durbin under 50% and is the only one doing so. This sample may be slightly biased given Durkin seems to need to rob a bank to get noticed and a reduction in Durbin’s numbers doesn’t make any sense.

LMadigan putting some numbers on

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

LMadigan putting some numbers on Birkett

Trib has her up 6. The numbers may turn out to be worse for the ICFST since they year of everything going wrong is likely to reduce turnout.

Gay Bashing For $800 Alex

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

Gay Bashing For $800 Alex

Tapped has it covered. While I like Sanders in general, this was inexcusable. We ought to be inviting those of the Republican persuasion who support gay rights, not pushing them away.

Oh, and wait, it was nasty and homophobic and not in my damn party!

Note to Self–Disavow All Conspiracy

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

Note to Self–Disavow All Conspiracy Theorists

I don’t want to hear anything about Paul Wellstone being murdered from Freepers or Dem Underground. Nor do I want to hear about Iraqi connections to Oklahoma City of 6 Degrees of Separation and Bill Clinton. I especially don’t want to hear any of this crap from supposed liberals who shouldn’t be stooping to the wingnut level. Be the rational party and you’ll win.

Oh, and I especially don’t want to hear about the international conspiracy of atheistic scientists who are hiding the evidence for creationism.

The worst thing for

ArchPundit October 29, 2002 No Comments

The worst thing for Illinois Death Penalty Reform is

Mass Clemency unfortunately.